Posted on 05/23/2010 6:44:16 PM PDT by neverdem
Conventional wisdom: it is a fickle, fickle thing. The latest example of the incredible lightness of opinion in today’s media and political climate is the reaction to the results of the race in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district. Politicians and pundits, right- as well as left-leaning, are taking it as evidence that Republican hopes of retaking the House this November are too optimistic. That may turn out to be the case, but PA-12 is hardly enough evidence to warrant the conclusion.
First, let’s place that district in context. Yes, it was one of Obama’s ten worst Appalachian congressional district’s during his 2008 primary contest with Hillary Clinton. But it was his best of those ten, by far, during the general election (he got 49 percent of the vote), and it was the only one of the ten that John Kerry carried in 2004. The reason: its party registration is so overwhelmingly Democratic that even when lots of conservative Democrats peel off, a majority or near-majority remains for the party’s nominee. So while the Republicans may have believed their own hype in the run-up to this week’s special election, PA-12 was always going to be tough for them.
Now let’s look at three Gallup surveys released within the past two days. One notes that so far in 2010, only 23 percent of Americans have been satisfied with the way things are going—well below the 40 percent average of the past three decades, and the lowest reading recorded in a mid-term election year going back to 1982. [LINK to Gallup, May 19] A second survey observes that the two political parties have been at or near parity among registered voters since January in the generic congressional ballot. This is especially significant because (as the survey shows) “the structure of voting preferences seen in the first three months of the [election] year generally carried through to the end.” And parity among registered voters would be bad news for Democrats: on average, Republicans have enjoyed about a five-point turnout edge in midterm elections.
The third survey underscores this point. It highlights a 19-point gap between conservatives and liberals in their enthusiasm about voting in this year’s midterm elections. And 62 percent of those who describe themselves as “very conservative” (10 percent of registered voters) say that they are very enthusiastic, versus only 44 percent of those who term themselves “very liberal” (a scant 4 percent of registered voters).
Connect the dots and we have the portrait of an electorate that’s highly dissatisfied with the status quo and that seems poised to give more votes in the aggregate to Republican than to Democratic candidates this fall. I don’t know how many House seats that translates into, but I’d be surprised if the number didn’t start with a “3” (at least). As far as I can see, only a big change in the economy—a significant increase in the rate of GDP growth leading to a noticeable reduction in top-line unemployment numbers and a bump up in real disposable income for those who have jobs—would be enough to change the overall outlook for November.
Its an over analyzed race in a democrat heavy district.
I’m surprised to see this from New Republic. But it’s clear that Republican pickups aren’t going to fall into their laps. They have to make it happen.
Dems will do the same thing this November they did in 2006 - run candidates who pretend they are conservative but will vote exactly how Obama/Pelosi need them to vote when it counts. This is why we have Obambacare now. Many of Rahm’s lying 2006 candidates will be booted out in November, but the damage is done.
I will be surprised if Critz is any different. If Pelosi needs his vote for future healthcare votes or cap & trade, she will get it and the people will be fools once more. I expect that most dems running this November will be no different - running as hard as they can from Obama, that is until it really counts.
Looks like the Dems are still playing the Bart Stupak, Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu card; “You can trust us we are the moderate democrats. We’re not the scary San Francisco, New York, Chicago liberals.” The white blue collar Democrat voters are the dumbest of all. How many times have they been played by the sharpster Dem pols?
we are not going to win every race, just more than usual...
Just like a single Pub victory in Obama’s alleged home district in Hawaii doesn’t change anything.
Actually, I’m pretty encouraged if they’re this relieved to keep a safe seat. They’re trying to act like it’s a pickup from a red district but no one’s really buying into the spin.
All I can say is ALOHA DEMS!!
Critz stated repeatedly during the campaign that he would have voted against Obamacare. I don’t quite see how his victory in a heavily Democrat district is a win for Obama Democrats.
We need to watch out and learn from that race. The guy tried to run as a conservative.
If he was a true conservative, he wouldn’t have been a democrat.
People are suckers.
It seems that there are a whole lot of those (fools) in Pennsylvania's 12th! Their previous genius representative called them rednecks who cling to their bibles and guns and they still voted for him. The same rep, rest his soul, accused the military of harassing Iraqi civilians and killing them in the middle of the night and the 'apparent thinking?' voters of Pa-12, many who have military ties, voted the clown back in? I suspect that the water in the Youghiogheny and Monongahela Rivers is contaminated to the point where the voters in that region can't think straight?
Thinking Burns had a shot in this district with a 2:1 voter registraton against him was just wishful thinking. Burns was doomed when Fast Eddie called the special election to coincide with the rats' statewide primary.
They got this false hope from statewide victories in NJ, VA & MA, states with large numbers of independents. IIRC, registered independents outnumber the rats in NJ & MA.
I wouldn't be surprised if many of those independents are former pubbies who became disgusted with all the RINOs in the GOP, much like the Conservative Party in NY.
I liked Jack Kelly's analysis of PA here:
Dems will do the same thing this November they did in 2006 - run candidates who pretend they are conservative but will vote exactly how Obama/Pelosi need them to vote when it counts. This is why we have Obambacare now. Many of Rahm’s lying 2006 candidates will be booted out in November, but the damage is done.”
Sooner or later the lying comes home to roost.
For the liberal liar Chet Edwards, who is in a very Republican district but survived year after year as a smiling porker who’d savage his Republican opponents ... the gig is up, he’s 10 points down, and his Republican opponent will ahve plenty of money to match Chet’s warchest.
Critz, a non-incumbent got away with it ... but few others will. In 1994, most of the open seats were won by Republicans. Same will happen here.
“I expect that most dems running this November will be no different - running as hard as they can from Obama, that is until it really counts.” But they have those votes to live down.
Just dumb.
Crtiz was Murtha's guy, and he managed to identify himself effectively with Johnstown voters as such. This was a plus for him the Republican couldn't claim.
We are not going to win all of them. There are too man idiots, fools, traitors, and parasites for that to happen.
But, if we do not begin to turn things around in November..... I think anyone with any intelligence knows the alternative.
I agree with this piece. There is something playing out that is really going to send an earthquake through politics. Burns lost because of confluence of events that came from having the primary on the same day as the special election also the local dynamic involving Russel voter angst and Critz running to the right of Murtha didn’t help. Burns will win this seat come Nov.
I Googled and they did.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.