The Most Endangered Senate Seats in 2012

Pajamas Media ^ | November 9, 2010 | Adam Graham

[Vigilanteman]

Casey is a worthless mushmouth hanging on to the coattails of his dead father.

But that's only his most positive quality.

[GOPsterinMA]

“One of our illustrious Reps will be redistricted out(maybe two).”

We can only hope!

Interesting points about the Kennedys. I still would not rule them out completely - this is MA after all. If I was a betting man, I'd say The Coupe goes for it, maybe Steve Lynch.

Any way you slice it, I think Brown's done.

[PhilCollins]

I think that Senators Sherod Brown, Debbie Stabenow, Ben Nelson, and Bill Nelson will win. In 2006, they got 56%, 57%, 64%, and 61%, respectively. Conrad and Kohl will choose to retire, and Republicans will win. Tester, Webb, and McCaskill will lose. I agree that Scott Brown will lose. Republicans will have a net gain of four seats.

[MaggieCarta]

I want to see her GONE

I'll second that. I've heard those other names, too, and any of them would be A-Ok with me.

I think McCotter thought he had no other choice. It could come back to hurt him, I don't know. I've met him a couple of times (not since the bailout, though) I like him. I love watching him on Red Eye.

[Savage Beast]

Even I am not immune to denial. It's dangerous! It's hard not to be fooled by wishful thinking even when you're trying hard to be honest, but when--as with the Lefties--truth is not even a consideration, it's impossible to escape.

Okay. We'll have to put up with Graham until 2014. That means Snowe and Hatch will hit the pavement before he does.

[Savage Beast]

When can we kick out that Collins creep?

[Grams A]

Williams would be awesome. Most anyone but KBH!

[Polybius]

Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) shocked the political world by winning the election to replace Ted Kennedy. He immediately became the most vulnerable incumbent up for re-election in 2012. Brown has not pleased conservatives ...

Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) "has not pleased conservatives"?

In the Socialist People's Republic of Massachusetts?

And Ted Kennedy's Far Left agenda pleased us to no end?

This is like the trapped Chilean miners not being pleased with the food that they got through the 4 inch shaft and threatening a hunger strike because they insist on getting a whole 65 pound pig set down the four inch tube to them for a proper pig pickin'.

You know what can keep the Far Left in power in a country that is NOT Far Left?

This type of idiocy:

"OMG! Scott Brown is a ....gasp! ... RINO!!! Let's defeat him in the Massachusetts Republican primary with a true conservative! Then, if we really belive in fairies, Tinker Belle won't die and a true conservative can get elected Senator in the the Socialist People's Republic of Massachusetts!"

This is what America looks like, politically, state by state. The lighter the color the more liberal the state:

Massachusetts is the fourth most liberal states in the union. A true conservative cannot get elected as a Senator of Massachusetts any more than a Nancy Pelosi left-winger can get elected Senator of Mississippi.

If you are going to race mammals, you do not race a killer whale against a camel in the Sahara Desert and you do not race a giraffe against a dolphin in the Atlantic Ocean.

A Scott Brown moderate is as far right as you can possibly get into the Senate in the Socialist People's Republic of Massachusetts and, in spite of the fact that he is to the left of us on Free Republic, Scott Brown put the brakes on the runaway Obama agenda by replacing Ted Kennedy.

In the most optimistic surveys, conservatives number only 40% of all voters and are as rare as penguins in Hawaii in some states such as Massachusetts. The other 800 pound electoral gorilla in American politics are the Moderates that are almost as numerous as the conservatives.

In order to defeat the Far Left Obama agenda, whether we like it or not, simple arithmetic dictates that we need the Moderates on our side. The only place that you do not need Moderates are those dark green states on the map.

