Posted on 10/18/2010 3:43:12 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
As I write this, the $64 question is how to appraise the Senate race in Delaware. If the public polls are to be believed, then the race is pretty much over, although Christine O'Donnell in the two most recent polls has narrowed the gap to 11 points (Rasmussen) and to 8 points (The Conservative Journal) as of October 14, with 17 days to go. Apparently the NRSC believes the polls and is not expending any money or providing any significant help to O'Donnell. But ARE the polls to be believed? How accurate have they proven so far this cycle? Or should we believe something else other than the public polls? Like our eyes.
FACEBOOK:
For example, her Facebook fan numbers. When I first began tracking her Facebook numbers back in early August, O'Donnell had about 3500 fans. (I had been following Joe Miller's race with Lisa Murkowski on Facebook and was struck by how he steadily gained, and eventually overtook, her, ending up with about twice her total.) I believe I first noted that O'Donnell started ahead of Castle in early August with about a 3500 to 2200 lead (which was a little surprising given his long tenure but which I discounted due to generational factors, her previous campaigns and the fact that, even then, her likability-it was evident to me- would attract more fans).
When I glanced at her numbers a month later on September 2, I noticed O’Donnell’s trajectory on Facebook had been even steeper than Miller's. During the month of August, her FB fans increased by about 2000 to 5632, while Castle was stuck in neutral. From September 2 until the primary (September 14)—just 12 days—she added 2500 (boosted as Miller had been) by the Sarah Palin endorsement. Castle again was flat, adding only about 100 FB fans the entire time.
The period since the primary is the most indicative of Christine O'Donnell's strength. In the space of a month, she has TRIPLED what was already a hefty total (25,633 versus 9495 for Coons). Joe Miller (by contrast) has been more or less flat since his primary and now has a little over 7000 FB fans, which also indicates he is in more of a race than he should be, given the dynamics in that race. O'Donnell's surge on Facebook (and her continued outpacing of Coons by nearly a 3-1 pace) is bad news indeed for Coons.
In a primary or off year election, INTEREST and its first cousin, INTENSITY, are the best indicators of electoral success. The polls are notoriously unreliable because the pollsters do not know WHO will show up to vote. Facebook helps to show who the actual voters are likely to be.
FUNDRAISING:
As has been reported Christine O'Donnell is has raised twice as much money ($3.8 million) as Coons in the last month. Again, as with Facebook, her massive 2-1 fundraising advantage is indicative of interest and intensity, which translates into voters on election day.
PUBLIC POLLS AND THE NRSC:
As I said, the public polls indicate that Coons is far ahead. Of course, the pollsters will admit that the accuracy of the polls is dependent on the accuracy of the turnout model. If the electorate is 37.4% Self identified conservative and 19% self identified liberal, as the 2009 Gallup numbers show for Delaware, 75% of the conservatives show up and vote for 'Donnell, while only 30% of the liberals show up (voting overwhelmingly for Coons), she needs only a decent showing with the moderates (who make up 40%)assuming they don't vote in greater proportions than the conservatives.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
I mention the NRSC only to comment on their virtually unbroken string of failures this cycle. They have been beaten in Kentucky, Alaska, Nevada and Delaware (not to mention Utah). Their only success was in Hew Hampshire, where Sarah Palin actually had a far greater effect. Had it not been for Palin's endorsement, the non-NRSC candidate-Ovide Lamontagne-would likely have beaten the NRSC backed Kelly Ayotte. To the extent they have re-introduced themselves into General Election races, they have likely done more harm than good. They have obviously done nothing constructive for Joe Miller in Alaska and they haven't closed the sale for Sharron Angle in Nevada. If Miller and Angle are following NRSC advice, my advice to them, for what it's worth, is : STOP....NOW. These people are good at one thing...blowing elections which should be sure thing. And they are treacherous.
In fact, once the history of the Delaware Senate race is written, and Christine O'Donnell's victory is in the record book, I believe she should deliver to John Cornyn and the NRSC an engraved thank you note for staying out of Delaware.
I hope you are right!
Ping!
O'Donnell most certainly can win!
