Posted on 10/19/2010 7:12:38 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
Unlike Other Devices, Power Packs May Not Enjoy Major Economies of Scale
The push to get electric cars on the road is backed by governments and auto makers around the world, but they face a big hurdle: the stubbornly high cost of the giant battery packs, which can account for more than half the cost of an electric vehicle.
Both the industry and government are betting that a quick takeoff in electric-car sales will drive down the battery prices. But a number of scientists and automotive engineers believe cost reductions will be hard to come by.
Unlike with tires or toasters, battery packs aren't likely to enjoy traditional economies of scale as their makers ramp up production, the scientists and engineers say.
A123 Systems in Michigan is counting on demand for electric cars despite the steep cost of its battery packs. These experts say increased production of batteries means the price of the key metals used in their manufacture will remain steady—or maybe even rise—at least in the short term. They also say the price of the electronic parts used in battery packs as well as the enclosures that house the batteries aren't likely to decline appreciably.
The U.S. Department of Energy has set a goal of bringing down car-battery costs by 70% from last year's price by 2014.
-snip-
Current industry estimates say the battery pack in the all-electric Nissan Leaf compact car coming out in December costs Nissan Motor Co. about $15,600.
That cost will make it difficult for the Leaf, which is priced at $33,000, to turn a profit. And it also may make the Leaf a tough sell, since even with federal tax breaks of $7,500, the car will cost about twice the $13,520 starting price of the similar-size Nissan Versa hatchback.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Heck the Leaf is such a dinky car I bet that you could do a gas conversion for it with a two-stroke motor. Heck, use the engine from a Citroen 2CV.
Ah, so we can millions of appliances plugged-in sucking up juice all night.
To me the only electric car worth buying is one that can be charged solely for free, either its by solar cells on board or through a landline or it has some form of fuel cell that converts water to hydrogen and then to electrical.
I have no problem with an electric vehicle, the problem is that its like becoming a heroin addict, you will be forced to keep up the habit of battery replacement and electrical usage, you become a slave to its needs.
There are ways to get free electricity with proper planning and some investment.
Ultimately I think electric cars will be disposable vehicles, nobody will buy one for its classic value, and its options later in life may be limited to just what a person is willing to do to keep it on the road, I have several old power tools that are nearly useless now because their battery packs are now obsolete, the same will happen in a few years with these cars.
I like the internal combustion engine. It is very reliable and powerful and runs on relatively cheap and abundant fuel.
When you mentioned “two stroke motor” I think you made at least a dozen green zombies have a stroke.
I remember the good old days of interstate busses using Detroit Diesels which are two stroke, personally I think its possible to create a pretty clean large two stroke engine for automotive use.
I agree on this: the only electric vehicle I like is a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.
>>Current industry estimates say the battery pack in the all-electric Nissan Leaf compact car coming out in December costs Nissan Motor Co. about $15,600.<<
If you’re looking to recoup your financial losses, design a cheaper battery pack. Or buy coal stock.
Nothing, it will cost the person disposing of it a considerable amount IMHO........
Problem is the amount of lithium mined annually will support enough large lithium ion batteries for 40 to 60 thousand vehicles per year. Lithium mines are in South America and Western Africa. Most of it is owned by China. Can we say OOPS!!!!!
I used to have a lawn mower with a Clinton two-stroke motor on it. There was a spool on the end of the crankshaft that you had to wrap a rope around for starting.
Major companies say otherwise. There will be a strong market in recycling used ev batteries.
My Dad had one back in the 50s, I remember mowing with it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5USNqweOpbw
Yeah it’s kind of a myth that cold weather kills batteries.
HOT weather is what kills batteries.
Of course under the hood in Arizona it gets pretty darn hot.
only about 50% of the US juice is from coal
so a lot of places will charge with hydro, nat gas, or nuke juice
(not that I’m advocating this but wanted to correct the point)
$15,000 will by 5000 gallons at $3/gal. That’s 150,000 miles at 30 mpg. Doesn’t really sound very cost effective at all, especially when you consider the thing has to be recharged and electricity isn’t free, and that most of these cars are also gasoline assisted.
100% of the world's automotive engineers disagree.
But there's always room for breakthroughs.
So the power producers (who, for decades, have been generating 'baseline' power at night and 'peaking' power for daytime increases) will just generate daytime levels 24/7.
What could possibly go wrong?
Sadly, there is no Moore’s Law for chemestry.
I want to see the look on the face of a EV owner when he goes to trade it in and the dealer tells him it has ZERO trade in value...
Or the dealer tells the owner that there is a $2000 HAZMAT fee for dropping it off.
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