Posted on 07/17/2010 9:40:36 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
We've made a much requested change to the Master List format. We now show an "Incumbent or Open" column that will make it much easier to see which races are in districts where the seat is OPEN and whether it is a Republican seat or a Democrat seat. For those cases where there is an incumbent we now indicate whether the incumbent is a Republican or a Democrat.
And just a reminder: The Master List has 91 seats and 79 of those are Dem Seats. These are the vulnerable Democrats. We need to generate a net 39 seat pickup from those 79 Dems and right now the KHR projection is for a net pickup of 30 seats.
Other changes: Martha Roby won the runoff in AL-02 and she will be on the Republican ticket running against the Incumbent Dem Bobby Bright.
There were 10 changes in our "Expert" ratings by Election Projection and one from Real Clear Politics. All were favorable to the Republicans. So it was a shutout week for the Dems. Nice.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those change leave our index at -.353. That looks less favorable than last week because of some errors that were discovered in the RCP entries that have been corrected. In any case, this was a good week for the Republicans.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.
Note: On July 20th Georgia will be holding their primary. We have Georgia's District 8 on our Key House Races list so we will be watching that one for sure.
Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:
August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri
August 5: Tennessee
August 10: Colorado, Conecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary
August 17: Washington and Wyoming
August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont
August 28: Lousiana
| District | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent or Open |
Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | |||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||
| AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Martha Roby | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | |||
| AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Open D | Rick Crawford | AR | 18-May | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | |||
| AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Open D | Tim Griffin | AR | 18-May | Leans R | AR | 2 | |||
| AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 1 | |
| AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 5 | |
| AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Jonathan Paton | Jesse Kelly | Brian Miller | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 8 | |
| CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent R | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | CA | 3 | |||
| CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | David Harmer | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | CA | 11 | |||
| CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Van Tran | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | CA | 47 | |||
| CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Scott Tipton | Bob McConnell | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | CO | 3 | ||
| CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Cory Gardner | Tom Lucero | Dean Madere | CO | 10-Aug | Toss-Up | CO | 4 | |
| CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Dan Debicella | Robert Merkle | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 4 | ||
| CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Sam Caligiuri | Justin Bernier | Mark Greenberg | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 5 | |
| DE | AL | Dem Primary | Open R | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | DE | AL | ||
| FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 2 | |
| FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Daniel Webster | Kurt Kelly | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | |
| FL | 12 | Dem Primary | Open R | Dennis Ross | Randy Wilkinson | John Lindsey Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 12 | |
| FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 22 | |||
| FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Craig Miller | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | |
| FL | 25 | Dem Primary | Open R | David Rivera | Paul Crespo | Marili Cancio (I) | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | FL | 25 | |
| GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Austin Scott | Paul Rish | Angela Hicks | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | GA | 8 | |
| HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent R | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | |||
| IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Brad Zaun | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | IA | 3 | |||
| ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Raul Labrador | ID | 25-May | Leans D | ID | 1 | |||
| IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 8 | |||
| IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | |||
| IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Leans D | IL | 11 | |||
| IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | |||
| IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Likely D | IN | 2 | |||
| IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Open D | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | |||
| IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Todd Young | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | |||
| KS | 3 | Open D (Moore) | Open D | Kevin Yoder | Patricia Lightner | KS | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | KS | 3 | ||
| LA | 2 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | LA | 2 | |||
| LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Open D | Hunt Downer | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Leans R | LA | 3 | |
| MA | 10 | Open D (Delahunt) | Open D | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | |
| MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Leans R | MD | 1 | |
| MI | 1 | Open D (Stupak) | Open D | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Tom Stillings | Jason Allen | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 1 | |
| MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Tim Walberg | Brian Rooney | Marvin Carlson | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | |
| MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | "Rocky" Raczowski | Paul Welday | Anna Janek | MI | 3-Aug | Likely D | MI | 9 | |
| MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | MN | 1 | ||||
| MN | 6 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Likely R | MN | 6 | |||
| MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Bill Stouffer | Vicky Hartzler | Art Madden | MO | 3-Aug | Leans D | MO | 4 | |
| MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Alan Nunnelee | MS | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | |||
| NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Leans D | NC | 8 | |||
| ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Rick Berg | ND | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | ND | AL | |||
| NE | 2 | Tom White | Incumbent R | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Likely R | NE | 2 | |||
| NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Frank Guinta | Rich Ashooh | Bob Bestani | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | ||
| NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Open D | Jennifer Horn | Charlie Bass | Bob Giuda | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | |
| NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Jon Runyan | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | NJ | 3 | |||
| NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Jon Barela | NM | 1-Jun | Leans D | NM | 1 | |||
| NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | Leans R | NM | 2 | |||
| NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Dr. Joe Heck | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | |||
| NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Chris Cox | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 1 | |
| NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 13 | ||
| NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Nan Hayworth | Thomas DeChiaro | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 19 | ||
| NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 20 | |||
| NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 23 | ||
| NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Richard Hanna | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | |||
| NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Ann Marie Buerkle | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 25 | |||
| NY | 29 | Open D (Massa) | Open D | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Leans R | NY | 29 | |
| OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 1 | |||
| OH | 2 | Surya Yalamanchili | Incumbent R | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Safe R | OH | 2 | |||
| OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Tom Ganley | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 13 | |||
| OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Steve Stivers | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 15 | |||
| OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Jim Renacci | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 16 | |||
| OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Bob Gibbs | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 18 | |||
| PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 3 | |||
| PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 4 | |||
| PA | 6 | Manan Trivedi | Incumbent R | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Likely R | PA | 6 | |||
| PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Open D | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | |||
| PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Mike Fitzpatrick | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 8 | |||
| PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Tom Marino | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 10 | |||
| PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Lou Barletta | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | |||
| PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 12 | |||
| PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | David Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 17 | |||
| SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Mick Mulvaney | SC | 8-Jun | Leans D | SC | 5 | |||
| SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Kristi Noem | SD | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | SD | AL | |||
| TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Jack Bailey | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Kent Greenough | TN | 5-Aug | Likely D | TN | 4 | |
| TN | 6 | Open D (Gordon) | Open D | Jim Tracy | Diane Black | Lou Ann Zelenik | TN | 5-Aug | Likely R | TN | 6 | |
| TN | 8 | Open D (Tanner) | Open D | Stephen Fincher | George Flinn | TN | 5-Aug | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | ||
| TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | Toss-Up | TX | 17 | |||
| TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Francisco "Quico" Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | TX | 23 | |||
| VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | |||
| VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Robert Hurt | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | |||
| VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Morgan Griffith | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 9 | |||
| VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Keith Fimian | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 11 | |||
| WA | 3 | Open D (Baird) | Open D | Jaime Herrera | David Castillo | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | |
| WA | 8 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | WA | 8 | |||
| WI | 7 | Open D (Obey) | Open D | Sean Duffy | Dan Mielke | WI | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | WI | 7 | ||
| WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | Marc Savard | WI | 14-Sep | Leans D | WI | 8 | ||
| WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | Open D | David B. McKinley | WV | 11-May | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | |||
| Code | Color Code Indicates | |||||||||||
| New Entry or Major Change | Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List | -0.353 | ||||||||||
| Upcoming Primary or Runoff | ||||||||||||
| Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary | ||||||||||||
| Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat | ||||||||||||
| Open Dem Seat | ||||||||||||
| Updated | 17-Jul-10 | |||||||||||
| Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | |||||||||||
| From | To | |||||||||||
| Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | ||||||||||
| Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | ||||||||||
| Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||||
| Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||
| Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||||||||||
| Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | ||||||||||
| Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 | ||||||||||
-PJ
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