Posted on 10/15/2010 3:47:05 PM PDT by Delacon
Well I don’t know about any of us dared to hope.
Some here have been predicting a Christine win for months. In my case, since May.
I would prefer polling in the single digits however, but I think we’re still on track.
The tea party express didn’t get involved in the primary until about this time - 2.5 weeks before the primary.
I’m going to drink everytime I see a long sad look on a “journalist’s” face.
This is gonna be fun!
Is Coons really a Hobbit?
Are Hobbits allowed to run for office?
He prefers to be called ‘Ewokian’.
After listening to him yammer through the debate with O’Donnell I believe that is more accurate.
(The correct picture is at reply 97.)
On the lib MSM outlets the words will be “shocked” and “voter outrage” and “anti-incumbent” which is MSM speak for “anti-democrat”
“Just remember this: In the primaries TWICE AS MANY Republicans voted as did Democrats. If the general election turnout differential is anything close to this there is not a race anywhere in the country in which the Republican will not win. The polls simply don’t reflect this factor, but it is HUGE.
“Of course, some individual races will vary but overall I see no reason to believe that it won’t be an even better night than we’re anticipating. If we come anywhere close to a 2-1 turnout advantage even a candidate trailing by 20 points will win easily.”
Outstanding post, noiseman; thank you. I believe you are correct. All these polls assume voter behavior and turnout as in the past. But this year has shown DRAMATICALLY different Republican/Independent behavior and turnout.
Americans have had a “full-on” taste of an over-educated, intellectual “elite” shoving their un-American agenda down our throats, and hate it. Even people who formerly didn’t pay much attention to what American is about are now deeply concerned and afraid.
Be sure your VDRs are running on election night, folks, ‘cause you’re not going to believe the burst of patriotism that the RATS have rousted. Awakened Americans are about to strike back.
if memory serves me right, Ewoks pretty much just say, “dobble dobble dobble”
“Apparently Obama and Biden have some inside bad news. Why else did they go to Delaware today if Coons has it wrapped up?”
This is my thinking also. Not only is it a positive development in its own right, but those two clowns are radioactive these days - can only hurt coons further!
Re: post #99
I sure hope you’re right.
I think Coon’s organization has internal polling that shows O’Donnell surging and they are wetting themselves at the White House and in Wilmington where the bulk of her opposition resides.
Who knows what internals are showing as they aren’t normally released. But Rasmussen is showing basically no gain for O’Donnell over a two month period. Either Rasmussen has this one screwed up or Rasmussen is the best as you often see stated on FR. I still don’t rule out it being a safe place for Obama to campaign if in fact Coons is winning fairly easily. We’ll know before long.
“Sorry if you just want to read happy talk, but there is reality in politics and the reality is another 11 points will be tougher than the last 8-10.”
You’re right. There’s reality. Reality is that Castle is gone. Victory for Conservatives. Second reality is that O’Donnell who’s been pulling flack from all over the nation is within 11 with an MoE of 4.5 - she ‘could’ do this when the national press was hoping and praying (to their god) for a complete wipeout - you know 20, or 30 points or something.
I’d say CO’s doing OK - and that’s real too.
First, she has to go negative to get him below 50 percent. Then brawl your way into the last few weeks and maybe she can pull it out.
“Rasmussen is showing basically no gain for O’Donnell over a two month period.”
CO caught and beat Castle from -19 within 3 weeks. Now that people have seen she’s not the dunce that the media lied about, she may be helped by the anti-incumbency wave. GOTV will tell the story in DE as elsewhere. Ras was wrong in MA by the way - although showing a surge. I hope he does one or two more snapshots - cause his last one had Castle in the mix. If he does one or two more, we’ll surely confirm or deny any surge for CO.
“Is Coons really a Hobbit?
Are Hobbits allowed to run for office”?
Hobbit? More like Gollum. True Gollum was a hobbit centuries before he found his precious. Like Coons obsession with government power, Gollum’s obsession with power from the ring, it turned him into the tiny, bald, and skinny little freak we know.
Is coons a midget? Sure looks like it.
Yeah, it’s not obviously funny, but it still is funny.
And Christine never poisoned anybody.
And exposure to PFOA
It might be possible to compare apples to apples with a different poll to see or not see any surge.
People rarely talk about likely voter models and the inability to get tea party races at all right in the primary.
The tea party candidate in Maine - LePage - went from 10% in the last poll less than a week before to 37% on election day.
There isn’t “plenty” of time, but there is enough time. And Christine actually has the money advantage this time. She was outspent 10-1 apparently in the primary. She has twice as much money in the bank right now as Coons, and to now, she has spent only a little bit more than Coons.
All of these things point to Christine closing the gap in the polls and then winning.
“Does anybody know if there is going to be another debate?”
http://www.redstate.com/aarongardner/2010/10/15/delawares-problem-isnt-christine-odonnell/
“At this point, two weeks out from election day and 2 debates left, a new Rasmussen poll shows Coons at 51% and O’Donnell at 40%.”
“All of these things point to Christine closing the gap in the polls and then winning.”
Based on those dynamics you describe, none of us are only going by the polls. Sure we’d love for all our Tea Party favorites to have insurmountable leads. We’ve already seen too many upsets to give up; and there will be many more on 11/2.
I’m now busy working on GOTV for Rossi/Watkins (WA 1 to oust RAT Inslee who’s saber rattling about running for governor in 2012). Fighting to the very end.
Cheers!
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