Posted on 05/22/2010 3:21:54 PM PDT by Liz
Top 5 lessons from May 18 elections:
One: Appropriators lost. All three defeated members of Congress were members of Appropriations Committees -- Republican Senator Bob Bennett of Utah, Republican-turned-Democratic Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Democratic Congressman Alan Mollohan of West Virginia. All based much of their political appeal on their ability to get money for their states or districts, and for national causes as well. But spending is out of fashion this year. The spontaneous outpouring of opposition to the expansion of government symbolized by but not limited to the tea party movement has been based on opposition to spending, not opposition to taxes. Suddenly pork is not kosher. Additional evidence: the decision of House Appropriations Chairman David Obey to retire after 41 years in Congress. Specter seems to have carried only three of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties: Philadelphia, where Barack Obama’s endorsement undoubtedly helped with black voters; Dauphin, which includes the state capital of Harrisburg; and Lackawanna (Scranton), which has gotten a lot of pork over the years.
Two. Tea tastes good. Rand Paul, the son of Congressman Ron Paul, attributed his 59%-35% victory over party insider favorite Trey Grayson to the spirit of the tea party movement, and there is undoubtedly something to that. He was also helped by the fundraising prowess of his father’s libertarian presidential campaign. Democrats promptly attacked him as an extremist, but the margin of his victory—and the very narrow margin for Democratic nominee Attorney General Jack Conway, the insiders’ candidate—suggest he will be formidable in a state where Barack Obama has never been popular.
Three. The unambiguous 53%-44% victory of Democrat Mark Critz over Republican Tim Burns in the Pennsylvania 12 special election should be a caution to Republicans. Lesson: anti-Obama sentiment will not automatically be transformed into votes for Republican candidates. Critz carried by solid margins the district’s portions of Fayette and Greene Counties, steel-and-coal areas ancestrally Democratic areas that voted (narrowly) for John McCain in November 2008. Ditto Cambria County, Critz’s home base and that of the late 36-year incumbent John Murtha for whom Critz was a staffer, which gave Obama a very narrow margin. Critz was helped by his conservative stands on health care, guns and cap-and-trade, he was helped by the refusal of 2008 Republican nominee and primary contender Bill Russell’s refusal to endorse Burns, and he was helped by the fact that there was a serious statewide contest in the Democratic primary but not in the Republican primary. But in November 2008 a lot of registered Democrats here voted Republican. In May 2010 a smaller proportion of registered Democrats did so. It’s true that Republicans don’t need Pennsylvania 12 for a House majority; it’s about number 60 on their list and they need 40 seats. But Republican strategists shouldn’t believe their election night spin. This was a loss.
Four. The left wing of the Democratic party is not rolling over and playing dead, at least in Democratic primaries. It can claim success in Joe Sestak’s victory in Pennsylvania, in Bill Halter’s good showing in Arkansas (he only started running March 1, but raised millions from labor unions and moveon.org) and perhaps in the (very narrow) victory of Jack Conway in Kentucky. The positions of these candidates on issues like card check, health care and cap-and-trade seem likely to make it hard for them to win in November; note that Sestak’s stands on the last two of these are the opposite of those of Mark Critz, the Democrat who was able to win the Pennsylvania 12 special election. Sestak could well run behind Critz in that district and behind other local Democrats in western Pennsylvania. Halter’s stand for card check and his union money could be a real millstone should he win the runoff against Senator Blanche Lincoln next month and face Rep. John Boozman, who won the Republican nomination without a runoff. Conway’s stands could prove similiarly troublesome in Kentucky against Rand Paul. Nevertheless, the Democratic left is not dead and buried. Polling evidence suggests that the enthusiasm level of some Democrats went up after passage of the health care bill, and these results are more evidence for that proposition. Republicans would be unwise to count on very low turnout by Democrats in November.
Five. Political polarization. My Examiner column written before the results came in, was about the increasing polarization in our politics. At the end I suggested that the results might reduce polarization and added, “but don’t count on it.” The results suggest more polarization in the months ahead.
> Three. The unambiguous 53%-44% victory of Democrat Mark Critz over Republican Tim Burns in the Pennsylvania 12 special election should be a caution to Republicans.
This is the important message. Not winning the House in November would likely be a disaster for the Country, and this is yet another winnable special election that Republicans lost.
” It’s true that Republicans don’t need Pennsylvania 12 for a House majority; it’s about number 60 on their list and they need 40 seats. But Republican strategists shouldn’t believe their election night spin. This was a loss.”
Et tu Barone? Of course this was a loss but the Democrat made believe he was conservative in a 2 to 1 Democrat district, Fast Eddie set the Dem primary on that date, Russell was the people’s choice and the “bosses” blew this one. SHEESH gemme a break with this sophistry please.
