Posted on 10/23/2010 6:15:50 AM PDT by no dems
One of my readers, Charlie, takes a look at the early voting numbers from 2008 and compares them to the early voting numbers in 2010, or at least so far.
He finds, “in every state where there is partisan split data for both years, the Republicans have gained in early voting.” The shift in partisan turnout has ranged from Republicans gaining 4.2 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (West Virginia) to 27.4 percentage points in the 2008 numbers (Florida).
(The stunning figure is that 52.8 percent of the more than 778,000 early votes in Florida this year come from registered Republicans.)
Colorado’s early vote is 7.1 percentage points more Republican.
Iowa’s early vote is 10.2 percentage points more Republican.
Louisiana’s early vote is 25.9 percentage points more Republican.
Maine’s early vote is 13.3 percentage points more Republican.
North Carolina’s early vote is 14.9 percentage points more Republican.
In Clark County, Nevada, it is 7.1 percent more Republican; in Washoe County, Nevada, it is 11 percent more Republican.
“The average of these states show that early voting has shifted from a D+16.6 partisan split to a D+1.7 partisan split for a Republican gain of +14.9% since 2008,” Charlie concludes.
Nice.
They are down in the number of votes cast, but from a % standpoint they over preforming from years past.
I travel and wanted to be sure I got to vote, so I did so last Wednesday in Denver. Dickenlooper is my mayor, I do NOT want him as my governor. I really do not like mail in, as my sister never got hers last election.
CA may break even this time out. If estimates at census.gov are good, it’s:
TX +3, NV +1, UT +1, SC +1, AZ +1, WA +1, GA +1, FL +1
OH -2, NY -1, IL -1, PA -1, MI -1, NJ -1, MA -1, LA -1, IA -1.
On the bubble:
431 MO 9
432 CA 53 (CA is closer to losing one than gaining one)
433 SC 7
434 MN 8
435 WA 10
436 OH 17
437 FL 27
438 OR 6
439 TX 36
440 IL 19
Wow! My homestate of Texas +3 ? Alright!!! Notice, with the exception of WA, all the States gaining EVs and Congressional seats are Red States. Blue States are losing them, except Louisiana.
Georgia needs to be +2. I would much prefer that we lose Sanford Bishop over Jim Marshall. But Marshall is definitely toast.
Oh, nevermind. Those are total seat gains - not GOP gains. My bad.
Great news - thanks for posting this...
I always vote early (shorter wait in line and a more convenient location) and I think it would be hard to get people to go back to voting on one day only, but I could see reducing the voting days—maybe limit them to the Saturday, Sunday, and Monday before the traditional election Tuesday.
mark
Agree. I do think early voting should be restricted to only about 4 days or so before the election.
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