Shame on the GOP -— especially the NRSC
which collected millions and would not HELP
O’Donnell.
Why?
Unlike everyone else in the Nov 2 election,
Christine O’Donnell will be seated immediately
if she wins.
The GOP elite want failure. They want delay.
Did you see the DE race feature and discussion on yesterday’s This Week (ABC)?
Another hit piece / segment. George Will was the only voice of reason, but the “extreme” charge in historical context.
Check it here: http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/
If there is an extremist in this race it is Coons. O’Donnell “extreme” views as far as I can tell are derived from her Catholic faith so if folks want to call them extreme they will have to deal with the Church and 2000 years of history.
How can the truth about Coons get out in just two weeks?
Good post.
Brice, count me in your corner.
Christine is going to win on November 2nd, and then we ALL win when she votes against Cap and Trade in the Lame Duck Session.
Nov. 2nd will be seen in retrospect as the high water mark of Obama, Reid, Pelosi,the Democrat Party and the socialistic Progressives in America.
It is time to take our country back!
Your in danger of conflating national grassroots appeal to what will actually turnout and vote in Delaware.
It’s a liberal state. Certainly COD is a rockstar amongst many Tea Party folks and movement conservatives nationally, but that is simply not what will turn out at the polls in dark blue Delaware on Nov 2nd.
COD’s Facebook appeal means pretty much nothing in this particular race. You could find an awesome conservative African American candidate to run for mayor of Detroit who could also generate huge excitement on social networking sites, but he/she is still going to get crushed by whatever leftist ran against him/her under the Democrat banner.
I think the polls probably understate her support some, but not by all that much. I’m guessing she loses by 10 - which is really quite impressive considering what she has faced. I think the Party should support her even knowing this race is not terribly close. Failure to help her, even in a losing effort, risks infuriating the grass roots who nominated her.
This does have an impact on political polls in that very small state.
I pay for the internals from Rasmussen plus I like to bounce things off the publicly available CNN exit polling for previously elections to get a feel for where things are this year compared to previous. I have no doubt the Delaware race is closing. I knew the bogus University polls were wrong because they under-sampled the GOP. The key for Christine is to define Coons with more ads like the “Tax Man”. She also needs to tie him to Obama who is underwater in Delaware. If I were her I’d also run an immigration ad. A good positive ad would be one casting her as a reformer someone who will make the tough decisions to cut government spending.
The formula this election isn’t really tough. Its tougher for Christine because of self-centered Republicans who like they did with Rick Scott in FL chose to attack her like she was a Democrat with stuff they knew wasn’t entirely true. Neither establishment Republicans ran on their record which is telling.
Christine needs an ad that details a ‘Promise’ from her to the electorate of Delaware. She is very good at contacting with people. The big thing in her favor is that she is still pulling down tons of money. People really want to see her win. She has GO-TEA-V on her side and that should not be underestimated.
Very leftwing place.
You probably already know this but the quisling Rove’s protege is former Mittens Deputy Campaign Manager, Carl Forti, who is one of the puppetmasters for the American Crossroads RINO operation. I suspect he is behind the attempted hit job on O’Donnell.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43731.html
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Carl_Forti
As usual, the greasy fingerprints of the cowardly Romney are on every innuendo hurled at true conservatives.
Christine O’Donnell vs Bearded Marxist tuesday radio 8am..9:30am WDEL.com Go Christine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Very thoughtful analysis, thanks.
It’s interesting (and surprising, for traditionalists) to start to see how Facebook and the internet are overtaking factors like NRSC in determining the outcome of elections. I see this as a good thing, as it pushes power and influence closer to the common man, and away from the formerly-smoke-filled backrooms.
Delaware voters are entitled to know if Chris Coons has financial designs on taxpayers and if Chris Coons intends to use a Senate seat to aide his cronies as he did with his New Castle County executive job.
Candidate Chris Coons Voted To Open A Pension Loophole That Would Have Allowed County Employees To Buy Into The Pension System, Or To Transfer Credit From Other Government Service. Forget taxpayers----Chris Coons Saw To It That His Buddies And Top Staff People — And All Six Of The New County Council Members And Their Staffs — Were Grandfathered Under The state pension Loophole Which Has, And Will, Cost Taxpayers Millions Of Dollars.
