Posted on 08/03/2010 6:57:29 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
THE devastation wrought by the great recession is still all too real for millions of Americans who lost their jobs, businesses and homes. The scars of the crisis are fresh, and every new economic report brings another wave of anxiety. That uncertainty is understandable, but a review of recent data on the American economy shows that we are on a path back to growth.
The recession that began in late 2007 was extraordinarily severe, but the actions we took at its height to stimulate the economy helped arrest the freefall, preventing an even deeper collapse and putting the economy on the road to recovery.
From the start, President Obama made clear that recovery from a crisis of this magnitude would not come quickly and that the recovery would not follow a straight line. We saw that this past spring, when the European fiscal crisis posed a serious challenge to the markets and to business confidence, dampening investment and the rate of growth here.
While the economy has a long way to go before reaching its full potential, last week’s data on economic growth show that large parts of the private sector continue to strengthen. Business investment and consumption — the two keys to private demand — are getting stronger, better than last year and better than last quarter. Uncertainty is still inhibiting investment, but business capital spending increased at a solid annual rate of about 17 percent.
Together, private consumption and fixed investment contributed about 3.25 percent to growth. Even the surge in imports, which lowered the rate of increase of G.D.P., actually reflects healthy and growing American demand.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
The treasury secretary cites the following factors which make the case for optimism:
The process of repair means economic growth will come slower than we would like. But despite these challenges, there is good news to report:
• Exports are booming because American companies are very competitive and lead the world in many high-tech industries.
• Private job growth has returned — not as fast as we would like, but at an earlier stage of this recovery than in the last two recoveries. Manufacturing has generated 136,000 new jobs in the past six months.
• Businesses have repaired their balance sheets and are now in a strong financial position to reinvest and grow.
• American families are saving more, paying down their debt and borrowing more responsibly. This has been a necessary adjustment because the borrow-and-spend path we were on wasn’t sustainable.
• The auto industry is coming back, and the Big Three — Chrysler, Ford and General Motors — are now leaner, generating profits despite lower annual sales.
• Major banks, forced by the stress tests to raise capital and open their books, are stronger and more competitive. Now, as businesses expand again, our banks are better positioned to finance growth.
• The government’s investment in banks has already earned more than $20 billion in profits for taxpayers, and the TARP program will be out of business earlier than expected — and costing nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars less than projected last year.
American corporations' balance sheets are actually indebted to the tune of $7.2 trillion, an all-time record. And they're not borrowing for growth.
Herr Geithner casually left out the fact that 0bama has quadrupled the annual deficit, which means the US government is removing money from the private sector to fuel the gargantuan beast. That doesn’t stimulate the economy; it inhibits it.
This is so much like Carter it’s scary. Economy is bad, and a general feeling that it’s going to get much worse before it gets better.
And just like under Carter, the people are scolded, telling them that they need to be positive. “Nothing is wrong, it’s just your attituded is bad.”
Unbelievable.
Wow...he's got some stones even mumbling that stat.
LOL!!!
So where's my check? Just kidding.
Is Congress going to lower taxes so we actually can recover? Will we use that $20 billion to pay down the national debt?
Naw, didn't think so.
Quit spreading the lie Junk Media. It was not “the worse recession since the great depression”.
Past time you propaganda agents in the Junk Media started doing their jobs instead of mindlessly regurgitating the DNC latest talking point
Worthless happy talk. There are other economic indicators that paint a much bleaker picture. And wait until the Bush tax cuts expire in January and more of Obamacare kicks in. I expect a major jump in health care premiums for next year in reaction to removing the lifetimne caps on insurance, adding children under 26 to their parents’ policies, mandating that people with existing conditions be covered, etc. And there will be total disarray as employers get out of the health care insurance business.
Businesses have repaired their balance sheets and are now in a strong financial position to reinvest and grow.
BS.....everyone business is ‘battening down the hatches’ for the economic tsunami coming in 2011 when the bush tax cuts are eliminated.
That’s nice.
If it weren’t so stiff and non-absorbent I’d recycle his column in a way that would reflect my true feelings about it/him.
You know its time to worry when the Sec. of Treasury feels compelled to write an editiorial in the NYT telling you not to worry.
Daddy turbotax Warbucks tells us that Hillary was wrong- Hope IS a strategy! (The sun will come out, tomnorrow
Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there’ll be suuuunnn!)
At least we thought Carter was a mere incompetent naive bumbling fool, not a marxist America-hater looking for revenge in the guise of “hopie change”
There is nothing here other than political posturing.
Seen this? So it begins with the demise of private health insurance
http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.aspx?id=212869&type=newswires
Edward Jones analyst downgrades health insurers
August 02, 2010
INDIANAPOLIS — The health care reform law, which is designed to cover millions of uninsured people, will squeeze the profitability of the largest commercial health insurers over the long term, making them unattractive investments, according to Edward Jones analyst Aaron Vaughn.
