Strong early-vote numbers for GOP [Florida]

The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats has for months been cited as a harbinger to major Republican Party victories in the Nov. 2 mid-term elections.

And if early voting is any indication, that barometer appears justified, both locally and across Florida.

Through the first three full days of early voting, ending Wednesday, Republicans were dominating Democrats in Sarasota County. That is sending a panic through local Democrats who fear that unless the trend is quickly reversed, they could be looking at wholesale defeats, including a loss for incumbent state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, D-Sarasota.

Of the 8,600 votes cast early in Sarasota County, just 30 percent were by Democrats. Republicans comprised 53 percent of the voters. The remaining 17 percent were supporters of minor parties or held no party affiliation.

Statewide, Republicans are also leading Democrats in early voting. Of the 778,000 early voters so far, just 33 percent statewide have been Democrats compared with 53 percent Republicans.

Compounding Democrats' problems: Early voting before this year was seen as one of the party's strengths. Statewide, Democrats beat Republicans in early voting in both 2006 and 2008.

Likewise, in Sarasota County more Democrats cast ballots early than did Republicans in 2006 and 2008, even though the county has more registered Republicans.

Fitzgerald added that he believed Republicans were more energized this year, but he did not expect the numbers that he is seeing so far in early voting.

Fitzgerald said if Democrats do not start voting soon, he knows he will be in trouble come Nov. 2 in his hotly contested District 69 re-election bid.

The numbers have been a big confidence boost for Republicans such as Ray Pilon, who is challenging Fitzgerald. Pilon, who has had to overcome doubts in his own party that he could win, said the numbers have lifted his supporters' morale.

Pilon won't be the only one celebrating if the early voting edge stays with the GOP. The turnout could bode well for Republicans in statewide contests. That includes gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott, who is counting on a big GOP turnout in Sarasota County to help him win what is expected to be Florida's closest race for governor in over a decade.

Sarasota Republican Party chairman Joe Gruters said the early-voting numbers are proving that Republican voters have more vigor this year.

“Republicans are energized,” Gruters said just after Scott's running mate, Jennifer Carroll, was in Sarasota to encourage local Republicans to keep up their efforts to turn out the early voters.

“We don't expect to win early voting, but any lead at all is shocking at this point and a testament to the incredible enthusiasm amongst Republicans,” said Dan Conston, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida.

That kind of thinking explains why top national prognosticators are expecting Republicans to register big gains in both houses of Congress, and in gubernatorial offices across the nation.

Frustration with President Barack Obama and anger at the sagging economy have combined to be a major motivator for Republicans.

Sarasota Democratic Party chairwoman Rita Ferrandino admits there was an initial panic that set it when she saw only 30 percent Democrats in the early-voting numbers. But the more she has investigated what is going on, the more she is convinced that the U.S. Senate race is causing the voter turnout disparity for Democrats.

Ferrandino said many of the county's best Democratic voters — those who never miss an election — report to her that they are holding off in case Democrat Kendrick Meek or independent Charlie Crist drop out of the Senate race against Republican Marco Rubio.

By the time local Democrats hold their big early-vote turnout rally at Sarasota's Island Park on Oct. 30, Ferrandino said ,the numbers should begin breaking back toward Democrats.

Eric Jotkoff, a spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party, said there should be no concern at all.

“We are right where we expected to be at this point in the cycle and look forward to celebrating huge victories this November when Florida elects Democratic leaders up and down the ballot,” Jotkoff said.

http://www.floridavoterfile.com/statistics/FLORIDA.HTM

Voter Registration in Florida.

Democrats 41%
Republicans 35%
Other/indy 24%

statewide early voting
53 Republicans
33 Democrats
14 Indy

So,
Republicans +18
Democrats -8
Indy -10

is this basically how it’s been working nationally?

Let’s assume so.

So, if you want to check the polls in a particular state, figure out how many registered Republicans there are in a particular state, as a percentage, and add 18%.

Did the pollster talk to that many Republicans? If not, the poll is very possibly undercounting Republicans, and the poll is questionable on that basis.

In Delaware, it’s 47% Dems, 29% Reps, 24% indy.

Add in the 18 to Reps, subtract 8 from Dems and 10 from Indy
and you get - 47% Republicans, 39% Dems, 14% Indy. Is this what the polls say in Delaware?

Well, no, not at all.

Survey USA talked to 45% Dems, 32% Republicans, 21% Indys.
They talked to way too few Republicans and too many Dems and Indys.

Monmouth talked to more Indys (self identified?) than Democrats and more Democrats than Republicans. Roughly 31.2% Republicans. It should be, based on what we’re seeing on the ground, 47%. Short 16%.

Magellan had it at 47% Dems, 38% Reps, 15% Indy. That’s the closest to Florida. Add 9% to Reps, subtract 8% from Dems, subtract 1 from Indys.

Note that if you give 9% to Christine and take 9 away from Coons, it’s pretty much a toss up. And 10% to Christine and 10% from Coons means Christine wins.

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