Early Voting Numbers

AJC ^ | 10/25/10 | Jamie Dupree

[freespirited]

In Nevada, where Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is fighting hard against Republican Sharron Angle, Republicans have 42.5% of the early votes to 42.4% for Democrats, with Independents at 15%.

Good night, Harry.

[freespirited]

More numbers:

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[douginthearmy]

Are you kidding? That’s not nearly enough to clear the 5% democrat voter fraud gap.

[Aria]

West Virginia? I thought we had that? of course..it ain’t over till it’s over...

[nathanbedford]

Good Post.

Thanks.

[lquist1]

These numbers look good overall, but I can’t understand why some states would have a Dem edge in a supposed Republican tsunami. The only thing I can think of is these could be heavy union states where they have a strong early GOTV effort that is intentionally designed to skew these numbers and give the appearance of enthusiasm on the Dem side.

It’s either that or the wave may not be as big as we had hoped :(

[BuckyKat]

Dang. Nothing from Hawaii. We’ve got at least a couple of very close races, early voting, and a ton of annoying Barack Obama ads.

[excopconservative]

Trying to make sense of the numbers is like navigating in the fog without a compass. We have no idea how many democrats are voting Republican or what the independents are doing. We also don’t know that the early turnout won’t be offset by lower numbers on election day.

More and more districts are in play every day and that tells me the wave is building. Don’t let anyone be fooled by phony polling in the last week. If voters use the healthcare plan and the stimulus votes to determine who they are voting for, all predictions and bets are off and some previously unpolled and “safe” democrats will be looking for jobs.

[4rcane]

i’m not as optimistic. We need to add a few percentage points to the democrat side for fraud

[truthfreedom]

I was looking at North Carolina. On the stats for the 2008 early voting, there’s stats about early voting 2004 North Carolina.

This year the Republicans in North Carolina are doing 5 points better than in 2004. George Bush in 2004 was the best Republican performance Presidential since Reagan in 1984.

There was a very tight linkage between party turnout and presidential performance 2004 and 2008.

Obama outperformed Kerry net 12.5 points.
Early voting Dems were up 2.8 Republicans were down 7.2 Indys up 4.4.

If there was a presidential race this year - Republican 59% - Democrat 41%.

North Carolina
56 - 43.6 bush kerry - 12.4 (5.1) = 17.5
49.7-49.38 obama mccain -
2008 2004 2010
Dem 51.4% 48.6% 44.3%
Rep 30.2% 37.4% 38.2%
None 18.5% 14.1% 17.4%
Best Results in North Carolina since 1984 Reagan Landslide.

[fortheDeclaration]

No, Democrats just usually vote early.

Republicans like to vote on election day.

So, the early voting should go the Democrats even in a GOP tsunaumi.

[fortheDeclaration]

We also don’t know that the early turnout won’t be offset by lower numbers on election day.

Very unlikely, GOP voters are very anxious to vote, so it looks like the numbers could equal that of a Presidential year.

[screaminsunshine]

Iowa will be IOUA if they lose the freebie farm welfare and actually have to grow crops.

[wiggen]

Its by registration. Its not telling you who someone actually voted for.

[Revel]

“So if the current numbers hold on, then the GOP would have a 27-point swing in their favor in early voting numbers.”

That is assuming that the electronic voting machine process is not rigged. It would be nice to see the actual vote totals. I bet we never will see them in stand alone form.

[jazzlite]

...”We need to add a few percentage points to the democrat side for fraud.”...

This is very concerning..What would happen if it became obvious to the people that widespread fraud had occurred all over the nation, literally stealing the government?

[Liz]

ping #10

[REPANDPROUDOFIT]

As for bright spots for Democrats, in Iowa they have a 45.9-38.1% edge in early votes.

IOWA? Would someone please explain what is going on in this prairie state!

[nathanbedford]

There could very well be a lot of Democrats voting Republican. Bulldogs, Reagan Democrats, farmers, even women, everybody but minorities and public employees might want to send a message if they feel that they have been had and defrauded by their own party.

If you know your Huckleberry Finn, you know that was the reaction of the people in Arkansas to being defrauded and presumed upon.

[REPANDPROUDOFIT]

Ok - you got me with the Huck Finn statement. It's been a long time since I read it.

I simply think of these mid-western farm states as highly conservative with strong family values. It seems like they would be highly offended by Obama and the Congress's disdain of traditional American values. Am I misreading the populace? Or is it like someone says above, that it has to do with the farm subsidies?