Posted on 09/09/2010 5:04:18 AM PDT by marktwain
The media mavens at ABC need to spend a little time here at TTAG, or simply trolling the net for what are called facts. Seems The Mayors Against Illegal Guns waved a new study on the weapons used in Mexico’s OOC drug war under their journalistic snout and they forgot to ask themselves if the report was, well, bullshit. “A shocking new report obtained by ABC News says that as many as three out of four guns used in crimes in Mexico can be traced to gun stores just across the border in the U.S. The numbers bolster complaints by Mexican officials that the country’s unprecedented bloodshed – 28,000 people have died in drug-cartel violence since 2006 – is being fueled both by the U.S. appetite for drugs, and by American weapons.” Yes, it’s our fault. And here’s proof! . . .
“We can say that there is enormous violence in Mexico and most of the killing is done with guns and most of the guns used in the killing are originally from gun dealers in the United States,” said Arkado Gerney, one of the report’s authors.
The study, based on Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) data and prepared by the advocacy group Mayors Against Illegal Guns, shows that three out of four guns used in crimes in Mexico and submitted for tracing were sold in the four U.S. states that border Mexico.
I bolded that text, obviously. But I’m far from the only person who noticed that this stat, which has been bouncing around all summer, is based on guns surrendered to the U.S. for tracing by Mexico. The survey sample does NOT include all the weapons that weren’t submitted to the ATF by our neighbors to the south.
Nor does it include all the weapons that the drug lords and their thugs are using that have not been confiscated. Or were confiscated and sold back to the drug lords and their minions. In fact, how many guns are we talking about?
According to the report, from 2006 through 2009, 19,000 guns used in crimes in Mexico were traced to an original sale at a US gun dealer, and the bulk of the guns came from Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California. Texas supplied four in ten of those weapons, and the other three border states provided an additional one third.
Is that for real? Are they saying that Mexico sent the ATF 19,000 guns in the last three years for tracing? I find that number highly suspect—unless some of these guns were confiscated by the crate load.
I know! Let’s click on the link to the report inside the ABC News story and see what they’re on about. For some strange reason, ABC News doesn’t link to the Mayors Against Illegal Guns or the report.
Click here to download the study in question from TTAG. Uh-oh. It’s worse than I thought!
The issue brief, which examines previously unavailable ATF data about guns recovered in Mexico and traced back to the U.S, finds that roughly 75% of the U.S. crime guns recovered in Mexico [bolding mine] originate from the four border states – with roughly 40% originating from Texas alone.
When controlling for population, three of the four border states – Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico – supply guns recovered in Mexico at a rate three times greater than the rate of the fourth border state, California. In addition, the time between the original sale of guns at U.S. gun dealers and the recovery of those guns at Mexican crime scenes is decreasing – a sign of ever more sophisticated gun trafficking.
Again, let’s be clear. This is a study of a sample of recovered guns FROM THE U.S. Not the total population of recovered guns. Here’s commentator Van Dyke’s gotcha:
I’m shocked that ABC completely missed ten minutes of fact-checking that shows this MAIG report is bull.
From a footnote of the very report discussed in the news piece:
>In addition, it is important to note that although trace data is the best available information for evaluating gun trafficking patterns, there are limitations to this data. Specifically, traced firearms do not represent all crime guns, as not all guns used in crimes are recovered, and not every recovered crime gun is traced. In addition, not all efforts to trace guns are successful. ATF cannot trace guns that were neither manufactured in nor imported through the U.S., but that affects only a small share of guns submitted from Mexico.21
That “21″ indicates a footnoted citation for the footnote. An lengthy report by the GAO. You actually read it and you get this gem calling for clarification from the DHS:
DHS officials believe that the 87 percent statistic is misleading as the reference should include the number of weapons that could not be traced (i.e. out of approximately 30,000 weapons seized in Mexico, approximately 4,000 could be traced and 87 percent of those — 3,480 — originated in the United States.) Numerous problems with the data collection and sample population render this assertion as unreliable.
So you have 3,480 out of 30,000. Looks like a famous 10%.
Here’s another question: if the ATF knows so much about all these American guns wending their way from Mexican border states to the drug lords, why don’t they find the gun runners and arrest them?
Truth be told, Mexican drug lords can afford to pay 10 times over the odds for their weapons. Maybe even a hundred times. Anyone want to guess how many guns are coming in to Mexico from Eastern Europe? Mayors? ATF? Anyone?
So what? I mean, you could shut down the banging in Mexico by shutting down the "War on Drugs(TM)" or you could start a second American revolutionary war by trying to use Mexico as an excuse for getting rid of the 2'nd amendment; ending the WOD would be simpler and cheaper...
The ATF is an arm of the Government.
The Obama Government.
It pretty much says what they think Obama would want it to say.
Eastern Europe or places like Iran or Syria. Hezbollah is training the Zetas and these pitiful morons are looking at US gun dealers?
Any coincidence the senate is beginning hearings on the 14th to determine if new gun laws are needed? In law enforcement circles, there is no such thing as coincidence and there is none here. Harry Weed is fighting to keep his job and to do so he needs the NRA support...wanna bet these two are related? He can shut that hearing down quickly or keep it going.
Or, not to be sarcastic, if they treated private possession of firearms the same way Texas & Az did they would have levels of violence on par with Texas & Az.
I heard this story on WABC radio on the news during the Rush show.
PROPAGANDA from the Fifth Column
ABC gets it wrong again??? I can’t believe it. </sarc>
I would also venture to say that your average illegal immigrant is not walking into a gun store in Texas buying up an arm load of Glocks and walking back into Mexico. Most likely, they are stelailng guns durnig home invasions and burgularies the same as the american made gangs do, then smuggling them into Mexico. So the question remains, WHO is responsible for keeping the american public safe from criminals??? Shutting down the border would curtail the traffic of these STOLEN guns.
NOT reported are the number of Mexican Govt owned weapons trafficed to the Narcos? Shocked, I tell ya...
BTW, Los Zetas are operating openly in Arizona even as you read this.
The whole “American guns are being used in Mexico” story fails the smell test. Why would a Mexican drug cartel buy civilian arms from the US when so many military arms are available to them from Central and South America? Back in the ‘70s and ‘80s, the US and the USSR flooded the region with weapons. Those guns didn’t evaporate after the Cold War ended; they’re still out there. The Contras and the FMLN may not be around anymore, but their guns are. Were I a Zeta looking for a gun, I’d be prowling the black market south of the border, not a Wal-Mart north of the border.
The whole article is STATISTICAL FRAUD
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