Regional Fed Surveys Suggest Imminent ISM Manufacturing Drop

The Business Insider ^ | 9-16-2010 | Calculated Risk

[blam]

Regional Fed Surveys Suggest Imminent ISM Manufacturing Drop

Calculated Risk
Sep. 16, 2010, 4:44 PM

Note: Usually I don't watch this very closely, but right I'm looking for signs of a slowdown in manufacturing. Eventually a watched pot does boil ...

By request - now that the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys for September have been released - here is an update to the graph I posted last month:

For this graph I averaged the New York and Philly Fed surveys (dashed green, through September), and averaged five surveys including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City (blue, through August).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis).

Last month, when the ISM survey came in slightly better than expected, I wrote: "Based on this graph, I'd expect either the Fed surveys to bounce back in September - or the ISM to decline."

So far there has been little "bounce back" in the Fed surveys.

[snip]

[Regulator]

Not to worry.

I saw the former Obama economic advisor Peter Orszag on TV the other day saying that manufacturing is not really necessary for a Great Nation.

In his world, only Little People do that...not the graduates of Exeter and Princeton.

Or even South Dakota State, I guess.

We'll all do 'services' for the tiny few who work in giant Hedge Funds (that occasionally implode) and make billions.

You know, chauffers, maids, cooks...oh wait. Those are for the illegals.

Guess there's no job an American CAN do, much less WILL do according to Big Geniuses like him.

[griswold3]

There are fewer who understand the concept of value creation.