Conservative Candidate in Dark Green State = Shoo In (Jim DeMint)

Conservative Candidate in Mid Green State = Maybe yes (Marco Rubio) - Maybe no (Sharron Angle, Joe Miller)

Conservative Candidate in Light Green State = Splattered Bug on a Windshield (Christine O'Donnell)

In light green states, such as Delaware, if you insist on cramming a conservative candidate down a moderate-at-best electorate, you are going to be flattened like a bug in the 60% to 40% range, just like Christine O'Donnell was flattened in the 2008 Delaware Senate race by the liberal Joe Biden by a margin of 64.7% to 35.3% and was flattened yet again in the 2010 Delaware Senate race by the liberal Chris Coons by a margin of 56.6% to 40.0%.

You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes you might find
You get what you need

[dangus]

Brown will NOT lose. He has a $6 million warchest, and high approval ratings (55% approval to 18% disapproval).

[SwinneySwitch]

BTTT

[campaignPete R-CT]

No to Foley vs Lieberman.
McMahon for me. And I cannot see the DEM losing unless Lieberman is the GOP nominee. A 3-way race keeps the libs united and splits the GOP vote. The Indies in CT are GOP voters and many would go for JOE.

[BillyBoy]

>> I say let’s kick Lindsey Graham out of office first! <<

Lindsey Graham isn't up for re-election until 2014.

[Norman Bates]

Very good analysis. Brown may yet win; I wouldn’t count him out.

[AuH2ORepublican]

The problem is how to dissuade candidates from running (especially since they could ask “why doesn’t the other conservative drop out instead?”). The best way to avoid having a liberal sneak into a nomination with divided conservative opposition is if you require a run-off when no one gets 50%+1 (or maybe when no one gets 40%+1, which is what NC does). That way Snyder would have had to face off against Hoekstra (who finished second), and Schwarz would have had to face off against whichever conservative finished second in 2004 (it may have been Walberg, but maybe not).

[novemberslady]

(0bama Loving)" Webb needs to go, too!

yep

[AuH2ORepublican]

“I think that Senators Sherod Brown, Debbie Stabenow, Ben Nelson, and Bill Nelson will win. In 2006, they got 56%, 57%, 64%, and 61%, respectively.”

---

Yeah, but that was in 2006, which not only is 6 years prior to 2012 (several lifetimes in politics) but was a ridiculously Democrat year (and the Nelsons faced sub-par opposition). Remember, Blanche Lincoln and Russ Feingold got 56% and 55%, respectively, in 2004 (which was by no means a strongly Democrat year) but lost 57%-37% and 52%-47%, respectively, in 2010.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I hope you’re right, but I’m by no means optimistic about his chances. As popular as Scott Brown may be right now he will still have to face a first-tier Democrat in 2012, and in a presidential election year Democrat turnout will be huge. Had Perry and Hudek won House seats last week I wouold be more bullish, but the fact that neither the GOP gubernatorial candidate nor any of its congressional candidates managed to break 44% makes me think that Brown’s victory last January was a fluke.

[randita]

How much bearing do you think the presidential primary and resulting candidates will have on the Senate race results in 2012?

Obama will not generate the grassroots excitement he got in 2008. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the economic situation, he may have lost independent voters for good. Someone besides Obama may generate renewed excitement for Democrats and Indies, notoriously fickle, may decide the new person deserves a shot.

On the GOP side, it’s vital that the candidate be one that is supported by the Tea Party and like-minded conservatives. But it’s also vital that the person be one of impeccable integrity with a lengthy executive and leadership experience resume. No more Barack Hussein Obamas-m..m..m..

2014 will be another mid-term and like 2010 will probably be a referendum on the party in power which will hopefully be the GOP. So they better not blow it.

[dangus]

First tier? Like Deval Patrick? Martha Coakley again? Tim Murray? Bill Galvin? Joe DeNucci? Barney Frank? Nikki Tsongas? John Olver? Ed Markey? Am I missing someone?

Tim Cahill maybe, but I don’t see him winning the nom after running against Patrick.

[dangus]

I got it:

Rep. Mike Capuano. Not only is he a mobster, but he also already lost to Coakley. And get this: his wife’s maiden name is TEABAGGY.

No kidding.