Posted on 10/28/2010 2:20:49 PM PDT by nbenyo
U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski told a half-filled gymnasium gathered for a rally featuring former President Bill Clinton on Tuesday that while his battle with Republican challenger Lou Barletta was neck and neck, “the momentum is on our side.”
In the previous two polls conducted by The Times Leader, and in a handful of other independent polls released over the past month, Barletta has been out in front, but the latest Times Leader poll shows likely voters chose the 13-term Democrat from Nanticoke over the three-term Hazleton mayor.
Of the 400 likely voters in the 11th Congressional District polled, 47 percent said they would vote for Kanjorski, 39 percent said they’d cast a ballot for Barletta and 12 percent were still undecided. The other 2 percent refused to answer. Just two weeks ago, a Times Leader poll had Barletta ahead 43 percent to 41 percent, with 16 percent undecided. The margin of error for the poll, and another one conducted for the 10th Congressional District race, was at plus or minus 4.9 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesleader.com ...
Help Lou Barletta if you can. I had not donated because I thought he was a shoo-in. http://www.loubarletta.com/
According to this all the undecideds broke for the Democrat.
Going to have to hope this poll is an outlier.
Statistically speaking, one poll may be off quite a bit. That's why whenever possible you look at the entire history and an average of recent polls. In this case, not too many polls to pick from, but it's obvious Kanjorski's been dead in the water for some time.
Porksylvania voters did this exact same thing in ‘08. Barletta led for quite a while then as well, only for Kanjorski to come back in the final days.
Some people just can’t help themselves, I guess.
400 respondants. Probably an unrepresentative poll. Error margin is 5%. It could also be 7%.
Not a good poll.
A 13 term incumbent at 47% by ONLY ONE POLL? Nah; Kanjorski is gone.
I believe Barletta’s 48% was the best showing nationwide against a Democratic incumbent in 2008.
It would be a shame if he came up short again this year, when the environment is way more favorable.
“A 13 term incumbent at 47% by ONLY ONE POLL? Nah; Kanjorski is gone.”
It was noted that Kanjorski trailed in the polls 2 years ago and then surged to win by 4%.
‘It was noted that Kanjorski trailed in the polls 2 years ago and then surged to win by 4%.’
2010 is not 2008.
I think Barletta wins, but you can never tell with PA voters. :)
Yes, people can sometimes just do idiotic things over and over and over and over. It's like a bad habit. They get used to voting for a certain person, and will just keep right on doing it no matter what their circumstances. They just feel comfortable with a name or a face, they identify with them somehow, and they just keep pulling the lever for their favorite incumbent Democrat.
To knock out Democrats like this you sometimes have to have a last minute surge, have something happen or a story break right at the end of the campaign that leaves voters angry ON election day.
Is this Dan Flood’s old district? I was maybe ten when he taught me about corrupt Dems.
This same paper has called a 7 point Toomey lead a “slim margin”, fully endorsed Sestak in both opinion and news reporting, portrayed the Tea Party as kooks, and most importantly, has a strong dislike of a major Barletta supporter.
With all that said, Kanjorski could still win, but it's doubtful.
On the positive side, the poll also shows Marino leading Carney.
I guess each district is reverting to its partisan preference.
But Barletta is a great candidate who has shown real leadership on illegal immigration. Marino seems a little flaky and may be a 1-termer.
Well, they haven’t asked this likely voter!
GO LOU!!!!!!!!
Republicans are leading RATS in early voting by more than 20 percentage points. I suspect this enthusiasm gap will finish off Kanjorski.
Carney & DNC ("Casino Marino") ads are really devastating. Hopefully Marino wins but those ads are effective, especially the latest one where Marino is blamed for putting pedophiles and other dirt bags back on the street. Obviously the US Attorney's office struck plea bargains. In some cases where minors are involved its the best the prosecution can do if the minor can't/won't testify.
From TODAY’S Scranton Times-Tribune
“New poll shows Barletta leading Kanjorski”
Who do YOU trust ???
The “new poll” showing Barletta ahead was actually taken last week (19-21st) before Clinton’s visit. The “bad” poll is more recent (24-25th). Hilary has roots in this district, so it’s conceivable Clinton provided a bounce.
Just donated $200 to Barletta. I’m really maxed out.
Yes, it is.
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