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Why Angle Lost
Pajamas Media ^ | November 6, 2010 | John Ransom

Posted on 11/06/2010 4:54:39 AM PDT by Kaslin

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To: EternalVigilance
Yeah, but the GOTV effort cannot be controlled chaos, it needs to be well-orchestrated, especially in the week before the campaign. Your best managers need to be there. Unfortunately, it is not interesting or glamorous, and for too many GOP campaigns, it is not a core effort.

And too many folks think that good ideas and being right are enough. It isn't against the Dem machine. The unions and government employees are voting their self-interest, and it shows in their effort and commitment level.

81 posted on 11/06/2010 6:44:13 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Call it strategy - call it logistics - whatever. But the NRCC “whack-a-mole” plan of spending money early in swing districts gave the appearance that those races were tightening up and ended up bringing a lot of seats into play that the Dems would not even have given a second thought to. Incumbents who usually had plenty of money to share with peers had to keep and spend it themselves.

Schwartz was one of those who had to hang on to her money because no one knew how far the wave was going to go. If it had gone up to 80, she may have been one of those who as swept away or who just barely survived.

Dems were playing catch up the last two months of the campaign and in many races, the die had been cast.


82 posted on 11/06/2010 6:45:18 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: Ann Archy

I never saw it as service - I met some great people and made a lot of new friends that I will work with again, either in campaigns or in volunteer organizations.


83 posted on 11/06/2010 6:46:22 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: C210N

If the likes of Alvin Greene can get thirty percent of the vote, conservatives have a built in disadvantage. A conservative with weaknesses easily exploited by the LSM can’t overcome that handicap.


84 posted on 11/06/2010 6:46:36 AM PDT by Notary Sojac (I've been ionized, but I'm okay now.)
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To: Kaslin

Angle was a disaster. Some of us knew this from the beginning but others refused to see it.

I knew Reid would win and it hacks me off because it was our chance to knock him out.

Angle was not strong enough to overcome the voter fraud that would happen.

Anyone who claimed Second Chance is a success in New Mexico in 2010 needs to have their head examined.

This interview by Baca was a indicator to me of how weak she was.

http://www.8newsnow.com/story/12670353/gop-senate-nominee-sharron-angle-breaks-her-silence

Tea Party cost this race.


85 posted on 11/06/2010 6:47:22 AM PDT by RummyChick
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To: dirtboy

Yep. They spend a fortune on TV ads and the real effort goes begging. I can name a couple of folks who would have had seats in Congress but for that silliness.


86 posted on 11/06/2010 6:49:01 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (The credit goes to the citizens. So does the blame. That's the price of being the sovereign.)
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To: wastoute
but how else do you go from “up 4%” to a 6% loss in ONE DAY

Why do people keep insisting that polls are always perfectly accurate representations of what voters will do?

Polls are only as good as their turnout models, and the exit polls show that the turnout model in nevada was wrong (except one republican pollster who seems to have gotten it right).

Nevada was one of those places where people inclined to vote for Reid turned out in higher numbers than expected. Some of this I believe was because we had an hispanic candidate running for Governor, which made hispanics more enthusiastic about voting; some was because of a solid push to get mostly-democrat union workers out.

In a state that tends democrat, the key is to say things that discourage your opponent's voters from showing up, while not turning off your own voters.

Angle somehow managed to spend too much time revving up her opponent's voters, and making the independents less interested in supporting her.

87 posted on 11/06/2010 6:49:05 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: dirtboy

This site is filled with liberals that want to attack the tea party and conservatives take a look at come more trash...

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/reids-letters-to-the-casinos-maybe-not-classy-but-not-voter-intimidation/2/

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/it-has-to-be-said-christine-odonnell-lost-because

This guy posting this stuff is a total lib trying to attack those like yourself who actually fought and cares about the nations survival...


88 posted on 11/06/2010 6:50:40 AM PDT by USSR Didnt Fall
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To: Maine Mariner; Kaslin
If conservatives are serious about winning elections you absolutely must attend the Leadership Institute:

the Leadership Institute

Classes are cheap, but the content is worth tens of thousands of dollars.

Who should attend?

Classes train: High Schoolers, College age/bound kids, and adults.

If you are considering a run or just working on a campaign and you care about winning you must attend. It'll make an enormous difference. Check it out and get ready for victory!

89 posted on 11/06/2010 6:50:51 AM PDT by 1010RD (First Do No Harm)
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To: USSR Didnt Fall

some


90 posted on 11/06/2010 6:51:34 AM PDT by USSR Didnt Fall
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To: muawiyah
BINGO. You just identified a winning *strategy* for taking out the Donks.