THE OPINION: Vaughn said in a research note his firm was downgrading UnitedHealth Group Inc., WellPoint Inc. and Aetna Inc. to “sell” from “hold” and plans to drop coverage on all three stocks at the end of the month.
Those insurers are the only managed care companies Edward Jones covers.
“In June, about 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the
labor force, an increase of 415,000 from a year earlier. (The data
are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor
force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job
sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed
because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey. (See table A-16.)
“Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged
workers in June, up by 414,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not
seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently
looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.
The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor
force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey
for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
(See table A-16.)”
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
I’d say Timmy needs to knock on 1.2 million doors to make his case.
Just like H. Hoover.
We have nothing to fear but fear itself! And my policies killing the economy for the next ten years... but mostly just fear itself.
And today @$$ hat Randi rhodes will spend the day parroting this lie to dummies all over the country
“Just like H. Hoover.”
I’ll take your word for it, I wasn’t around back then! :P
Baghdad Bob.........you have been equaled and even bettered.
At least the Depression had the Flory Dory Girls
That was the objective all along, i.e., the public option. First, you have to kill the private insurance companies leaving only the public option. Obama has said it publicly before the SEIU several years ago.
Please, allow her to spread Commrade Geithner’s propaganda. The Regime is responsible for ‘animal spirits’ credited for economic activity.
It’s part of the plan, doncha know. The Dems tout a ‘recovery’ and then when the sugar high of the stimulus checks wears off, the Republicans will the ones left to catch the falling safe. And then they can blame the R’s for the economic fall that was inevitable all along. These ‘progressives’ haven’t fixed a damned thing.
Hey Timmy, make sure that you enter that payment from the NYT for your column in Turbo Tax.
bump. that was my first thought when I began reading. The second is of Bagdad Bob.
I could swear that when President Bush made the same points regarding the war on terror, it took the left about 2 weeks to start screaming "QUAGMIRE!!
Webster’s Dictionary needs to seriously consider redefining “recovery” because it is apparent that ‘how’ and ‘what’ tax cheat Geithner, IdiotPOTUS, gaff-ridden Biden, and this idiot-ridden adminstration define “recovery” is totally different from how the average American defines it.
For starters, only 6% believe the Stimulus worked.....more people believe Elvis is still alive than believe the Stimulus worked. Memo to Webster’s..... =.=
That Marxist stuff never does follow a straight line; the ends justifying the means and all.
Someone just wrote a rebuttal to Tim Geithner’s op-ed :
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/welcome-to-my-job-security/
Today’s must read MSM piece is a NYT OpEd by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Welcome to the Recovery. I have been critical of Geithner’s reign at Treasury, and even more so of his former role as President of the NY Fed.
But today’s commentary is fascinating: What he writes is, for the most part, true. However, it does not quite paint a fully accurate picture. It tells only half of the story of the recovery, while ignoring the long term costs:
• Exports are booming because American companies are very competitive and lead the world in many high-tech industries.
• Private job growth has returned — not as fast as we would like, but at an earlier stage of this recovery than in the last two recoveries. Manufacturing has generated 136,000 new jobs in the past six months.
• Businesses have repaired their balance sheets and are now in a strong financial position to reinvest and grow.
• American families are saving more, paying down their debt and borrowing more responsibly. This has been a necessary adjustment because the borrow-and-spend path we were on wasn’t sustainable.
• The auto industry is coming back, and the Big Three — Chrysler, Ford and General Motors — are now leaner, generating profits despite lower annual sales.
• Major banks, forced by the stress tests to raise capital and open their books, are stronger and more competitive. Now, as businesses expand again, our banks are better positioned to finance growth.
• The government’s investment in banks has already earned more than $20 billion in profits for taxpayers, and the TARP program will be out of business earlier than expected — and costing nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars less than projected last year.
If you have ever wondered why some people progress within organizations, this is a perfect example. Say what you will about the Treasury Secretary’s understanding of the crisis or his policies at the NY Fed or at Treasury, he knows how to make his boss happy. I doubt there is anyone at the White House unhappy with him today.
I will go into greater detail in the future, but I just had to point out this little tidbit:
According to a report released last week by Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, advisers to President Bill Clinton and Senator John McCain, respectively, the combined actions since the fall of 2007 of the Federal Reserve, the White House and Congress helped save 8.5 million jobs and increased gross domestic product by 6.5 percent relative to what would have happened had we done nothing. The study showed that government action delivered a powerful bang for the buck, and that the bank rescue on its own will turn a profit for taxpayers.
That is now our standard — what was done versus doing nothing? That is truly the wrong counter-factual (more on this tomorrow).
The bottom line: Timmy’s job is safe for the foreseeable future.
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