Posted on 12/28/2010 1:43:14 PM PST by Moseley
Democrats were apparently under-represented in Delaware’s US Senate race on November 2, 2010, according to CNN exit polls taken on election night.
Voter registration for Delaware’s 2010 election totaled
Democrats: 47 %.
Republicans: 29.4%.
“Other” & Independents: 23.5%
(Voter registration closed on October 9, 2010. Registration totals are as of October 21, 2010.)
http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml
However, actual voter turn out according to CNN’s exit poll was:
Democrats: 44%.
Republicans: 30%.
“Other” & Independents: 27%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=DES01p1
Thus Democrats were under-represented among the actual voters who turned out in the November 2 election.
Only 44% of actual voters were Democrats although 47% of all registered voters are Democrats. Republicans comprised 30% of actual voters while being only 29.4% of registered voters. (Because Democrat registration surged 11.2% between 2008 and 2010, a full 11.2% of Democrat registered voters are recently-registered and probably highly motivated to vote after recently registering.)
If CNN’s exit poll data is accurate, the theory that Christine O’Donnell energized Democrats to turn out and vote – harming Delaware’s “down ballot” races – is clearly false.
Democrats actually voted in numbers significantly less than their proportion among registered voters by 44% to 47%. Republicans voted in a slightly higher proportion than their voter registration by 30% to 29.4%. Therefore, Christine O’Donnell’s presence on the November 2 ballot clearly did not drive Democrats to vote.
Two competing theories are being disputed about the US Senate race between Republican Christine O’Donnell and Democrat Chris Coons. A major debate – perhaps even a healthy debate – is raging within the Republican Party of Delaware about the future of Republicans after the November 2, 2010.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
That stupid add where she said, “I’m not a witch”... What kind of response was that... IMO, wimpy, feel good, please like me response. Not what resonates with people who know what needs to be done in Washington.
No. She lost because of media attacks, Karl Rove attacks, and Delaware State Republican Party attacks.
The media managed to persuade a lot of voters that “even Republicans” thought she was a kook. Those Republicans in Name Only all being left-wingers and pork-grubbing, professional hacks.
I don’t no how many times it needs to be said that members of the party are welcome to take sides during the primary, but that when the primary is over they should either fall behind the candidate or shut up. They smashed this rule to pieces.
Most blame Karl Rove. If he can control elections certainly he is the most powerful politician in the country. I don’t think for a minute I would have any use for his opinion on who I vote for, but apparently many here thinks he has that ability to convince people to vote for who he wants or doesn’t want.
Rove has to take a big part of the blame for this defeat because she lost because of lack of republican support. Frankly, over the last 6 months it's shocking how many Republicans showed how badly they need to be retired next election cycle.
100% right on the mark.
Well said. People on our side sometimes bemoan our ‘bad’ or ‘weak’ candidates. Well if our candidates had the full-throated 24/7 MSM support the other side enjoys they’d look like *great* candidates—and if their side had the relentless attacks ours endure, their candidates would would ghastly.
I totally agree. Some of the posts remind me of the left ranting about “all powerful, evil, mastermind” Karl Rove during the Bush years. Does anyone, anywhere really care about Karl Rove’s opinion (outside his family and perhaps close friends)? Whenever I see or hear Rove, I think of The Wizard of Oz when the curtain is pulled back, and the tiny little man is revealed.
It’s very simple. Delaware voters had previously rejected COD, and they rejected her again.
Certainly not anymore.
“...but apparently many here thinks he has that ability to convince people to vote for who he wants or doesn’t want.”
Do you really believe that Rove had minimal impact on the election? Are you aware of the childish temper tantrum he put on shortly after the primary? You think a person in his position saying what he said at the time he said it did not do O’Donnell any political damage?
Either you’re shilling for Rove-boy or you need to do some extra reading.
Karl Rove’s friends and “foes” are giving a lot of credit to Karl Rove.
He doesn’t deserve the credit.
The biggest takeaway based on the exit poll numbers is that
Obama motivated young black women to vote for the Democrat candidate. Black women were 14% of the voters.
So, Dems were 44% instead of 47%. Reps were 30% instead of 29%.
For weeks, all across the country, we were talking about a
enthusiasm gap, where Republicans voted and Democrats didn’t. We did not see this enthusiasm gap in Delaware.
Democrats were down a little in DE. Republicans were up a little in DE.
It had very little to do with Karl Rove. Karl Rove would like you to think he was powerful in the DE race. He was not. Obama was. Obama got the black women to the polls. And that was the biggest difference.
Christine won among whites. But there are a lot of blacks in DE. Instead of not voting, they definitely did vote and they voted for Coons. 95% of nonwhite Dems voted for Coons.
The 3 most important things in the DE race.
1) Obama helped turnout.
2) The DE Gop did not help with GOTV
3) Castle did not endorse.
Rove and the neocons were not an important factor, no matter how much they say they were.
It’s possible that if 1) Obama stayed home 2) the DE Gop helped with GOTV and 3) Castle did endorse and helped Christine, that the neocon negativity could’ve swung the race to Coons if the race was close. But the race was not close, and the numbers of people who actually like Karl Rove and the neocons in DE is a lot smaller than Karl Rove and his buddies would like you to think.
If you are going to take the party back from the establishment hacks, then by definition you are going to run less experienced people against wizened old veterans. Which means you will win some and you will lose some; its the nature of it.
And you are going to find your less-experienced candidate under attack by the party elite; thats guaranteed, since the elite are exactly the people you are trying to unseat.
I consider Delaware to be a win, in that we got rid of Castle. That was job one. ODonnell will live to fight another day. I’m not going to buy in on the elite’s spin about how running against Castle was a mistake; getting rid of guys like him (and exposing guys like Rove) is a large part of what we have to do to take this party back... from guys like Castle and Rove.
Your point is good. To me her decision simply meant she hadn’t been through the ringer enough to know when she’s being had. I’m sure this wised and toughened her up enough to know the feel good, treat me nice approach doesn’t work. I hope she makes another run.
just be glad she lost, she served her purpose and that was to not allow another Repub like Castle to join Collins and Snowe on the east coast Rockerfeller wing.
That said she would of been a disaster on the national level, for the umteempth time we need good candiadates that further conservatism like Rubio not ones like O’Donnell that cannot further intelligent conservatism.
O’Donnell lost because O’bummer and his minions brought in people from out of state to vote Democrat, under the cover of fraudulent voter registrations by ACORN and others. There’s no WAY Delaware gained that many Dems in a year.
What a remarkably stupid article.
O’Donnell lost the overall race by 16%.
The CNN Exit poll did find that 16% of Republicans voted for Coons.
HOWEVER, only 30% of those voting were Republicans;
Therefore, if EVERY Republican had voted for O’Donnell, she would have still lost by 11%.
When someone loses a race by 16%, and they had plenty of campaign cash, the reason they lost is - they couldn’t win.
I’d like to hear what the people who were here for Christine prior to the election have to say about this.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2620231/posts
this thread was posted the day after the election and is a long thread about why Christine lost, and includes many posts from people who were paying attention prior to the election.
It’s certainly not all about Rove and the neocons.
But Demonrat insiders still think that having 'Mickey Mouse' vote in 17 precincts is a tough sell. But they would have pulled out that stop if needed. We need to train and vet candidates early - figure out who can win. Taking over some of the media would also help.
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