Posted on 06/01/2010 5:46:41 PM PDT by randita
Good! Go Susana!
Let me explain how Alabama primaries work. Only a few people actually go vote in a primary based in Alabama based on what party they truly believe in for statewide races.
The overwhelming majority of counties in Alabama are under one party control where either the Republican or Democratic primary determines who will control the county offices. Almost all of Alabama’s high population majority white urban counties are counties where local races are decided in the Republican Primary. Roy Moore is unpopular in metro areas. That’s why he’s losing.
Roy Moore’s base of rural supporters, they may be Republicans but most vote in the Democratic primary because if they don’t they lose their effective vote for county sheriff, county clerk, state legislature, etc.
This means that the Republican primary electorate in Alabama is more moderate than the general election Republican electorate and the Democratic primary electorate is far more conservative than the Dem general election electorate.
Roy Moore lost because all his voters were voting for Ron Sparks against Artur Davis while they were voting for sheriff.
As I get older, the years all squish together! ;>)
Good inside baseball to know.
That’s not really a good thing. I think Brooks is electable but it will be a far tougher race than Griffith-anyone else would have been.
Brooks is not really well known outside of Huntsville and Raby could concievably run against a certain neighborhood in Huntsville that is viewed as snotty (and a base of Brooks support) in the moral rural, still Dixiecrat areas of the district like Jackson, the Shoals and Lawrence.
Dems aren’t going to seriously contest AL-5.
Thank you both, sounds like a great candidate. Do you think she will do well against The Dem candidate Gov Richardson’s Lt Gov ?
What happened to Les Phillips?
Dems might not. Steve Raby will. He is a longtime veteran of Alabama politics and he has done political consulting work for both Democrats and Republicans. He knows how both sides win campaigns and why. Mo Brooks only knows how to win votes in the Huntsville area.
Mo Brooks has Obama’s residual unpopularity going for him and thats it. If the race is solely about Obama Brooks will win. If Raby is allowed to pivot himself the way Cramer always did there’s no telling who wins.
In the 5th McCain steamrolled in every county in the district. Democrats still won on almost every other statewide ballot in the district. Obama or not the political machinery in the 5th outside of Madison, Limestone and Morgan is still Dem and the top of the Dem ticket will be someone who will play very well in North Alabama.
And Brooks will only have his own fundraising and the RCCC to back him because the lions share of state Republican (and Dem for that matter) money is going to the legislature because for the first time ever the legislature could go and who wins it in 2010 writes the rules in the state for the next 10 years.
See my #97
Susana will be on the live stream in the next 10 minutes or so.
I had to be so blunt, but what happened to him is exactly what you’d expect to happen to a black candidate in North Alabama, no different than Artur Davis.
The idea that either Phillips or Davis really had a real shot was an idea that was only held by the most idealistic of people who refuse to accept that Alabama is what it is. All the liberals in this state right now are howling about their hero Artur losing like he did. Anyone who knew Alabama politics saw this one coming the minute Davis ran.
It won't help in Rio Arriba County!
They'd give Pancho Villa the boot if he was a Republican.
Did ant of the other Gopers back Susana besides Sarah.
Any news on Jon Barela?
ant= any
Send the ex-Marine (spit) back to his hole.
Please note: There are former Marines (SALUTE!) and ex-Marines (spit).
The 5th was long overdue to go GOP at the Congressional level, it really should’ve flipped in 1994. It was solely because we ran the retread from ‘94 that we lost in ‘08. I don’t expect the Dems to reclaim this seat, and the trickle-down realignment in the district is coming as well. The Dems know it’s happening and there’s little they can do to stop the state from flipping to GOP control. Once that occurs, the county offices, which you’re always talking about, will follow.
Did Mullins have a nice safe lead?
RA’s a hard nut to crack. Tierra o Muerte
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.