S.Korea Begins Maritime Shooting Drills

KBS World ^

[jhpigott]

I believe there is a real ROK/US concern that any more live fire drills in the NLL could set off a shooting war. Don’t know how else to explain these repeated cancellations (other than to say that the ROK lacks fortitude)

Did you happen to catch Gates yesterday? Interesting that he chose to comment on the NORK situation from the deck of the USS Lincoln.

“Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned Monday that provocative actions by North Korea signal difficult and potentially dangerous times ahead, and he said the U.S. must work with China and others to bring stability to the peninsula.”

I wonder what kind of intel he is seeing that indicates “potentially dangerous times ahead”?

G has a new post out that is worth taking a look at.
http://www.informationdissemination.net/

[maquiladora]

Oh I believe there is a real fear that NK might do something crazy and use an exercise as an excuse to lash out again.

But what kind of a message is it giving NK when exercises are announced but then repeatedly called off at the last moments clearly due to fear of a NK reaction? I think it gives a message of indecision and a lack of nerve that will only make NK feel more secure and rewarded for their actions.

[jhpigott]

I agree the on again/off again drills along the NLL probably aren’t sending the right message to the NORKs.

However, I think, overall, the US/ROK/Japan message to China and the DPRK in the wake of this attack has been pretty good. Sure a heck of a lot better than running back to the 6 party talks and paying off Kim with rice like we have in the past.

I can agree that the indecision on the ROKs part vis-a-vi the live fire drills along the NLL may make the DPRK feel somewhat more “secure”, but in light of the other steps the US/ROK/Japan have took, I don’t see where the DPRK is being “rewarded” . . . except if you mean by “rewarded” that they have not been on the receiving end of some TLAMs or JDAMs.

[maquiladora]

By rewarded I mean this : For years South Korea carried out regular and routine live fire exercises close to the NLL. Since the NK attack however, all SK exercises in areas close to the border have been either delayed or canceled. In NK that will be viewed as something of a victory I think.

I agree with you that the reaction to the NK attack has been different from what we have seen in the past, but I’m not convinced yet that there is an actual plan that goes beyond just holding naval exercies and not re-starting the six party talks just yet. Hopefully there is a plan and we are not just playing for time while we hope China puts pressure on NK to make radical changes.

I think the problem is that SK had a chance to hit back at NK in a justified way that would be limited yet harsh enough to make them really reconsider provocative actions in the future. But what happened, either out of weakness or poor ROE/communication, was a very poor military responsive.
Too much time has passed now for SK to hit back at NK and we are in a sort of limbo situation with lots of tough talk and naval drills to try and make up for that.