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Posted on 10/24/2010 11:32:47 PM PDT by freespirited
Everyone in the political world is trying to figure out who is going to win on Election Day, so what better to whet your appetite than some data from states about early voting.
This material comes from a professor at George Mason University in Virginia who specializes in early voting, as Dr. Michael McDonald runs a web site that posts early voting data, some of which includes a breakdown by party of who is voting.
For example in Florida, almost 800,000 votes are already in, and when you look at the party breakdown, you see that 52.8% of the ballots are in from Republicans to 33.7% for Democrats.
I don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that GOP votes are coming in at a 19% higher clip than the Democrats in Florida.
Go back two years, when the Democrats did very well in Florida with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot, and you will see that Democrats had an 8% edge in early voting in the Sunshine State.
So if the current numbers hold on, then the GOP would have a 27-point swing in their favor in early voting numbers.
Does that sound like something we've been calling the "enthusiasm gap?"
Granted, just because one party votes doesn't mean that party is getting all those votes. But McDonald says it's not too far off.
"People who self-identify with a particular party, who register with a particular party, are much more likely to vote for that party," McDonald said in an interview.
"It gives you some clues, but of course, it's not a definitive end-all to what the election outcome is going to be," he added.
Some states don't publicly post such data, so McDonald has been able to figure out a number of ways to get access to it, like in Georgia, which has had over 300,000 votes come in so far via early voting and absentee.
Other states publish a bevy of information, like California, which makes you wish they just ran a scoreboard of all votes every day, so we could watch this dern election like a football scoreboard for a full month.
As for some data from key states, Republicans are doing well in Colorado, where 41.8% of early votes have come in from the GOP, versus 36.5% for Democrats and 21% for Independents.
Compare that to 2008, when Democrats had 37.7% of the early votes, Republicans had 35.9% and Independents were at 26.4%.
In Nevada, where Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is fighting hard against Republican Sharron Angle, Republicans have 42.5% of the early votes to 42.4% for Democrats, with Independents at 15%.
In that state, there are two big counties, Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, and Washoe County, which is where Reno is located.
In Clark County, Democrats have the edge in early votes at 46.5% to 37.8% for the GOP. In 2008, the spread was 52-30% for the Dems.
In Washoe County, Republicans have the edge in early votes at 46.2% to 40% for the Democrats. In 2008, Democrats had the edge in early votes from Washoe County, 47.1-35.3%.
As for bright spots for Democrats, in Iowa they have a 45.9-38.1% edge in early votes.
And in Ohio, while there are not numbers broken down by party affiliation, big numbers of votes are already in from two Democratic strongholds, Cuyahoga County around Cleveland and Franklin County around Columbus.
Put this site on your favorites and keep checking it over the next eight days. I love stats, and this is a good one:
http://is.gd/ggOOv
You’re right. But there is no way for us to know how people voted at this point in the process.
That spreadsheet tells us ‘the fix is in’.
“This is very concerning..What would happen if it became obvious to the people that widespread fraud had occurred all over the nation, literally stealing the government?”
They’ve stolen everything else over the last two years, I’m not sure why I should be surprised. This won’t be over until they’re all tar, feathered and run out on a rail.
Sorry I am a Registered Democrat and I have Not Voted that way for 30 years
I thought Terry Branstad was ahead in the race for IA gov. in every poll. If Dems have this big of a lead in early voting either a lot of them are voting for Branstad, or perhaps there are just more Democrat voters there so naturally they would be turning out in larger numbers?
Lets just hope 25,000 of them don’t vote 3rd party (Barr in 08) like they did in 2008 - giving NC to Obama.
Nothing.
I think the comparison should be made over 2006 rather than 2008 as that was a presidential election year. There are larger turnouts during presidential years as opposed to non presidential years. The same trend may be present in those years but I think it would be meaningful.
Texas data for the top 15 counties indicates that the total will be up over 2006 but will fall significantly short of the 2008 number. That trend is typical for years back in Texas that I have looked at.
Example Texas has just over 13% turnout of early voting/mail in ballots during non presidential years 2006 and 2002. Whereas it had over 42% in 2008.
**Good night, Harry.**
Man, I HOPE that is right!
I would love to be rid of Whorehouse Harry once and for all!
2008 is the best data we have because early voting really didn’t take hold until 2008. It’s going to take a few election cycles to really pin it down so we can compare apples to apples.
In person early voting has been in place in Texas for several election cycles so that is my experience. I don’t know when other states placed it into effect. But my point is based upon voting patterns there are normally less voters in non presidential elections. The numbers may actually favor the Republicans more if it could be compared to an off year. In the end it will be what it will be regardless of the cycle.
I don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that GOP votes are coming in at a 19% higher clip than the Democrats in Florida.
No rocket scientists required, but a basic knowledge of math and ratios is required to realize that 52.8% vs 33.7% is a 56.7% HIGHER CLIP NOT 19% WHICH IS JUST THE NUMERICAL DIFFERENCE.
Man, I hate it when rocket scientists pose as mathematicians.
this drives me crazy too. I see it all the time ... even saw it in the Stanford U student newspaper.
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Cute posting devolve. I hope Harry’s shoe bomb goes off!
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It took a while -
But I believe El Rushbo, FNC, FR and other sites finally woke up some of those that ran out of Obama’s unemployment stash.....
- O’Reilly appears to be going more aggressive and Conservative - He is going after the “Muslim Threat” right now -
- Another CAIR pimp on O’Reilly’s show right now - Refusing to answer Bill’s questions by asking another question:
“How many other countries besides America have Muslims attacked?”
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O’Reilly goes right after the CAIR (democrat shill) spinner -
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He has gone overboard on trying to be ‘fair and balanced’ too often and there were times he didn't know all the facts. But he's not bad. One week they like someone but let them say a disagreeable word and they are suddenly hated.
Same thing going on with birthers on the Lakin thread, fighting, fighting, name calling. I've learned to walk away and avoid those who annoy me, lol. It works!
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