Absentee and Early Voting Continue to Trend Republican

RNC ^ | 10/26/10 | Gentry Collins

[freespirited]

Absentee and early voting returns across the country so far in 2010 indicate that the composition of the electorate will be dramatically different than it was in 2008.  The Republican National Committee, working with state Republican parties, has placed a strong emphasis this year on encouraging presidential-year-only Republicans to cast their votes by absentee ballot or early-in -person through both paid and volunteer voter contact. 

To date, the RNC has mailed 7.4 million absentee ballot application forms to voters in competitive congressional districts and placed 6 million paid phone calls to low- and mid-propensity recipients to encourage them to vote absentee.

The RNC has dropped 6.7 million early vote promotion mail pieces to targeted voters and chased those mail pieces with 5.5 million paid phone calls.

Our 360 Victory offices have made 6.2 million volunteer voter contacts (both phone and door-to-door) to promote absentee voting and chase outstanding Republican ballots.  The Victory program has made an additional 4.6 million volunteer voter contacts to promote early voting.  That’s on top of the 24.4 million persuasion, ID, and GOTV calls made by our volunteers so far this year.

Let’s look at some specific results in a few states:

Colorado

Democrats in Colorado had an advantage of 28,357 absentee and early votes going in to Election Day in 2008, but this year Republicans have surged and currently lead with 19,616 more votes cast than the Democrats (a swing of 47,973 ballots cast).  That translates into a 5% lead (41.8%-36.7%) at this point, and a swing of 6.5% from 2008 when the final percentages were 35.77% Democrat and 34.25% Republican.

Colorado	2008 Raw	2008%	2010 Raw	2010%
GOP	638,588	34.25%	161,631	41.80%
DEM	666,945	35.77%	142,015	36.77%

 

North Carolina

At this point in 2008, Democrats had a 32% advantage among early voters, with over 420,000 more registered Democrats having voted early than Republicans. But in 2010, Democrats lead by less than 8 points among early voters after North Carolina Republicans closed the gap by 390,000 votes (a 24-point swing). And this year, even though Republicans make up less than 32 percent of registered voters in North Carolina, they make up more than 37% of early voters.

North Carolina	2008 Raw (10/28/08)	2008%	2010 Raw	2010%
GOP	337,376	25.47%	157,607	37.41%
DEM	757,841	57.21%	190,930	45.32%
IND/Other	228,811	17.27%	72,342	17.17%

 

Iowa

Democrats in Iowa have historically had a large advantage in absentee and early voting.  In 2008, Democrats went into Election Day with a 17-point lead (45.86% to 28.78%).  That lead has been cut to 7.04% so far this year (45.20% to 38.16%).  As a percentage of total votes cast, Republicans have increased by 9% while Democrats have shrunk.  And Iowa Republicans have a history of particularly large Election Day turnout advantages.

Iowa	2008 Raw	2008%	2010 Raw	2010%
GOP	156,986	28.78%	89,497	38.16%
DEM	250,104	45.86%	106,022	45.20%
IND/Other	138,328	25.36%	39,031	16.64%

 

Nevada

Democrats led in combined absentee and early voting by 11% in 2008.  With 257,000 ballots cast so far this year, the Democrat lead has shrunk to 2%, or about 5,000 votes.  Democrats have a 5% registration advantage in the state, meaning Republicans are outperforming registration by around 3%.

Nevada	2010 Raw	2010%
GOP	106,685	41.52%
DEM	111,917	43.56%
IND/Other	38,326	14.92%

 

Florida

Republicans currently lead in combined absentee returns and early votes by 200,000 voters and make up 52% of ballots cast while Democrats make up just 34%.  This is a remarkable turnaround from 2008 when Democrats went into Election Day with a 300,000 voter advantage.

Florida	2008 Raw	2008%	2010 Raw	2010%
GOP	1,635,843	37.95%	586,570	52.06%
DEM	1,935,672	44.90%	386,416	34.29%
IND/Other	739,360	17.15%	153,695	13.64%

 

Pennsylvania

Democrats have a 14% voter registration advantage, yet Republicans are leading in absentee returns by 19%.  Republicans lead absentee returns in six Democrat-held targeted congressional districts.

