Posted on 10/16/2010 1:35:44 PM PDT by freespirited
Yesterday we looked at the size and performance of our ground-game, the “boots-on-the-ground” volunteer voter contact effort that can move so many votes in close elections. That effort is more robust than any previous mid-term cycle, and bigger even than many presidential cycles’ volunteer efforts. The question now is whether all that volunteer voter contact is having a positive impact.
One early indicator is partisan performance in absentee and early voting states. There is early or in-person absentee voting going on in a dozen states right now, with five more opening next week. More than 30 states have mailed out absentee ballots already. So how are Republicans faring in these earliest contests? Quite well. Let’s look at a few examples.
According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Republicans lead Democrats in the three largest counties which comprise nearly a third of the Ohio vote. These of course are traditionally areas where Democrats need to perform well to have a chance statewide. Obama won 68%, 60%, and 52% in these counties (Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton) in 2008. And it isn’t just that Republicans have closed the gap, it’s that Republican requests actually lead Democrats in two of the three counties in raw numbers. And in the third, while Democrats have a 4-to-1 registration advantage, 33% of Republicans have requested a ballot compared to just 18% of Democrats. To see the entire article, click here: http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2010/09/republicans_have_requested_mor.html
In Colorado, our Victory program has focused since February on increasing the number of voters on the state’s permanent absentee list. Since then, we have added more than 38,000 Republicans to the permanent list. Democrats on the permanent list actually declined. As of today, Republicans receiving absentee ballots in Colorado outnumber Democrats by about 43,000.
In Florida, volunteers in our Victory centers have been urging presidential-year-only Republican voters to request an absentee ballot. The results are clear: of the more than 1.4 million requests to date, Republicans account for 47.5% while Democrats account for just 36.5% of those requests.
And in North Carolina, so far this year Republicans account for almost 46% of absentee ballots returned versus just 36% for Democrats. During President Bush’s first mid-term, Democrats accounted for 72% of the ballots returned at this point in the cycle versus 25% for Republicans.
Nationally, we project that almost 40% of the vote will turn out before Election Day this year. But in 11 states, the share of pre-Election Day voting will exceed 50% or more. In fact, among the states with early voting, we project that about 55% of ballots will be cast before Election Day. So the early focus on, and success in early and absentee voting, is a great sign for Republicans around the country.
Message in the tea-leaves? Watch for big Republican turnout across the country this fall.
Early voting just gives them more time to cheat and steal. I’m waiting until THE day.
Everyone I talk to can’t wait to vote and they proudly say they will not be voting for any Democrats!
I’m not a fan of early voting either. At the least it should be limited to no more than a week.
I was concerned because Fox mentioned early voting and a substantially higher number of Dem early votes had been cast in Montgomery county, OH, than Republican.
I guess a lot of us are waiting until 2 Nov to really express ourselves. At least I hope so.
My ballot is on the way!!
“Early voting just gives them more time to cheat and steal.”
Call me paranoid, but I think the ‘Rats are not above opening a few of those early ballots for a sneak peek. If the results are trending away from their man, they print up a couple thousand names from local headstones......and of course, head shops;)
I like seeing my ballot slide into that box.
Politics came up as a discussion point in my gym this morning. Almost unanimous was that we couldn't wait until Election Day and we were voting to shut down the Obama administration. No one was shy about commenting - there is real energy here (and I'm in California).
Other a older lib and a few minrities in the gym, everyone I know horrified by this govt.
How many of them voted for it?
I'm with you.
I like to watch.
The stories I read about entire states not sending out absentee ballots to the military are very distressing. Anyone caught in this type of activity deserves nothing less than summary execution. That is...if any investigation into such activity is even started.
I hate early voting. But, I am voting tomorrow in Nevada. My job is going to force me to be out of the state on election day, so though I believe my vote will more than likely end up at the bottom of Lake Tahoe, I must try nevertheless.
Me too. I vote early in Florida and I slide my ballot into the optical scanning machine and watch it drop into the box. We can start early voting Monday, the 18th of Oct. I believe.
Yes, we even have friends that have said, "I consider myself a Democrat, but we have to vote for Republicans this time around."
Early voting generally is conducted on the same voting equipment used in the regular election, as opposed to absentee voting, which is conducted on mail-in paper ballots. The time period for early voting varies from state to state, but most often it is available during a period of 10-14 days before the election, generally ending on the Friday or Saturday immediately preceding the election.
|
Early Voting The following states permit no-excuse, in-person early voting at election offices, and in some cases, at satellite locations. |
|
|
Alaska |
Montana |
|
Arizona |
Nebraska |
|
Arkansas |
Nevada |
|
California |
New Mexico |
|
Colorado |
North Carolina |
|
District of Columbia |
North Dakota |
|
Florida |
Ohio |
|
Georgia |
Oklahoma |
|
Hawaii |
South Dakota |
|
Idaho |
Tennessee |
|
Illinois |
Texas |
|
Indiana |
Utah |
|
Iowa |
Vermont |
|
Kansas |
West Virginia |
|
Louisiana |
Wisconsin |
|
Maine |
Wyoming |
|
Maryland |
|
Absentee voting is conducted by mail-in paper ballot prior to the day of the election. While all states offer some version of it, there is quite a lot of variation in states’ procedures for absentee voting. For instance, some states offer "no-excuse" absentee voting, allowing any registered voter to vote absentee without requiring that the voter state a reason for his/her desire to vote absentee. Other states permit voters to vote absentee only under a limited set of circumstances.
The following 29 states offer "no-excuse" absentee voting:
|
Alaska |
Illinois |
North Dakota |
|
Arizona |
Iowa |
Ohio |
|
Arkansas |
Kansas |
Oklahoma |
|
California |
Maine |
Oregon* |
|
Colorado |
Montana |
South Dakota |
|
District of Columbia |
Nebraska |
Utah |
|
Florida |
Nevada |
Vermont |
|
Georgia |
New Jersey |
Washington |
|
Hawaii |
New Mexico |
Wisconsin |
|
Idaho |
North Carolina |
Wyoming |
*Oregon conducts all elections solely by mail ballot.
Freepers said that constantly in 2008, and guess who won.
I only take that seriously if people in non-conservative states say that even Democrats are voting anti-Dem.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.