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Is Rudy Giuliani a 2012 dark horse?
TheHill.com ^ | 12/22/10 | Christian Heinze

Posted on 12/22/2010 7:09:21 AM PST by StatenIsland

As a 2008 primary front-runner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani tanked. But as a 2012 dark horse, he could do surprisingly well.

It’s not because Giuliani has shifted; it’s because the Republican Party has. The 2010 election was less about social conservatism than it was fiscal conservatism, and that aligns with Giuliani’s socially moderate and fiscally conservative ideology.

There is another promising wind of change blowing Giuliani’s way, one that’s less ideological. This isn’t the era of kinder, gentler politicians. This is the age of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — three politicians whose appeal lives, partly, in their aggressive rhetoric.

But, according to Giuliani, he started the political fad. When explaining Christie’s appeal to the New York Post, Giuliani said: “What’s making him popular is that he’s not afraid to be called a bully. I used to be proud to be called a bully, and Christie would call me and tell me, ‘I’m going to do it just the way you did.' "

Thus, both the national ideology and aesthetics of these political times are more favorable to Giuliani than, perhaps, at any time in his political career.

So what’s he been up to?

Leg work:

While Giuliani maintained his visibility at a national level this year through frequent appearances on cable political shows, he also showed the GOP that he was willing to do the less glamorous work of crossing the country on behalf of Republican candidates.

In the run-up to the midterm elections, Giuliani made high-profile visits on behalf of Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey, Illinois gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady, Illinois senatorial candidate Mark Kirk, West Virginia senatorial candidate John Raese and many more, garnering significant media attention along the way.

Skeptics often claim that Giuliani’s political activity is simply good business, since it keeps him relevant. For example, Auburn University shelled out $85,000 earlier this year for a Giuliani speech on leadership — an amount that might be less if he weren’t flirting with a bid. But that obscures the fact that his success, financially, is a good sign of his continuing appeal, politically.

Rhetoric:

The question for any presidential aspirant is whether he or she is building a broad case for the presidency. At the very least, Giuliani has built a broad one against the current president, slamming Barack Obama on everything from foreign policy to being, well, too New York.

Earlier this year, he questioned the president’s philosophical approach to foreign policy, not to mention his actual record, which he’s frequently criticized on missile defense, terrorism and Middle East relationships.

“President Obama thinks we can all hold hands, sing songs and have peace symbols. North Korea and Iran are not singing along with the president.”

And while Gingrich literally wrote a book, christening the Obama administration a “secular-socialist machine,” Giuliani has been similarly critical of the president’s economic policy, telling conservative bloggers that Obama is trying to turn the United States into a “European social democracy.”

Then there’s the ironic and primary-friendly charge that Obama has too much of the mayor’s hometown blood in him.

“The president may be suffering … from the inability to see the rest of America from having a warped view in New York,” Giuliani told ABC’s “The View” last month.

Fire in the belly:

Giuliani has refused several times this year to close the door on a bid. Most recently, he told The Wall Street Journal that it’s been difficult to give up the dream.

“It’s always in your mind when you’ve done something like this,” he said.

And it’s possible that his poor showing in 2008 hasn’t done much to diminish his confidence in another bid. Earlier this year, Giuliani told The Washington Post that his failure could have been as simple as bad timing.

“You know, I was conflicted about running when I did ... I don’t think any Republican could have won in 2008,” he said.

That being said, if he did do it again, it’s not likely he’d take any chances and stake the race on Florida, as he did in 2008.

“If you’re going to run for president and get nominated, you better win Iowa [or] New Hampshire. By then, it’s probably over. If it isn’t over by then, it’s over by South Carolina,” he told the Post.

What lies ahead:

In the end, it’s perhaps smartest to appeal to a former New York state representative, Guy Molinari, who once told reporters of Giuliani: “Rudy is Rudy. Rudy is either going to run or not based on how he feels. He’s not a guy who looks at statistics and worries about the fact that ... maybe he could win, maybe he can’t win.”

And that makes him a wildcard, a dark horse — and a worthy figure to watch in 2012.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012gopprimary; darkhorsesass; dnc4fruityrudy; giuliani; liberals; rino; rinos4obama; rinosgonewild; rudy; rudy2012; rudybotshere; rudymcromney; thefloridastrategy; trialballoon; wishfulthinking; working4obama
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To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
Independent voters and a large portion of tea partiers are LESS social conservative.

Free Republic is increasingly becoming a site which represents the 20-25% percent of the electorate which is hardline, no compromises social conservative.

And of course it's the owner's prerogative to keep it that way.

But that doesn't make hardline social conservatism a 51% winner on the national scale.

61 posted on 12/23/2010 8:29:30 AM PST by Notary Sojac ("Goldman Sachs" is to "US economy" as "lamprey" is to "lake trout".)
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To: Notary Sojac

Agreed. That is basically what I was trying to say...I think both fiscal and social conservatives both agree that the same ole same ole vote the better of the two evils is SO OLD and Americans are fed up! This is why I believe no matter how much primary infighting happens (the republicans had best wake up BTW. I am not a republican because most republicans are PC dems in disguise. I am a registered independent voter.) Someone will win in 2012 that will truly turn this country around come hell or high water.


62 posted on 12/23/2010 8:37:01 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: StatenIsland

Better than Huckleberry and Romney , but thats about it.


63 posted on 12/23/2010 8:46:47 AM PST by Nonstatist
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To: Seeing More Clearly Now; Reagan Man; Jim Robinson
It ain't about agreeing with me. It's about agreeing with the site owner. He allows latitude on a lot of subjects, but promoting a pro-abort gun-grabbing authoritarian control freak apparently isn't one of them.

