ObamaCare ‘Shocker’: Budget Math Doesn’t Work If People Actually Use It

IBD ^ | 9/15/10 | David Hogberg

[Nachum]

This new report from the liberal group Families USA contains this eye-popping paragraph:

Families USA commissioned The Lewin Group to use its economic models to estimate how many individuals would benefit from the new premium tax credits in 2014 and the value of the dollars going to help pay for insurance. We found that an estimated 28.6 million Americans will be eligible for the tax credits in 2014, and that the total value of the tax credits that year will be $110.1 billion.

Houston, we have a problem!

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the tax credits to purchase coverage on the insurance exchanges would cost about $20 billion in 2014. That’s a $90 billion discrepancy.

Kathleen Stoll, director of health policy at Families USA, explained the difference: “The CBO estimate is of people who will take up the tax credit; ours is an estimate of the people who are actually eligible for the tax credit.”

The CBO assumes that about 8 million will actually apply for and receive the tax credit in 2014, while Families USA estimates that are 28.6 million who could do so.

[Nachum]

The list, ping

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[fhayek]

My grandfather used to have a term for things like Obamacare. It’s a ham in a can.

[parisa]

The rest of the article gets even better:

The CBO assumes that about 8 million will actually apply for and receive the tax credit in 2014, while Families USA estimates that are 28.6 million who could do so.

Obviously, costs will go up if the number of people who enroll in the tax credit is greater than the CBO estimate. If the number is enough to boost the cost of the tax credit by an annual average of just $23 billion between 2014-2019, then CBO’s projection of ObamaCare deficit savings of $138 billion over 10 years would be entirely wiped out.

So what are the chances that more people will take up the tax credit in 2014 than what the CBO estimated?

“CBO is trying to guess how many people will know about the tax credit the first year and how many people will choose to take it up,” said Stoll. “A lot of assumptions go into ‘take up’ and a lot of those assumptions are really low and we hope to change that reality.”

Stoll said Families USA is currently working with other groups to establish a new nonprofit called “Enroll America” to improve the take up numbers.

“That will increase costs if we succeed in helping more people get coverage,” she said.

[ScoopAmma]

What crossed my mind today was whether the huge push for allowing for the expiration of the Bush credits for the “wealthy” isn’t part of the funds they are expecting to include for the funding of this sham.