In 2004, while campaigning to become New Castle County’s top executive, Dem Chris Coons promised not to raise taxes. Since then he has raised taxes three times.
Are Coons' Delaware political cronies pocketing state pensions double dippers, working in government jobs, and/or collecting other government checks, like disability? (Like Bell, Cali scammers did?)
Does the New Castle County executive handle the county's insurance? EXAMPLE In federal court Monday, an insurance broker (in another state) colluded with officials in a massive bribery scheme:
-- Padding insurance contracts by $500,000 to $600,000 a year;
-- Several hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits from the insurance broker were funneled to the officials in exchange for support of the insurance contracts;
-- The purchase of an apartment as a favor to one official;
-- About $8,000 a month in payments to the official to keep the insurance contacts going;
-- A $20,500 Rolex woman's watch given to the official as a gift to an unnamed district employee;
-- A $35,800 Rolex men's watch was given to the official;
-- The insurance broker paid various personal expenses of the official, including the pay down of a $20,000 home equity line of credit; $12,747 in appliances; $5,850 for a plumber; and $13,592 to buy appliances for a relative.
-- The insurance broker was charged with stealing $216,000 from the muni for a nonexistent wellness program for muni workers. ...........the insurance broker is alleged to have lied to the school's insurance carrier, falsely stating that the muni authorized the insurance carrier to pay fees on behalf of the muni from its medical claims bank account for health care related programs and services that never existed. Charges including money laundering, conspiracy, forgery and theft by deception.
I don’t know what’s going to happen but I know that the climate does NOT favor Coons at all. He’s a dreary marxist.
See the earlier Alan Keyes post for a much better explanation.
“COD’s Facebook appeal means pretty much nothing in this particular race.”
Keep telling yourself that. In fact, I predieted a long time before it happened, based on her Facebook trends alone that she swousl defeat Castle. You are telling me Facebook predicted she could defeat Castle who had been elected statewide about a dozen times (and beat him pretty convincingly 53-47) and yet
“It’s a liberal state.”
It is more like a “controlled” state in which the two party Establishments have collaborated to serve up Establishment Candidates.
Obviously, Delaware is not Mississippi. But as recently as 2009, it had an ideological breakdown (not party ID, but ideology) that was roughly comparable to Ohio (38-39-19) and Florida (39-37-19). In other words, it is not out of reach.
Delaware is distinctly more conservative than California (33-38-25)and Maryland (33-39-24).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
Just because the Democrat and GOP Establishments are liberal doesn’t necessarily mean the grassroots are. Up until recently, the process in DE has been rigged. Both the GOP and the Dem Establishments offered up left of center candidates and basically decided beforehand who would be permitted to win (Hence the infamous “swap” of seats between Carper and Castle in 1992 and the attempt to do the same with Biden’s seat this year).
O’Donnell is the first politician to break this rigged system. My point is not that DE is easy to win. It is that it is easier to win than Massachusetts, California, Maryland and a host of other states and not that much more difficult than Ohio or Pennsylvania. If the GOP can be winning in PA and Ohio by healthy margins, there is absolutely no reason why DE can’t be taken. (Reagan carried it in 1980, 1984 and by proxy in 1988). Nixon won it twice as well. The moderate Ford lost it in 1976.
The GOP with decidedly more moderate candidates in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008 lost it every time. There certainly has not been any demographic shift to explain this (as there has been in California). The most conservative candidate in the 20th Century won it THREE times.
In a year like this, DE can be won. Especially with a candidate with the skills and appeal of Christine O’Donnell.
“COD’s Facebook appeal means pretty much nothing in this particular race.”
Keep telling yourself that. In fact, I predicted a long time before it happened, based on her Facebook trends alone that she would defeat Castle. You are telling me Facebook predicted she could defeat Castle who had been elected statewide about a dozen times (and beat him pretty convincingly 53-47) and yet it is useless in a race against a nobody like Coons? The polls have been pretty useless this cycle and there is evidence to support that.
[completed post and fixed typos]
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