Posted on 06/13/2010 4:52:21 PM PDT by turfmann
As you have probably seen and maybe feel yourselves, there are several things that do not appear to make sense regarding the actions of attack against the well. Don't feel bad, there is much that doesn't make sense even to professionals unless you take into account some important variables that we are not being told about. There seems to me to be a reluctance to face what cannot be termed anything less than grim circumstances in my opinion. There certainly is a reluctance to inform us regular people and all we have really gotten is a few dots here and there...
(Excerpt) Read more at theoildrum.com ...
Some people have suggested that the well casing is being eroded by a sand blasting effect.
And I noted that for as long as there has been oil racing out of the top of this thing, there is no large pile of sand underneath it. For a large quantity of sand to push through it and erode the restrictions would mean that the sand would be signficant in size and quantity and precipitate out of the stream of oil and gas. We’re not seeing it. I’m sure there’s some, but it seems to be negligible. This opinion is shared by pretty much everyone watching the drama on the seafloor.
nuke wont work
As I noted Tuesday, there is growing evidence that BP's oil well - technically called the "well casing" or "well bore" - has suffered damage beneath the level of the sea floor.
The evidence is growing stronger and stronger that there is substantial damage beneath the sea floor. Indeed, it appears that BP officials themselves have admitted to such damage. This has enormous impacts on both the amount of oil leaking into the Gulf, and the prospects for quickly stopping the leak this summer.
On May 31st, the Washington Post noted:
Sources at two companies involved with the well said that BP also discovered new damage inside the well below the seafloor and that, as a result, some of the drilling mud that was successfully forced into the well was going off to the side into rock formations.
"We discovered things that were broken in the sub-surface," said a BP official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. He said that mud was making it "out to the side, into the formation."
OK, let’s stick with general theory, rather than specific fact.
Is it not true, that if the casing is intact, the well could (in theory at least) simply be capped and that would stop the flow? I think the answer to that is yes. Correct me if I’m wwrong.
If the answer is yes, then why has it been said that this won’t be stopped until the two control wells are done?
Are they expecting NOT to be able to cap it?
Thanks.
TW said otherwise, which is why I wanted his opinion.
Not sand, but a sand blasting “effect” caused by various particles in the high pressure plume. Apparently, from what I read, there are abrasive particles in that flow, and the flow itself is eroding the well casing. Others have stated that oil leaking form the sea bed itself would indicate that the integrity of the well casing has been breached in order for that to happen.
I can’t really say for sure, because I have no expertise, however, we are somewhere around day 55 now, and they are nowhere even close to stopping this devastating flow, and that alarms me greatly.
I read something very similar here the other day...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2531915/posts
Someone used similar information and turned the entire south black heh.
It’s not reasoning it is a conspiratorial guess.
Unfortunately none of them could say with any certainty just how much oil is in the reserve in question because, for one thing, the oil industry and secrecy have always been synonymous.
According to BP data from about five years ago, there are four separate reservoirs containing a total of 2.5 billion barrels (barrels not gallons). One of the reservoirs has 1.5 billion barrels. I saw an earlier post here quoting an Anadarko Petroleum report which set the total amount at 2.3 billion barrels.
That is a lot of oil.
Thank you very much, Star Traveler
I think this information buttresses the original hypothesis of this thread. I am really starting to feel deep down in my bones that this is a game changer. This is bad, bad news. In the very least, I think we can safely state as fact that the extent of the damage done so far is being hidden, almost no effort is being made to start clean up (because what is the point of doing that when this hole is still gushing 24/7...), and BP does not have the technology to stop this flow, at least not today, and not tomorrow.
Deepwater Horizon Incident, Gulf of Mexico
And guess who the number 1 shareholder of BP stock is right now ?
Who Owns BP? Biggest Shareholder is JPMorgan Chase
According to the European financial database Amadeus, JPMorgan Chase is the No. 1 holder of stock in BP. That distinction also has earned the Wall Street bank the title of “Global Ultimate Owner” of the oil giant, as it owns 28.34% of BP. Next, at 7.99%, is Legal and General Group, a British-based financial services company with assets of more than $350 billion. Another U.S. investment firm, BlackRock Inc., owns 7.1% of BP. Other owners include the governments of Kuwait, Norway, Singapore and China.
I disagree that it is not reasoning, and there is obviously a conspiracy to cover the extent of this catastrophe in as much as there is not constant 24/7 coverage of this, nor is there a constant procession of dead, oily animals on TV as there would damn sure be if Bush or McCain was president.
Those maps indicate that oil will be hitting or is hititng Navarre Beach :(
Thanks, Barry.
Trajectories
Onshore (SE/S/SW) winds are forecast to continue into next week at speeds less than10 knots. Persistent onshore winds have resulted in northward movement of the slick towards the Mississippi/Alabama barrier islands and the Florida Panhandle. Coastal regions in Mississippi Sound west of Freeport may continue to experience shoreline contacts throughout this forecast period. Persistent southeasterly winds are also resulting in movement of oil towards the Chandeleur Islands, Breton Sound, and the Mississippi Delta. These regions are also threatened by shoreline contacts within this forecast period.
It would be irrational to think that there’s no erosion of the restriction on the flow. The well is not wide open or even any small fraction of wide open. This erosion would be whatever small openings are in the BOP devices, etc.
For the casing or any other part of the well to get eroded, it would require a LOT of movement, at high speed and force past it. Meaning that anywhere the well is large or the pipe is large and the velocity is slow, no signficant erosion’s going to occur.
You can’t “kill” the well by turning off a valve at the top. More importantly, the means by which to “kill” it permanently generally is done by opening the darn thing up big time and then using the tools to stop the flow. The point of all this is to get to the point, where you can stanch the flow of oil/gas all the way at the bottom of the well, and cap/plug everything off by filling it with cement, including any compromise of the casing seals, etc, any leaks that may exist around the outside of the casing, etc.
Well you've got another couple of months to become more alarmed. The final stopping the flow won't occur until the relief wells finish their tap with the well bore somewhere down toward the bottom. Until then all they are trying to do now is capture as much as possible of the surfaced crude.
Yes, I agree with that, but I am worried that the whole structure is going to collapse before they ever even reach that point.
Honestly, my hope is that BP does have the expertise to get this job done, and fast, because if they can’t I don’t know who can, and there just is no telling what damage an endless flow could do.
I mean, just imaginge for the sake of argument, that this flow continued for 30 years, and left the south east united states uninhabitable...
Understood. If they can get those relief wells to work and stop this flow, then God Bless them. At that point, at least we can really begin to clean up. If those relief wells fail, for whatever reason, I think I may just check into a sanitarium, because I will definitely lose it.
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