Dems are in full campaign mode now, pouring money into these races at near or exceeding parity with the Republicans.
Also, lots of people want them some freebies.
Many of these races will go back and forth, but I'd expect them to break one way or the other in the last week. If there is going to be a major GOP wave, we should start seeing it in the last week of polling.
For one thing, I heard that Buck had a light campaign schedule for several weeks. Maybe he thought he could coast to victory. Now he should know better.