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http://www.floridavoterfile.com/statistics/FLORIDA.HTM

Voter Registration in Florida.

Democrats 41%
Republicans 35%
Other/indy 24%

statewide early voting
53 Republicans
33 Democrats
14 Indy

So,
Republicans +18
Democrats -8
Indy -10

is this basically how it’s been working nationally?

Let’s assume so.

So, if you want to check the polls in a particular state, figure out how many registered Republicans there are in a particular state, as a percentage, and add 18%.

Did the pollster talk to that many Republicans? If not, the poll is very possibly undercounting Republicans, and the poll is questionable on that basis.

In Delaware, it’s 47% Dems, 29% Reps, 24% indy.

Add in the 18 to Reps, subtract 8 from Dems and 10 from Indy
and you get - 47% Republicans, 39% Dems, 14% Indy. Is this what the polls say in Delaware?

Well, no, not at all.

Survey USA talked to 45% Dems, 32% Republicans, 21% Indys.
They talked to way too few Republicans and too many Dems and Indys.

Monmouth talked to more Indys (self identified?) than Democrats and more Democrats than Republicans. Roughly 31.2% Republicans. It should be, based on what we’re seeing on the ground, 47%. Short 16%.

Magellan had it at 47% Dems, 38% Reps, 15% Indy. That’s the closest to Florida. Add 9% to Reps, subtract 8% from Dems, subtract 1 from Indys.

Note that if you give 9% to Christine and take 9 away from Coons, it’s pretty much a toss up. And 10% to Christine and 10% from Coons means Christine wins.