Posted on 07/01/2010 8:57:27 AM PDT by MissesBush
Republican Pat Toomey continues to hold a modest advantage over Democrat Joe Sestak in the race to replace Arlen Specter as U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey attracting 45% of the vote, while Sestak earns 39%. Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate in the race, and 11% are undecided. The June 29 survey shows the race has changed little since the beginning of the month.
This is the seventh Rasmussen Reports survey of the race in 2010, and a review of prior results highlights just how stable it's been to date. Toomey’s support has stayed in a very narrow range of 42% to 47%.
Sestak’s support has showed more movement, ranging from a low of 36% to a high of 46%. However, most of that movement came as he surged to victory over Specter in the Democratic primary. Other than polling conducted just before and just after the primary election, the Democratic nominee’s support has remained between 36% and 38%.
Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans support Toomey, while 70% of Democrats say they’re voting for Sestak. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the Republican has a nine-point advantage.
Toomey is now viewed Very Favorably by 17% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 13%. For Sestak, those numbers are 16% on the positive side and 16% on the negative side. For both men, the numbers are down a bit from earlier in the month.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
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This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on June 29, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The national political issues environment remains challenging for Democrats with the economy as the most important issue.
If the Obama administration files a lawsuit against the state of Arizona over its new immigration law, that could add to the challenges for Democratic candidates like Sestak. Just 31% of Pennsylvania voters favor such a legal challenge, while 55% are opposed. Nationally, only 26% favor a legal challenge to that law.
Most Pennsylvania voters (54%) also favor repeal of the recently passed health care law. That is close to the national average. Forty-two percent (42%) oppose repeal. These numbers include 40% who Strongly Favor repeal and 32% who are Strongly Opposed.
Toomey earns 82% support from those who Strongly Favor repeal. Seventy-four percent (74%) of those who are Strongly Opposed back Sestak.
Forty-seven percent (47%) of all voters in Pennsylvania now approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 53% disapprove. That is little changed from the beginning of June and is consistent with national averages reported in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
See the latest Rasmussen Reports 2010 Senate polling from Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.
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I live in PA, and I do talk to some clueless people.
It’s impossible to predict what will happen here when the THUG FACTOR in Phila kicks in.
45 / 39 ain’t “modest”.
prisoner6
As long as the lead is surpassed by the # of undecideds, this is a toss up.
Undecided=Dead Voters.
They don’t poll well but always show up on election day.
So do the New Negro Panthers.
It is in Pennsylvania, where the Philadelphia suburbs are swept with Democrat GOTV teams and the GOP doesn't even bother to return phone calls to groups volunteering to help. The polls aren't "who is going to go out there and pull the lever" for Election Day--the only poll that matters.
Plus those who don’t know which one is the Democrat (that they’re supposed to pick, according to Jon Stewart, their union boss, minister, community organizer, newscaster, etc.).
Looking good so far.
I do worry about the 11% “undecideds” and the Philly Fraud Machine.
*ping*
Horrors. The Crats are in for it in November if we survive that long.
Good news but don’t get cocky ping
Keep in mind undecideds break 2/3rds in favor of the challenger. Being as Sestak represents the party currently holding this seat, he can be inserted into the incumbent role here. Even if 2/3rds of the undecideds don’t break for Toomey, it’s likely the majority will.
Are you sure these poll numbers are correct? The Daily Kos has it Sestak (D) 96%, Toomey (R) 4%
Toomey should be @ 70%+.
Should, but the US as we knew it is gone. Even in the face of blatant socialism, the dems are competitive. Sure, they’ll lose big this year and maybe 2012. After that, ....it’s looking grim.
There are several congressional polls on Rasmussen’s site that I’m having trouble believing and this is one of them.
PA has let conservatives down time and again and I see no reason to believe that 2010 will be any different.
Friends of ours went to a family party a month ago, and one of their democrat lawyer relatives was loud and annoying all night. All he did was talk about how dumb Republicans are. This guy lives in a Phila suburb.
Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate in the race, and 11% are undecided.Thanks MissesBush.
It’s impossible to predict what will happen here when the THUG FACTOR in Phila kicks in.
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That’s scary.
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