Ohio

Based solely on party registration (a potentially misleading statistic in Ohio where a voter’s party is determined by primary vote history alone) Democrats have seen their lead shrink from 285,000 votes cast (an 18% lead), in 2008 to a margin of only 36,000 this year.  RNC internal targeting has Republican voters casting 15,000 more ballots and leading absentee voting 44%-40%.  In the state’s three largest counties (Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton), Republicans have seen their share of the vote increase from 26% in 2008 to 40% this year.

Conclusion:

One week out from Election Day, Republican performance in absentee and early voting reflects the enthusiasm gap and likely turnout advantage seen in both internal and public polling.  Democrat claims of a stronger ground game are contradicted by the data and appear to be a brazen attempt to motivate a depressed base.

Combined with our traditional Election Day turnout advantage, this kind of absentee and early voting performance will drive Republican victories all over the country in 7 short days.

[freespirited]

LSM still trying to spin these numbers as promising for RATS.

[plinyelder]

What about the trunk-loads of ballots that haven’t been delivered yet by the Dims?

[FlingWingFlyer]

I was in Nevada today and decided to do a little early voting. I pushed Dingy Harry’s lever and three lemons came up! Weird.

[goldstategop]

Some of that’s misleading. I expect West Virginia to elect its first GOP Senator and Alabama to bring in the first GOP Statehouse since Ulysses Grant was President!

Wahoo!

[1035rep]

I doubt the DemonRats can cheat their way out of this one. Cheating can only take them so far.

[M1911A1]

They’ll still try and steal the close ones.

But, I begin to believe you are right...some of these whuppin’s are going to defy the usual fix.

[1035rep]

“I expect West Virginia to elect its first GOP Senator and Alabama to bring in the first GOP Statehouse since Ulysses Grant was President!”

Woo hoo! I can see next Tuesday from my house!

[ResearchMonkey]

Those Demoncrat ballots are waiting in a trunk somewhere just waiting to be discovered.

[BobP]

LSM still trying to spin these numbers as promising for RATS.

--------------------------

The Rats are shovel-ready for the dust bin of history.

[goldstategop]

I christen this America’s Rob Ford Election.

If Rob Ford could do it, so can we!

[Lazlo in PA]

Britt Hume made an astute comment on Hannity tonight. He didn’t trust the polls because they are not truely telling the tale of the enthusiasm gap.

Obummers poll numbers are sinking to the mid 30’s as he barnstorms. Everything is worse month over month economy wise. Visible evidence of no one going to Clinton or Biden speeches. Where would any Dim enthusiasm come from? The polls are all junk. We will crush these dopes worse than ‘94.

[Anti-Hillary]

Time to party like it’s 1773!!!!

[Paul8148]

That press release is behind in the CO numbers. Republicans up slighty more than 25,000 votes.......

[plinyelder]

A problem that I see coming .. IF these Bass-Turds can’t Cheat and win .. They will hold up Every loss with re-count demands .. which could go on .. for Months.

(All the while .. gathering their lost votes)

[screaminsunshine]

They will try if it is close enough. They are hiding stashes of ballots just for this purpose.

[plinyelder]

We are becoming a “Banana Republic”.

[screaminsunshine]

Yep. Time to stop em. The first order of biz should be to expose the corrupted media. That is where the dupes get their information.

[jmaroneps37]

Thanks for this post. Facts have a way of killing donkeys, don’t they?

[StonyBurk]

I voted early-and legal-and pray the machine that counts the vote is honest. I did not-will not vote for a single Democrat
unless our Lord and Savior Jesus the Christ comes back and commands me to vote for the political whore. I hope rumor that the Republican have “learned” from the spanking they received bears good fruit.I pray they will honor their Oath and defend the US Constitution —and our way of life. Then I can support them. But if they are like the Democrats and have no ears to hear I will oppose them by every means available.

[freespirited]

The right to demand recounts is typically defined by law. In VA I think it has to be less than 0.5% difference between the candidates ... or something like that.

I dont think RATS can demand a recount in a race that isnt close.