Isn’t tea “healthier” for you than coffee? I thought I saw some kind of “study” on that.
...but the Democrat made believe he was conservative in a 2 to 1 Democrat district...
That could be a winning strategy for some dems.
Can Burns beast Crist in the Fall ? Thats the only question that matters, and nobody is proffering an answer on that.
Apparently green tea is the healthiest-—has all those antioxidants.
Yes, but Democrat Critz ran as a pro-life conservative----he ran against Obama's abortion-worshipping agenda. Critz was helped by his conservative stand on guns.....and he trashed Obama's health care and cap-and-trade.
Several elections have been a direct rejection of Obama himself – voters rejected his personal appeals on behalf of Martha Coakley and party-switcher Arlen Specter.
Both Coakley and Specter enjoyed commanding leads over their opponents prior to Obama’s active engagement in their races, with Specter enjoying a 21-point cushion over Dem Rep. Joe Sestak as recently as last month. Sestak defeated Specter 54-46. Similarly, Sen. Scott Brown trailed Coakley by 17 points just two weeks before pulling off his improbable five-point upset victory. Then Obama made an emergency fly-in for Coakley.
Obama campaigned three times in the solid Dem state of NJ-----Biden was there twice. Obama ads ran continuously on pricey NY media. The WH took charge of all aspects of Corzine's campaign. And still incumbent Corzine lost.
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DO THE DEM BIRDBRAINS GET IT YET? Democrats' Arrogance and Sneers At Townhalls Precipitated Their Downfall. Dims are drowning in their own hubris and arrogance.
Obama's losing political altitude faster than Flight 1549. It was only a year ago that the Ohaha team was shoveling dirt on Repub conservatism. James Carville was writing books about 40 years of "Democrat dominance," boasting that the Republican Party was dead. Stupid Liberals believed their own hype that Obama would be the black FDR........conniving to keep him in office 3-4 terms.
The fact that infamous liberals like Kennedy (RI), Dodd, and others are "retiring" indicates they are getting negative feedback back home. They know they can't get reelected, and campaign contributions are drying up, as well.
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Americans are angry at their economic vulnerability. Angry at the deterioration of our culture. Angry that they are forced to subsidize freeloading lawbreakers from Third World satraps so that US politicians can get new voters. Angry at our nation’s deteriorating position in the world, at our debts and deficits, our spending and taxing, our threatened security in a world of weapons of mass destruction.
> Of course this was a loss but the Democrat made believe he was conservative in a 2 to 1 Democrat district, ...
So how do Republicans deal with this in November? If I were Democrat, I would re-use this, obviously winning, strategy.
IMHO, the lesson of Mark Critz’s victory is that Republicans can make major gains this year, but the gains won’t fall into their laps.
> Yes, but Democrat Critz ran as a pro-life conservative
So can every other Democrat. “We forced them to run as conservatives” will be cold comfort if Republicans do not retake the House.
The reprehensible arrogance shown by these smug Elitists during the Townhall Meetings and the war that was declared upon We The People during the DeathCare national disgrace MUST be used against them between now and November.
The American people had the DeathCare shoved down our throats against our will. It’s time to RAM it right back. You know where!
As long as they are united against Ohaha....that’s all that matters.
The video of Bwaney Fwank sneering at townhallers should be played 24/7.
So how do Republicans deal with this in November? If I were Democrat, I would re-use this, obviously winning, strategy.> Of course this was a loss but the Democrat made believe he was conservative in a 2 to 1 Democrat district, ...
It depends some on how many votes and speeched you have to backtrack on to be a born-again "conservative." This particular Democrat wasn't an incumbent . . .
They had damned well BETTER be angry!
Bumper stickers, billboards, YouTubes, yard signs should all go out now. Give them hell 24/7 until November 2nd. Use their words, their arrogance, and their votes against the American people to nail them. Expose their dirt publicly.
I haven’t talk to a single person that isn’t big-time angry and who doesn’t want them gone. Absolutely no one, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. All of them despise the scum in DC.
Mmmmmmm....love it. We gotta get that on a tee shirt.
> As long as they are united against Ohaha....that’s all that matters.
Yes, they will be against Obama until after the election. Remember Stupak - a reliable pro-life Democrat?
> It depends some on how many votes and speeched you have to backtrack on to be a born-again “conservative.” This particular Democrat wasn’t an incumbent . . .
This would require Republicans to do their home work and prepare multiple overlapping attack plans. If they are busy celebrating the expected November victory we will have 2 more years of Democratic domination.
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