Posted on 09/02/2010 11:19:07 PM PDT by Chet 99
It’s probably 5-6 points too optimistic.
Compared to the rest of the state San Francisco is relatively small. Moreover, they already vote 70-80% rat most of the time any way, so even if they were to flip every Republican vote in their county, it wouldn't make too big of a difference.
I'd be more worried about the lefty registrars and bureaucrats in the conservative leaning or marginal counties like San Bernardino, Fresno and Sacramento. LA despite its massive size and liberal slant, actually has a very well run registrar. I've spent many horrible November weeks there napping in hallways, though not recently.
Even with your numbers both races are a statistical dead heat. Not bad considering is Kalifornia.
San Francisco always reports late. I think they wait to see how many ‘votes’ they need.
Just look at what happened to Bill Simon.
I don’t want to jinx it, but,
I’d love to sing
na na na na
hey hey hey
good bye
MA’AM.
I don’t want to jinx it, but,
I’d love to sing
na na na na
hey hey hey
good bye
MA’AM.
“When Boxer is in trouble we are in good shape.”
You betcha!
SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 California adults 08/31/10 through 09/01/10. Of them, 844 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 569 were determined by Survey USA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election, 2 months from today. Early voting begins in just over 1 month, on 10/04/10. It was a mixture of adult likely voters and registered
If you look at the link
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=198d3195-2ccf-4932-8715-1ed2c6f410ae
it says “569 Likely Voters” in the upper left corner, in a blue rectangle, in each of the 4 questions, right above “Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%
It was a mixture of adult likely voters and registered
Your answer doesn’t also take into account other political races, in ‘12 and beyond, where the Democrats are the incumbents, and some of their GOP opponents are RINOS, with the remainder being truly conservative Republicans. Also, there are many “pro-leftist areas” of the U.S. where the only GOP officeholders/candidates running are RINOS, if there are, even, any GOP officeholders/candidates running at all in such areas of the U.S. Should conservatives just always avoid all areas of the U.S. where they can’t win? What if all of these “pro-leftist areas” of the U.S. never change over, ever? Most U.S. cities are “pro-leftist areas”, so how does conservatism, actually, win over such areas, long-term?
? You get rid of liberals by having conservatives run against them. I don’t care if the liberal is Republican or Democrat. Run a conservative against them.
GOP fortunes are ascending at just the right time. Here’s hoping on top of the expected victories, we catch some breaks in states like California.
And I’m, also, hoping that conservative victories continue to happen over and over again, during all future election cycles.
Here’s to 2012 and beyond!
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