Sure. As you get closer to the magic 218 seats and then exceed that number the probability of the GOP taking back the House rises rapidly and approaches 100%. It never makes it but it gets arbitrarily close.
This model does come close to a good number. Compare to intrade.com, which predicts Republicans gain between 55-60 seats, and yet only 85% chance of Republicans taking the House. Nice overlay here.
Also, read the fine print on DemonRat control of the Senate on Intrade. Intrade doesn’t count Lieberman and Sanders, and won’t count Crist or Murkowski, for either party. So, at about 10%, neither party controlling the Senate is low, and Demons at 50% is too high.
That is the trend line I have been waiting to see, you could see it back in what June? But the slow drift is become the beginning of a moderate sized tide.
TBH, I expected a much stronger trend to the GoP, there is still almost three weeks left but I expect 80ish seats to be in jeopardy for the Dems, but Dem Election Stealing is legendary so saying 80 is just not going to happen.