[RockinRight]

The Dem majority IS in trouble regardless of this race.

[DLfromthedesert]

My son just moved into that district last year; bought a house in the Asheville area.
I know he’s a reliable R vote

[saganite]

If you would like to help kick Shuler out of the House you can contribute at Miller’s election website.

http://jeffmiller2010.com/donate/

[dalebert]

that race is too close to call

[MillardFillmore]

This is moderately good news.

Per this analysis:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/introducing-partisan-propensity-index.html

% in last column is percentage chance of a democrat being elected if the seat was open. Ranked from 0% to 100% since Nate Silver is a liberal but also a great statistician.

Heath Shuler appears at the 50.5% level way down the chart

There are 52 more republican-leaning districs which previously elected Democrats than 2008 than NC-11. (52 blue D’s above Shuler in the chart). This chart doesn’t consider incumbency but it’s encouraging that a tougher district to flip from D to R when the incmbent remains in place is looking so close to a R takeover.

In order to gain 39, GOP needs districts like NC-11 but doesn’t require them. Nice to hae yet another district in play

[cvq3842]

Any Democrat that votes for Pelosi or a Democrat as leader of the House (which is to say, every one of them) is an enemy of conservative principles. The vote for leadership is probably the most important vote cast, in every term.

[Congressman Billybob]

I ran twice for this seat, in ‘06 and ‘08. The Dems have more registered voters than the Repubs. But half of the Dems are conservative, Zell Miller Dems. Plus, the independents who hold the balance of power, are also more conservative than liberal.

If the Repubs do a competent job of hanging Pelosi around Schuler’s neck like an albatros, and spend the right amount of money, then Schuler is toast. The article is right that Schuler is a bellwether for Demo trouble in 2010,

John . Billybob

[Paleo Conservative]

Blue Dog? A vote for Shuler is a vote for Pelosi!

[equalitybeforethelaw]

Did Shuler twist his ankle? That generally is the signal for complete career collapse. What a putz, both as politician and QB. Maybe New Orleans will trade for him?