There is more information in the article indicating cause for alarm
Posted on 08/13/2010 10:16:20 AM PDT by Zakeet
Could Wall Street be about to crash again?
This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder.
I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. And I'm certainly not doing so now.
But way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out.
1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. ...
2. The Fed is getting nervous. ...
3. Too many people are too bullish. ...
4. Deflation is already here. ...
5. People still owe way too much money. Households, corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It's the debt, stupid. ...
6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the "official" unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind of job right now. ...
7. Housing remains a disaster. ...
8. Labor Day is approaching. Ouch. It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there actually is a "September effect." ...
9. We're looking at gridlock in Washington. ...
10. All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while still positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing warning lights for weeks (though the most recent signals have looked somewhat better). Europe's industrial production in June turned out considerably worse than expected. ...
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
There is more information in the article indicating cause for alarm
What they don't seem to be able to understand is people just don't have money to throw away any longer!
Granted most of the points are valid. However, gridlock will be good, not bad for stocks. Also, it is hard to say too many people are too bullish when all you get are a steady stream of negative reports and warnings of a coming crash. Doesn’t this article itself belie that point in and of itself?
In a word?
YES.
As part of a word:
Abso-frakin-lutely
As every word in the sentence:
Well, you get the idea....
IMHO
This one can be good. It will, at least, stop the slide. In two years, hopefully we can change the direction in the freedom and liberty of this country.
What say you Blam?
1. Obama
2. Biden
3. Pelosi
4. Reid
5. Frank
6. Dodd
7. Geithner
8. Bernanke
9. Every other Dem elected official
10. Everyone who voted for a Dem last time around.
“Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined) is the dreaded Hindenburg Omen...
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash...
“Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation. Yet the statistics are startling: “Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days.”
“The last Hindenburg Omen occurred during the lows of 2009. Today, we just had another (unconfirmed) Hindenburg Omen. It is time to batten down the hatches - something big is coming.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hindenburg-omen-here
I am not a financial whiz by any stretch so let me ask this question - what’s the best thing to do with a 401k that’s based on index funds to avoid a 2008 style regression?
That's the only bright spot, actually.
That's actually a positive. The LACK of gridlock is what has turned a recession into a depression.
Asking a stock broker if now is a good time to buy is like asking a barber if you need a haircut. The answer will always be yes regardless of reality.
However, gridlock will be good, not bad for stocks.
This one can be good. It will, at least, stop the slide. In two years, hopefully we can change the direction in the freedom and liberty of this country.
That's the only bright spot, actually.
That's actually a positive. The LACK of gridlock is what has turned a recession into a depression.
The problem is that, while gridlock will prevent the Rats from enacting any more of their bright idea social programs, it will also prevent the opposition from cleaning up the mess. The emphasis will be on compromise rather than meaningful reform. In other words, we will be stuck in a situation where, at best, we bottom bounce and, at worst, we continue our downward trend.
Frankly, I consider gridlock inevitable until we either (1) get rid of the Wee Wee, and/or (2) get a veto proof majority of true conservatives in both the House and Senate. Unfortunately, neither of these can happen in this year's election.
I agree. There is no ‘gridlock’ in Washington and that is exactly the problem. The Dems have the Presidency, the House, and can break filibusters in the Senate most of the time. This is the farthest from gridlock that we’ve had in my (40 year) life. And that is the problem! Look at what they are doing with their power, that is the problem!!
Interesting. Hadn’t heard of this predictor.
However, the DJIA is up ten as I type. See here.
The answer I expected! ;-)
And agree with.
but I need to let you know you’ve been ‘slacking’ everyone else has had to post for you! ;-)
“However, the DJIA is up ten as I type.”
Hey the FED has to spend all that money they are printing somewhere! ;-)
Excellent article — not ‘scare mongering’, but factual.
“Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind of job right now. “
Things are going to get worse, before they get better.
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