Posted on 12/28/2010 1:43:14 PM PST by Moseley
Democrats were apparently under-represented in Delaware’s US Senate race on November 2, 2010, according to CNN exit polls taken on election night.
Voter registration for Delaware’s 2010 election totaled
Democrats: 47 %.
Republicans: 29.4%.
“Other” & Independents: 23.5%
(Voter registration closed on October 9, 2010. Registration totals are as of October 21, 2010.)
http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml
However, actual voter turn out according to CNN’s exit poll was:
Democrats: 44%.
Republicans: 30%.
“Other” & Independents: 27%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=DES01p1
Thus Democrats were under-represented among the actual voters who turned out in the November 2 election.
Only 44% of actual voters were Democrats although 47% of all registered voters are Democrats. Republicans comprised 30% of actual voters while being only 29.4% of registered voters. (Because Democrat registration surged 11.2% between 2008 and 2010, a full 11.2% of Democrat registered voters are recently-registered and probably highly motivated to vote after recently registering.)
If CNN’s exit poll data is accurate, the theory that Christine O’Donnell energized Democrats to turn out and vote – harming Delaware’s “down ballot” races – is clearly false.
Democrats actually voted in numbers significantly less than their proportion among registered voters by 44% to 47%. Republicans voted in a slightly higher proportion than their voter registration by 30% to 29.4%. Therefore, Christine O’Donnell’s presence on the November 2 ballot clearly did not drive Democrats to vote.
Two competing theories are being disputed about the US Senate race between Republican Christine O’Donnell and Democrat Chris Coons. A major debate – perhaps even a healthy debate – is raging within the Republican Party of Delaware about the future of Republicans after the November 2, 2010.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
“Therefore, Christine O’Donnell’s presence on the November 2 ballot clearly did not drive Democrats to vote.”
Well if that is true, then it is also true that Coons “clearly did not drive Democrats to vote”, because they voted in numbers below their number of registered voters. And, in the first place, wouldn’t it have been Coons JOB to “drive Democrats to vote”; not O’Donnells???
This is an article that tries to build a mountain out of a mole hill.
The REDSTATE blogger wants to convince us that its all D’Donnells fault because only 82% of GOPers, not 100%, voted for O’Donnell, in a state where her Liberal RINO primary opponent - Castle - has never been elected because of the GOP vote, but because he usually got so many Liberal Dim votes; in a state where they dominate among the 47% registered as Dims and the nearly 30% registered as independents.
“Therefore, the exit poll data shows that Republican defections to vote for the Democrat Coons were responsible for the Republican Party losing the US Senate seat from Delaware.”
This is bogus. For it to be true 100% of the GOPers would have, in an alternate universe, voted for Castle. But, the primary results, and the general preferences, indicate that Castle would have gotten less GOP votes than O’Donnell got, in the general election, with more than “18%” of GOPers staying home, instead of voting for the “other Liberal” - Castle.
All these arguments are a waste of time.
Coons won in an overwhelmingly Liberal-Left state because to the majority of voters he was neither the antithesis of their majority sentiments, nor was he the pretend RINO Liberal, Castle. To the majority (delusional Liberal majority) Coons was the “real deal” - all the way through the campaign.
The GOP did not loose because of O’Donnell. They lost because it was never theirs to win, in Delaware.
While I agree with the general thrust of your post, the CNN exit poll results pretty show that Castle probably would have won if he'd been the nominee; with 44% of those in the exit poll saying they would have voted for Castle, 42% for Coons, and 12% saying they wouldn't have voted.
Once anybody with any ties to the GOP started attacking Christine, it was all over for her. The GOP attacking the GOP helps the Democrats, ALWAYS, and it creates a ton of political damage towards the entire GOP, too!
Can you assert with a straight face that attacks from the GOP leadership changed the votes of more than 16% of the electorate in Delaware?
Incorrect math. O’Donnell held 84-16 edge with Republicans. That is a net 68%. If she had held 100-0 (impossible), the difference would be 30% x 32% = 9.6%, and she would have lost by 6.4%.
She didn’t spend her campaign cash wisely. But once Castle and Rove attacked her after the primary, O’Donnell was toast. If Castle and the Delaware establishment had backed her all the way, it would have been within 5%, either way. But they didn’t.
Analyze, and use that knowledge for the next time. In 2012, there will be a next time. Judging by housing prices recently, the economy is still in trouble. We have to be as patient and as persistent as the enemy.
Thanks for bringing that up (about Fred Davis angle).
She still should have told him “NO EFFING WAY”.
You can have all the geniuses around you, but ultimately YOU have to make the choices.
I can’t find ANYONE who thought that was the BEST ad possible in response to the stupid accusations at that point in time.
The thing that killed me about the stupid ad was, Christine was supposed to be ‘responding’ in a serious way about “I’m not a witch”, and she’s put in a ‘dark bluish’ background, with a black dark toned hair comb - basically telling everyone “I’m no witch (but lookeeee here, don’t I look like one?).
That’s 44% for Castle when Castle isn’t being attacked. It’s a fairly good guess to think that Coons would’ve attacked Castle if Castle was running. Castle’s numbers would’ve dropped if he was the actual candidate.
No Christine is not a high church member, but Karl Rove is!
Let me start with you.
