Dems in deep danger

The Hill ^ | October 26, 2010 | The Hill Editors

[jazusamo]

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but sometimes foresight is pretty clear, too.

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, conducted over the past four weeks in 42 toss-up House districts, paints a clear picture of danger for Democrats.

In those races, all but two of which are currently in Democratic hands, Republican challengers were found to be ahead in 31. The Dems still held the edge in seven, and four were tied.

That 31, added to some 15 Dem seats that are so lost they weren’t even worth polling, would put the GOP pickup at 46 if voter sentiment does not change.

But 46 may lowball the Nov. 2 result by a considerable margin, too, because there are another 40 or 50 seats many experts say are in play. Republicans need to win only a handful of these to put their gains above the 50-seat threshold, and few would argue that 60 is impossible.

A margin of that size would be historic; the 54 seats Republicans won in 1994 to take control of the House for the first time in 40 years is still cited as a blowout, a revolution and other locutions suggesting massive importance. There have been bigger Republican wins, but you have to go back to the days of FDR to find one.

All this is appropriately chastening to the many in 2006 and still more in 2008 who suggested that the GOP was out for a generation. But big election results tend to be chastening only to the losers. Forty years in the minority did not stop the GOP adopting the ways of an over-comfortable majority once it had been in congressional power for a few terms. And it appears to have taken Democrats just two terms to make voters queasy.

Some of that is doubtless due to the general dyspepsia produced by a sour economy. But some, detectable in our poll numbers revealing disquiet over federal spending and a high level of disapproval of President Obama, suggests that Democrats may have failed to learn lessons about overreach that become clear during years out of power.

By this time next week we will know whether the indications in The Hill’s poll are borne out by voter actions in the nation’s polling booths. And soon thereafter, we may start to see whether another new majority has already learned or needs voters again to teach lessons the hard way.

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll Stories WEEK 4 Blowout: 50 or more Dem seats set to fall Endangered species: Longterm incumbents GOP tsunami ready to sweep the South District by district Data: The numbers the stories are based on Editorial: Dems in deep danger	District by district results Colorado Florida Georgia Indiana Iowa North Dakota Pennsylvania South Carolina South Dakota Texas
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll Stories WEEK 3 Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates District by district Data: The numbers the stories are based on Editorial: Election tides	District by district results Arizona Illinois Mississippi New Hampshire New York Pennsylvania Wisconsin
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll Stories WEEK 2 - Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists - Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs - Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts - Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats - After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy - Majority of voters say they want a viable third party - District by district - Data: The numbers the stories are based on - Editorial: The results so far	District by district results Arkansas Illinois West Virginia Hawaii New Hampshire Pennsylvania Michigan Tennessee Washington
The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm Election Poll Stories WEEK 1 - Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp - Tea Party is firing up the Democrats - Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election - About the poll - GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight - Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election - Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican - Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines - Editorial: Knowing who will win	District by district results Arizona Colorado Illinois Maryland Michigan Nevada New Mexico Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia

 

 

[Balding_Eagle]

The Dems were in deep danger in 1968.

Since then the Dems have disappeared, replaced by Marxists.

[fuzzybutt]

Hope they are in far more danger than this fellow predicts.

[SamAdams76]

Mark this down...I predict a 112-seat pickup on Tuesday night.

[Tax Government]

Democrats under Obama are attempting nothing short of a coup against our form of government. They represent communism or socialism, take your pick.

[jazusamo]

I believe they are, The Hill leans left.

[jazusamo]

I’m praying you’re right!

[jazusamo]

Please bump the Freepathon and donate or become a monthly donor!

[fullchroma]

Mark this down...I predict a 112-seat pickup on Tuesday night.

I want the Senate. Will we take the Senate?

/back to biting my nails

[purplelobster]

If Barry continues going to DNC benefit dinners and snubbing the hosts by telling them he would rather go home and scoop poop than eat their carefully prepared dinners the Senate is lost for the Dems. Barry can’t restrain his contempt for even his own supporters.

[Principled]

Holy crap Sam.

explain....

[catfish1957]

112? I wish that was realistic, but I think 90ish is probably a better guess.

[Freddd]

Mark this down...I predict a 112-seat pickup on Tuesday night.

—
I hope it’s 100 in the House and 12 in the Senate!

[SamAdams76]

Massive suburban turnout.

[Qout]

The Cocktail Party Democrats are collapsing just like the Bourbon Party Democrats did in ‘94.

[Principled]

You could be right - underlying such a surprise would have to be something that is preventing polling from predicting such a kill.

You think 0bama’s numbers are inflated by those who don’t want to answer negatively for fear of being called racist? I know he’s not on the ballot of course but there has been such a connection by press of 0bama, his agenda, and racist opposition that I think this may be happening.

Folks dislike him and his agenda far, far more than they’re willing to admit?

I think this is gonna be a factor... but 112 is a stretch even for me!

[jazusamo]

Barry can’t restrain his contempt for even his own supporters.

You're correct, he's truly a despicable person. How he was elected will be a subject written about for many years to come.

[Popman]

Mark this down...I predict a 112-seat pickup on Tuesday night.

Probably correct if there is no voter fraud.

More like 60 to 65 with the 2 % of the vote fraud taken into consideration

[Balding_Eagle]

Barry can’t restrain his contempt for even his own supporters.

I think that's his way of pushing the voters to vote Republican.

I'm convinced that he wants it to be bloodbath.

I'm also convinced he can't believe how inept the Repubs are.

[luvbach1]

Mark this down...I predict a 112-seat pickup on Tuesday night.

I'd trade a few of those seats for control of the senate.