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Top hurricane forecasters see "hell of a year"
Reuters on Yahoo ^ | 5/26/10 | Tom Brown

Posted on 05/26/2010 12:03:24 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks; Bob J; Just A Nobody; kristinn
will reap huge NEGATIVE dividends, if your scenario comes true.

Their negatives won't mean a whole lot compared to what many sections of the country will see and casualties incurred, God forbid.

The worst is what happens to the population and we'll face disasters we never thought could happen.

Imagine, our air traffic facing landing accidents on slick runways in hit areas, deforestation galore, hydrocarbon vapor explosions in population centers, inside restaurant kitchens and where open flames are, on the roads with hot pavements and car engines. Not to talk about run-off to sewers and lighting up methane gas incidents.

Yes, it ain't gasoline or alcohol, thank God. The crude oil vapor pressure is a lot lower than lighter hydrocarbons.

41 posted on 05/26/2010 4:09:29 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: GOPJ; Bob J

Sorry, GOPJ1 I meant to answer you and instead I typed Bob J!

Sorry, Bob J!


42 posted on 05/26/2010 4:14:48 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: CholeraJoe
Haven’t they said this every year for the last 2, and been wrong?

Global warming predicts that there will be more hurricanes. If that is false, then that casts doubt on global warming. Can't have that.

Current models have Solar Cycle 24 being the lowest sunspot cycle since the Dalton Minimum (the cycle where we had "The Year Without A Summer"), and recent readings show Cycle 24 seems to be fizzling (drooping black dotted line is actual, red line is prediction):


43 posted on 05/26/2010 4:17:56 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Public healthcare looks like it will work as well as public housing did.)
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To: melancholy
A hurricane feeds on warm water to add strength. In this case, it may weaken over the huge oil slick, but it will “vacuum” oil and water before hitting land.

Do hurricanes rain salt water?

The rain from hurricanes comes from evaporated water. To the extent that oil slicks hamper evaporation, they will reduce hurricane power.

44 posted on 05/26/2010 4:24:35 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Public healthcare looks like it will work as well as public housing did.)
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To: PapaBear3625
Do hurricanes rain salt water?

No. The hurricane's wind centrifugal force acts like a giant agitator equipped with a vacuum that evaporates more water at the lower pressure. The oil/dispersant will be entrained (suspended) and lifted up on the walls because of the pressure gradient is the driving force. The higher the elevation, the lower the pressure, results in more vacuum effect.

The rain from hurricanes comes from evaporated water. To the extent that oil slicks hamper evaporation, they will reduce hurricane power.

I said that much in my previous post. However, the hurricane may go down in strength by one category, but it can still make landfall at substantial strength.

45 posted on 05/26/2010 4:45:02 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

Thank God crude has higher specifc gravity than lighter hydrocarbons.

A small storm won’t be as devastating as hurricane wind velocity, agitation area and vacuum effect in lifting heavy crude particles.


46 posted on 05/26/2010 5:07:45 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: melancholy
At this point it won’t much matter,,,

We will get oil on the coast whether the storm is

large or small,,,

The larger the storm the more the chance of water spouts,,,

IIRC : Just a few days after the blowout a small storm

came through and washer oil over the booms,,,

Once the oil gets into that marsh there is no way to

clean it up...

47 posted on 05/26/2010 6:01:47 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: o2bfree

Temps are far below normal this year in the Northern Hemisphere so most likely there will be few if any hurricanes.


48 posted on 05/26/2010 6:06:26 PM PDT by o2bfree (This president is giving me a headache!)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

Absolutely. Any storms will bring more oil to the the beaches and beyond.


49 posted on 05/26/2010 7:00:20 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: o2bfree

Two words...La Nina.


50 posted on 05/26/2010 7:04:42 PM PDT by stboz
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To: pgkdan; CholeraJoe

But they know how to control Global warming right out of your pocket into alBore’s bank account!!!


51 posted on 05/27/2010 6:00:53 AM PDT by danamco (")
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To: danamco

Not so much...William Gray may be wrong about his hurricaine predictions but he’s not a GW alarmist...in fact he called bulls*t on the scientific consensus a couple of years ago.


52 posted on 05/27/2010 6:17:04 AM PDT by pgkdan (I Miss Ronald Reagan!)
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To: NormsRevenge; AFPhys; NautiNurse

Fox also has an article on this....

Very Severe Hurricane Season Ahead, Say Top Meterologists
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/05/27/active-hurricane-seasons-record-year-say-scientists/


53 posted on 05/27/2010 8:51:25 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: CholeraJoe

Seems to me that they had one thunderstorm make landfall last year.


54 posted on 05/27/2010 8:52:54 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: don'tbedenied

LOL!

That’s great.

Likely HE’LL be right......


55 posted on 05/27/2010 8:55:25 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: NormsRevenge

They need to work on getting the oil mopped up before hurricane season is on us.

Hay, the quicker picker upperer! (oil remedy)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2507615/posts


56 posted on 05/27/2010 8:59:52 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: NormsRevenge

That’s all we need; a hurricaine to pick up all that oily water and spray it all over Arkansas.


57 posted on 05/27/2010 9:00:22 AM PDT by csmusaret (Remember, half the people in this country are below average)
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To: rarestia
It’s pretty hot down here already, but I don’t see the right combination of factors contributing to an increase above what we normally see. Given the frigid winter we Floridians experienced, I’m going to say that the hurricane season is light, but I’m no meteorologist.

You're right about the water temps.

The surface water temperature has to be above 80 F for hurricanes to even get started.

This map shows the water temperatures and there's a black dashed line that shows the 80 F mark.

I don't recall from year to year exactly what the temp maps look like, but I'd say that we've got some breathing room as far as hurricane development goes.

The warmest water is near land, which inhibits hurricane strength to begin with, and the water out to sea is cool enough that even if we get a tropical depression started, it's not likely to really strengthen much.

By the time it gets to the water warm enough to be a problem the land is interfering.

58 posted on 05/27/2010 9:08:28 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: GOPJ; melancholy

The storm surge is way more likely to bring in a lot of oil than it being picked up by rain would.

That oil will stick to anything it comes in contact with. The water will recede somewhat clear, but what a mess being left behind.


59 posted on 05/27/2010 9:12:32 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: Bob Buchholz
a SWAG is still a guess.

I think this is just a WAG ;^)

A S WA G is much better than a WAG.

A WAG is simply a Wild Ass Guess.

A SWAG is a SCIENTIFIC Wild Ass Guess.

Much much more accurate than a mere WAG!

60 posted on 05/27/2010 9:41:37 AM PDT by N. Theknow (Kennedys: Can't fly, can't ski, can't drive, can't skipper a boat, but they know what's best.)
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