Posted on 10/04/2010 12:17:03 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 3, 2010. This is the smallest gap between parties in roughly a year.
Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year, and it has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
That would be incredible but very unrealistic especially the senate.
Nobody but Dick Morris said the Senate was in play until July, and nobody even now is saying the House will stay Dem aside from Democrats themselves.
Honestly, I did. Naive of me to think people were becoming more informed and realizing what Obama gives is not what we need.
Im trying to remember that there will be a huge psychological war going on in the media to deter our enthusiasm, we should be very cautious of everything coming out.
So do I. Sometimes I think we may be better off not giving the rats the advantage of scapegoating the Republicans for their failures. Let them totally collapse and take ALL the blame and get rid of the rest of the rats along with obama in 2012.
I trust Rasmussen pretty well. I think this is something of a statistical outlier. It’s bound to happen from time to time.
There have been some positive reports on Obamacare, but I don’t think that changed six percent of minds over a few days.
The more important number is the 18% gap among independents. People are abandoning the Democrat and Republican parties and labels. I think if Ras is missing anything, he might be slightly behind the shift from Repub/Rat to Independent in his sampling. That’s where the fault line is, and that’s where the Big One will hit.
If the Dems recover and hold the House, it will be a “mandate” for accelerating Socialism/Fascism and a disaster that is “historic” and “unprecedented”.
“It’s hard to imagine that 10% of those polled have changed their minds about Obamacare (around 60% down to 50%) in two weeks.”
Let’s not forget that Ras underestimated Scott Brown’s surge by at least 3 or 4 points. Do that in this case (also think about the MoE) and you have 48 - 39 or 49 - 38.
In any case, because the pollsters tend to oversample RATS, we’re still in good shape.
Just my take.
This should inspire us to GOTV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Do not take anything for granted.
Is one of the questions by the pollster "Are you planning on sitting this one out?"There are several questions, actually, that pollsters ask to determine how "likely" someone is to vote. For instance, one is always, "Did you vote in 2008?" if they were eligible to vote, and "Have you been following the race between _________ and __________ for the senate?" or whatever race they are polling about.
I have paypal, I’ll take that bet.
Your optimism is very much appreciated.
I am a little worried at these numbers. Rasmussen is a reputable pollster. The nationwide stuff is spot on. State by state, more deviation from final results, but generally, they pick the winner.
But, you can almost bet that a 3 point game is where it sits AT THIS MOMENT.
Let’s hope the GOP picks up 3 or 4 somehow before Nov. 2. Then the blowout you envision could happen....
“There is no reason to believe the electorate is any smarter now than they were 2 years ago. And more of them are on the dole now.”
Less of the dummies will be voting 11/2 though. And more of us. Plus the 18 point advantage among indies.
It’s only a matter of how LARGE a SMACKDOWN.
This should motivate us to GOTV!!!
The Statist are gaining ground in the population. Thievery, money and corruption host rewards for the population which demand them.
We must acknowledge that there are entire populations in the United States which are wholly corrupt and destructive to the rights of their countrymen.
I see no redemption for theses folks, should they become the majority in a land who’s constitutional law is practicably meaningless our only means of protection will necessarily be nullification and if that fails secession(defended by whatever means necessary).
What we are looking at is tyranny of the majority. An abusive and explosive population of people bent upon the subjugation of the rest of us in-order to provide for them. This is oppression and ultimately little more then slavery.
Right now everything is in flux because the media is scaring the voters of the new conservative candidates. They're in a fog of confusion. The more they see and hear and comprehend of the conservative candidates vs. the socialist-progressive incumbents with their fascist boots on their economic trachea, the big picture will come into focus. Wait till more bad economic numbers come in and watch them vote to save the country rather their own petty personal quibbles!
Have you bookmarked this thread so we can come back on November 3rd and gloat at each other... depending on who is right of course.
Rass’s poll has oscillated rather regularly for the last 8 months, although this is the biggest dip so far.
Even the RCP graph overall shows this.
If the trend follows it will be on it’s way back up from here and peak just about Election Day.
“but the fact is... negative ads work.”
There’s plenty of Conservative money being spent on ads too. Even in lefty WA St.
K... bookmark the thread
I also sent you a PM so you’ll have it on file.
“What has improved the Dems chances in the last month? What have they done?”
I’ve heard rumors that the U3 unemployment rate will rise to 9.7% - although they may be setting up an ‘unexpected surprise’ drop too - so who knows. But to answer your question specifically - NOTHING.
Exactly. That’s why we still have Election Day instead of taking today’s survey results.
Some days I really feel this is true... there is NO way to get back to where we were and the Liberals have convinced society that "good is wrong and Evil is right". But I WILL... I reiterate, I WILL fight to the very end. I will not want to be known as the "generation" that let the best thing in history fade away!!
“and fully expect that November won’t be all we wished for.”
Did you also predict demise in VA, NJ and the Brown contest? Or perhaps you’re smartly using reverse psychology on the portion of the 300,000 FReepers that may read your words, to inspire us to push through to the finish??! ;)
With all due respect, now’s not the time for clucking at the polls. Nows the time to GOTV in our localities and states.
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