That witch ad was a HUGE mistake. It’s certainly not why she lost, but it didn’t help.
O’Donnell’s campaign manager was the fellow who managed the campaign of NY’s Scuzzifava challenger. This is a guy who needs to go looking for different kind of work.
The notion was to try and be playful with the concept, while alternatively presenting O’Donnell as somber and serious.
All if ended up doing was keeping that ridiculous witch controversy front and center and keeping O’Donnell as the stuff of folly and silliness.
I’d rate that commercial as one of the top ten dumbest things of the year 2010.
Christine lost for a simple reason, more Delaware voters chose her opponent.
I will remind, once again as I do endlessly, that there was, at the same time, another contender for Delaware’s one and only Representative in the House, to replace Mike Castle in fact, who was running for the Senate.
This fellow, a very serious guy who ran a great campaign, not witch commercials, LOST BY THE EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE AS O’DONNELL!
His name was Glen Urquhart and both he and O’Donnell lost by a margin of 14%.
They both lost because Newcastle county, Delaware’s largest and most populace area, has Democrats almost 3 to 1 over the more conservative Kent and Sussex downstate areas.
Wilmington is extremely liberal, filled with union types, the welfare gang almost as big as Philadelphia...nearby by the way, and an enclave of Blue Blood GOP Ruling Class that didn’t support O’Donnell. Matter of fact, it’s where Mike Castle lives.
It’s true the Blue Blood Ruling Class GOP here in Delaware actively worked AGAINST O’Donnell but I’d not argue that this alone cost O’Donnell and Urquhart the race. The only way Castle won general elections all these years is WITH a huge amount of help from the Democrats. Delaware is one weird type of state. The very first tiime I stopped at the Georgetown GOP office, the lady at the desk told me, and I quote, “Democrats/Republicans...they’re all pretty much the same.”
I’d argue that perhaps the percentage of loss would have been much lower without the Delware GOP Blue Blood Ruling Class working AGAINST O’Donnell and Urquhart but I think they would have lost without that coalition of Dems and Repubs that got Biden and Castle elected for yay these many years.
Don’t forget, please, that Delaware’s GOP Chair, the fine, fine Tom Ross, said publicly, and I quote, that “O’Donnell couldn’t win Dog catcher.”
to those of you defending this guy, I’d suggest, softly, that even if Ross didn’t like O’Donnell at the least he COULD HAVE SAID NOTHING.
For now, we’re working like the dickens to have Ross officially censured cause you can argue and type at me all night but there’s nothing right by this.
It ain’t easy cause the Dems and the Repubs...hey, not much difference.
It could be, I dunno, that Sussex county, an area to the right of Atilla the Hun, just might have to accept this.
OR, as I intend to work on next year, overhaul that Blue Blood Ruling Class GOP and then get those cooperative Dems to work together to elect a candidate WE LIKE.
I’m willing to acknowledge that we might to go a bit more moderate than an Urquhart/O’Donnell but you’ll have to torture me all night to have me buy that we should have to live with the likes of Mike Castle who voted for Cap and Trade, AGAINST the Iraq surge, FOR the Dream act, and on and on and on......do NOT tell me this and stop justifying Castle’s existance.
Sure we got Coons the communist but every day I wake and breathe the clean fresh air of Delaware cause my enemy is my enemy RIGHT UP FRONT, not the guy supposed to be on my side.
The RINOS need to buck up and admit they pushed it too far and Castle was just one casualty of a bad strategy.
Thanks. Makes a lot of sense.
It’s good to hear from someone who knows what went on in DE.
It’s also important to note that the blue blood GOP ruling class is not the same thing as Karl Rove. People want to pretend that Karl Rove is super important in DE. He really isn’t. Castle and Ross and the blue bloods, country club Republicans, are important. 31% of the voters who had a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney voted for Coons. Only 9% of the voters who had a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin voted for Coons.
Good post, thanks.
So her 17 point beating was because of Rove and the Republican party, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans by 17%?
She might have lost 3-4 points from Rove and the Republican party, but the VAST majority of her loss was from being Christine O’Donnell...
I don’t believe the exit polls or the Delaware people than answered that way; I don’t believe their “what if” answer reflects what they would have done in the real world.
Coons was the “real deal”, Castle was the pretender who got-along to get-along (and win Dim votes) and O’Donnell was the outsider.
I don’t think the REAL majority vote was ever anyone’s but Coons.
A good place to start. The last time I heard that I was in Texas. I like it.
You keep posting that stuff about the high church, do you have a Protestant/Catholic vote breakdown for Delaware?
Think of certain classes of Lutherans and Epi-Scopals.
I'm being very careful in my use of this term since it does not ever apply to Catholics of any kind ~ just usually the guys who look down their noses at "emotional" folks.
Karl Rove is pretty typical of the bunch though you can actually find them even in groups like the Reverend Wright's type of Church of Christ. In fact Obama's wife was a Queen Bee over there, and if she was in almost any sort of church she'd try that trick anyway ~ probably most effectively as an Epi-Scopal.
The High Church folks are a penance Protestants pay for not being particular enough about the quality of the order of the service.
My point was that you keep posting about them and their vote in Delaware, I would like to see the numbers of the Protestant/Catholic vote in Delaware that you are basing the claims on, that you keep posting.
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