Does this mean The Bowery Boys won't be able to go swimming in the East River any more?
Posted on 06/04/2010 4:09:20 AM PDT by Scanian
New supercomputer studies suggest it is "very likely" ocean currents will carry oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico around the tip of Florida and thousands of miles up the U.S. East Coast this summer, researchers announced Thursday.
"It is truly a simulation, not a prediction," said Terry Wallace, principal associate director for science, technology and engineering at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, which collaborated on the project. "But it shows that when you inject something into the Gulf, it is likely to have much larger consequences."
So far the oil has been confined by strong eddies, but that is almost certainly a temporary respite, say oceanographers.
Researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., and the Los Alamos laboratory used a $100 million computer model of the world's ocean-circulation patterns to assess how currents could sweep the oil out of the Gulf.
The simulations show a strong Loop Current almost inevitably will pull the oil into the powerful Gulf Stream. It would then travel up the Atlantic coast at a speed of about 100 miles a day.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
If the slick hits Long Island and Cape Cod, Obama is toast!
Who cares what the models say, I want to know what the rock stars think.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvorqcgcdtw
0ilbama’s fault!
My God, this is really starting to look like a huge Black Swan.
model? no pics? is she hot?
That’s one way to disperse it.
Thought it was gonna be about Heidi Klum.. or at least Seal.
Modeling and simulation is dependent on setting conditions, standards, and limitations at the start of the modeling process. Historically, modeling and simulations do NOT deal well with emergent "pop-up" events i.e. "reality" which can skew the validity and/or fidelity of the model results.
For example, I would love to see the sensitivity analysis of their model results to a Category 3 storm tracking across the Caribbean, up the Gulf Stream, and going ashore between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras (not an uncommon storm track). Now look at a Category 4 tracking across the Keys and show me the deltas in the model results. Are they significant? If so, then the current predicted results may not be worth a warm bucket of spit.
(For a quick&dirty study of M&S limitations, consider the recent controversy over grounding air traffic in Europe based on atmospheric modeling of the Icelandic volcano.)
As I've reminded my M&S people: "Modeling and simulation is nice, but reality bites."
Did Bill Clinton buy a Porsche in Miami for a trip up I-95?
Dont worry. Obama will change the gulf stream and point it toward Africa or Brazil.
Its just a shame he has to bother with this before he cools the planet and lowers the Oceans levels. I was so looking forward to seeing him do that first.
I call BS on this article. Common sense says dilution is the solution. You will never notice it outside the Gulf.
the slick will never come to the Hamptons! It simply cannot afford it! sarc
This is almost poetic.
Remember Obama declareing he would lower the Sea levels?
This is Karma. To be so arrogant, and then this slaps you in the face. Just a little hole to plug. And he goes golfing.....
Will this threaten the Harlem River Trout?
They are already difficult to set a hook in without being oil covered.
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