Assign a serious electoral threat to their leaders and they will spend all their money defending that leader, leaving their flanks exposed.

For the Donks, it's all about Power -- except when it's about EGO.

Cheers!

91 posted on 11/06/2010 6:51:42 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Interesting questions.

As in all campaigns, the variables that determine success OR failure are legion.


92 posted on 11/06/2010 6:51:54 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (The credit goes to the citizens. So does the blame. That's the price of being the sovereign.)
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To: Tolsti2
I agree, because they usually find votes for the democrat.

Why?

Well think a minute. A spoiled ballot is usually due to inattentiveness of the voter, confusion on the part of the voter, or just plain getting the instructions wrong. Which party's rank and file supporters are more likely to do that? Not the Republican!

Now when they go to recount, they start to look at those spoiled ballots and fight over those that are only marginally wrong. The election judges almost always rule in favor of these, as they want every vote to count. Since we don't have a law requiring an intelligence test to vote, these dummies then get counted in the end.

93 posted on 11/06/2010 6:56:30 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must-like men-undergo the fatigue of supporting it)
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To: randita

I really think that, from the way Schwartz reacted the last two weeks of the campaign, that her internals were showing Adcock within middle single-digits and closing. But Toomey gave the Philly Dems the GOTV foil to overcome the national Dem enthusiasm gap (the Dems hate his guts), and they poured a ton of money and effort into the race. Adcock ended up losing by under 13 points - half the marging of the two previous PA-13 races - and I think a lot of that came from the spillover from the anti-Toomey effort. I estimated that Dem turnout in Montco was over 60 percent - stunning - and Adcock’s winning model was for him to have 58 percent turnout (which he was very close to) and for the Dems to have a typical off-year turnout of 42 percent or so - that was the only way to overcome the 60,000 Dem voter registration advantage in PA-13 due to the chunk of NE Philly within it boundaries.


94 posted on 11/06/2010 6:59:26 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Paleo Conservative

Either Lowden or Tarkanian should have gotten out of the way for the other. Let this lesson not be forgotten: Reid was able to procure the candidate he most wanted to run against, and he was ultimately correct.

Very disappointing aspect of this election cycle to see that corrupt, nasty bastard go back to DC.

At least he and Pelosi will be the face of the Democratic Party for 2012, which is a plus for us.

The union ground game is becoming more and more dangerous - witness Toomey’s close call in PA. This problem is not going away.


95 posted on 11/06/2010 7:01:07 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: HarleyD
Agreed. The evidence of fraud is overwhelming, yet nothing is being done about it. This is at least the third article I've seen on the subject of “why Angle lost and how the polls got it wrong”. Sounds like something’s trying to be covered up to me.
96 posted on 11/06/2010 7:02:35 AM PDT by bushinohio
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To: 1010RD

Thanks for the tip, I will be sure to attend a course or two of theirs before the next election. I realize now how much I still don’t know about campaigns.


97 posted on 11/06/2010 7:05:39 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

You sacrificed your time and money.


98 posted on 11/06/2010 7:07:43 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion......the Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Kaslin
I worked on the Angle campaign very hard. Spent a lot of time on the phone and walking the streets.

1. This article is dead on. But is not the whole story.

2. Conservatives need to DROP the tampered voting machine issue. THERE IS NO PROOF IT WAS ANYTHING OTHER THAN VOTER ERROR.

3. There was voter intimidation no question. Stick to that.

Other things. Angle was not known in Vegas.

She had publicly chastised the Rep leaders who opposed her as RINOs (which they are) in public. They got payback.

She was for Yucca Mountain - very - not positive -big deal in Vegas.

She was opposed to all abortion. Again very big deal State wide. Reid made the campaign about her - she never made it about him. Which was my advice from the start.

99 posted on 11/06/2010 7:10:45 AM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (Playing by the rules only works if both sides do it!)
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To: CynicalBear

I’m sorry, but from what I have seen, the Angle campaign had these problems and more. Rove was a jerk for voicing his concerns about O’Donnell before the general election - in a manner that could only hurt her, and after it was too late to change the primary results anyway. It would have been far better if he had delivered his critiques as a post-mortem. But I don’t see a problem in this particular post-mortem of a campaign that had the upper leg on Reid and squandered it. And although Rove is a vastly diminished figure now to me, he does understand GOTV and logistics - he built the Bush 2004 GOTV machine, the one time the GOP has overpowered the Dems in that department.


100 posted on 11/06/2010 7:12:04 AM PDT by dirtboy
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