Pinging Jim because we're talking about him, not to try and call in a zot. Rudy has appeal to a lot of people because of his law and order bona fides, but that usually fades when they find out the underlying details about Rudy's battle against basic rights such as the right to life and self-defense. I hope you will take the time to read about the awards from abortion groups that Rudy has gotten and Rudy's attempts to stifle 2nd Amendmend rights, just for starters, before you decide he is a good choice for conservatives.

64 posted on 12/23/2010 8:55:06 AM PST by dirtboy
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To: StatenIsland

Here is a list of POTUS candidates I googled. I don’t think Rudy even made the list.

http://2012.republican-candidates.org/


65 posted on 12/23/2010 8:58:25 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Jim Robinson

Ping


66 posted on 12/23/2010 9:00:17 AM PST by Manic_Episode (Some mornings, it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps...)
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To: magritte
...the author makes an interesting point about the lessening of influence of social conservatives.

You miss a key aspect of that. It's one thing to be like McDonnell from Virginia who did not actively campaign on social issues, sticking instead to Tea Party basics.

It's another entirely to be like Rudy who has actively promoted abortion interests (I refuse to call it abortion rights) and who has fought against basic 2nd Amendment rights.

Socons and 2nd Amendment proponents may vote for the likes of McDonnell, but not for someone like Rudy who has actively and aggressively worked against their interests in the past. Downplaying socon issues is vastly different from trashing them.

67 posted on 12/23/2010 9:01:01 AM PST by dirtboy
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To: nagdt
You must've been hiding during the great purge a few years back.
68 posted on 12/23/2010 9:06:24 AM PST by Manic_Episode (Some mornings, it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps...)
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To: roostercogburn

Fail.


69 posted on 12/23/2010 9:08:07 AM PST by Manic_Episode (Some mornings, it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps...)
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To: Manic_Episode

I wish you would put all the energy you have in calling the owner of the site like you are in the sixth grade; into something else.


70 posted on 12/23/2010 9:11:43 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: NoRedTape

Sean blows Rudy, Newt and Myth. He always has these NO socalists on his show.


71 posted on 12/23/2010 9:14:50 AM PST by stockpirate (Sen. Mitch McConnel (R) has betrayed the Nov. 2, 2010 voters w/his tax bill!)
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To: Liz
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Thanks anyway, Rudy RINO.
If they want four additional years for Obambi, the GOP will nominate Rudy.

72 posted on 12/23/2010 9:23:58 AM PST by vox_freedom (America is being tested as never before in its history. May God help us.)
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To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
"I wish you would put all the energy you have in calling the owner of the site like you are in the sixth grade; into something else."

====================================

I had gotten in the face of 5 or 6 people who got the zot on the great purge thread long before that thread and long before it was fashionable.

I find this way actually saves energy.

73 posted on 12/23/2010 9:25:07 AM PST by Manic_Episode (Some mornings, it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps...)
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To: dirtboy
Downplaying socon issues is vastly different from trashing them.

That's as may be, and I agree with you, but when Mitch Daniels suggested that the socon issues be downplayed for a while, many here at FR went "absolutely Rudy" on him.

74 posted on 12/23/2010 9:27:34 AM PST by Notary Sojac (Imagine the parade to celebrate victory in the WoT. What security measures would we need??)
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To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
IMO there are only two serious candidates I can't possibly support for POTUS. Both Huck and Mitt are far too statist for my liking. I don't see Rudy as a serious candidate, but he falls into that same category.

Every other potential GOP candidate is acceptable to me. Unlike some Freepers, who see a RINO under every suit (or blouse)....

75 posted on 12/23/2010 9:33:04 AM PST by Notary Sojac (Imagine the parade to celebrate victory in the WoT. What security measures would we need??)
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To: Notary Sojac

Daniels was stupid about how he went about it, quite frankly.


76 posted on 12/23/2010 9:33:22 AM PST by dirtboy
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To: StatenIsland

Rudy was acceptable where he was, when he was mayor. I have no quarrel with that, if NYC selected him and he stays there. But NY isn’t America.

Same with Christie; that’s between him and Jersey.

It’s like Merkel being leader of Germany, it’s just not my concern, and anyway they don’t seem to be that bad in the niche they’re in.

But when a pro-abort, anti-gun guy wants to lead America, I have a serious quarrel with that.


77 posted on 12/23/2010 9:55:19 AM PST by 668 - Neighbor of the Beast (Merry Christmas!)
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To: StatenIsland

If you want to see how a pro-abortion Republican fares against an Obama re-election campaign, take a look at how Charlie Baker did against Deval Patrick.


78 posted on 12/23/2010 10:03:55 AM PST by cmj328
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To: StatenIsland

No more RINOS! Rudy Giuliani should run against Michael Bloomberg for NYC Mayor! It’s a shame that Rudy won’t do this, because, BTW, Rudy and Michael are friends (another reason to not support Rudy Giuliani for POTUS, ever!).


79 posted on 12/23/2010 10:15:17 AM PST by johnthebaptistmoore (If leftist legislation that's already in place really can't be ended by non-leftists, then what?)
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To: StatenIsland

Sounds like wishful thinking on the part of a liberal journalist. The candidacy of any candidate in favor of abortion rights in the Republican party is DOA.


80 posted on 12/23/2010 10:32:57 AM PST by Ol' Sparky (Liberal Republicans are the greater of two evils)
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