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NASA’s Sunspot Prediction Roller Coaster
NASA’s Sunspot Prediction Roller Coaster [Missing Sunspots] ^ | 27 December 2010 | Ira Glickstein

Posted on 12/31/2010 2:26:42 PM PST by Fractal Trader

Santa brought us a new Sunspot prediction to be added to NASA’s incredibly high series of at least five ill-fated predictions starting in 2006. NASA’s latest peak Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle #24 (SC24) is down 60% from their original, but it still seems a bit too high, judging by David Archibald’s recent WUWT posting that analogizes SC24 and SC25 to SC5 and SC6 which peaked around 50, during the cold period (Dalton minimum) of the early 1800′s.

According to Yogi Berra “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Team leader Dr. Mausumi Dikpati of NASA’s National Center for Atmospheric Research and Solar physicist Dr. David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center have most likely learned that lesson well, having predicted, back in March 2006, that SC24 would start by the end of 2006 or early 2007 and would peak 30% to 50% higher than SC23, which would yield counts of 156 to 180. The latest prediction is 64 (I love their precision :^) but I predict it will have to be reduced further, kind of like an after-Christmas sale :^)

[NOTE added 28 Dec 9:45PM. See clarification comment by: John from CA, December 28, 2010 at 1:44 pm. I was mistaken in conflating NASA with NOAA in the graphic and discussion, wrongly assuming they coordinated their Sunspot predictions. The base chart, as labeled, is from NOAA but the predictions are from Dikpati and/or Hathaway at NASA, but later ones, on a NASA website, may be personal, not official. Thanks John from CA and sorry for my ignorance of government organization. Ira] My graphic traces the downward progression of NASA Sunspot predictions, superimposed over NASA’s NOAA’s latest chart of actual Sunspot Numbers. SC23 is shown from its peak in 2000 to its demise in 2009, along with the rise of SC24 up to the latest November 2010 data. The red hoop, peaking at 90, is left over from their previous prediction and should be replaced by their new prediction in January. [Click graphic for larger version].

As indicated, SC23 peaked at a count of 120 around January 2000. It is instructive to read NASA’s March 2006 predictions (and somewhat humorous until you realize we paid for it). Some direct quotes [emphasis added]:

“The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one,” [Dikpati] says… Dikpati’s prediction is unprecedented. In nearly-two centuries since the 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered, scientists have struggled to predict the size of future maxima—and failed. Solar maxima can be intense, as in 1958, or barely detectable, as in 1805, obeying no obvious pattern.

The key to the mystery, Dikpati realized years ago, is a conveyor belt on the sun…

Hathaway … explains: “First, remember what sunspots are–tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun’s inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a ‘corpse’ of weak magnetic fields.”…

“The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The ‘corpses’ are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun’s magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface.” Presto—new sunspots!

All this happens with massive slowness. “It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop,” says Hathaway. The speed varies “anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast).”

When the belt is turning “fast,” it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: “The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996,” says Hathaway. “Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011.“

Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati’s forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.

“History shows that big sunspot cycles ‘ramp up’ faster than small ones,” he says. “I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011.”

Who’s right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.

Did Dikpati and Hathaway honestly believed they had cracked the Sunspot code that had eluded science for two centuries? In hindsight, we all know they were wrong in their heady predictions of a “doozy”. (A doozy, according to Webster is “an extraordinary one of its kind”. NASA expected SC24 to be extraordinarily intense. But it is shaping up to be extraordinarily weak, so they at least get credit for using the correct word :^)

But, were they being honest? Well, Hathaway had long been aware of the relationship between Sunspot counts and climate, writing:

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715. … This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the ‘Little Ice Age’ when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.

Is it possible that their prediction was skewed to the high side by the prevalent opinion, in the Inconvenient Truth year of 2006, that Global Warming was “settled science”. Could it be that they felt pressured to please their colleagues and superiors by predicting a Sunspot doozy that would presage a doozy of a warm spell?

It seems to me that NASA has a long history of delayed Sunspot predictions, particularly when the trend was downward. They seem to have waited until the actual counts forced them to do so.

Have a look at the graphic. SC23 SC24 [thanks Steeptown December 27, 2010 at 11:37 pm] was supposed to start by early 2007, but it did not. Yet, it took them until October 2008 to revise their prediction of a later start and lower peak (137) and then they dropped it further in January 2009 (predicting a peak of 104 to occur in early 2012).

I am not any kind of expert on Sunspots, yet it was clear to me, nearly two years ago, that 104 was way too high so I predicted a peak of 80 and moved the date of that peak to mid-2013. NASA eventually reduced their peak to 90, and just this month down to 64, and they moved the peak date to mid-2013. My latest prediction is 60, to occur in early 2014, but I believe I may still be a bit too high.

With apologies to Pete Seeger:

Where have all the sunspots gone? NA-SA search-ing, Where have all the sunspots go-ne? NASA don’t know. Where have all the sunspots gone? Global Cooling, anyone? Will NASA ever learn? Will NA-SA ev-er learn?

Where has all the carbon gone? Green-house gas-es, Where has all the carbon go-ne? Come down as snow! Where has all the carbon gone? Heating houses, everyone, Will NASA ever learn? Will NA-SA ev-er learn?

Where has Global Warming gone? Point not tip-ping, Where has Global Warming go-ne? Its gonna slow. Where has Global Warming gone? Normal seasons of the Sun, Will NASA ever learn? Will NA-SA ev-er learn?


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 1645; 1715; agw; climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; littleiceage; nasa; sol; solarcycles; sunspots
NASA Sunspot predictions from 2006 t0 2010. Ira Glickstein
1 posted on 12/31/2010 2:26:43 PM PST by Fractal Trader
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To: steelyourfaith

I tried to see if this had been posted with the title “Sunspots”, but that came back blank on a title search! This references a technical article, but I posted this for the commentary.


2 posted on 12/31/2010 2:28:33 PM PST by Fractal Trader
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To: Fractal Trader

NASA is deep into the cult of global warming, and that isn’t going to happen without lots of activity on the sun. NASA’s sun spot predictions are wishful thinking.


3 posted on 12/31/2010 2:38:01 PM PST by pallis
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To: KevinDavis; SunkenCiv

Ping


4 posted on 12/31/2010 2:38:01 PM PST by BenLurkin (This post is not a statement of fact. It is merely a personal opinion -- or humor -- or both)
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To: Fractal Trader

I love God’s sense of humor smashing the Earth Worshipers with no more effort than the wind lifts a dandelion seed.


5 posted on 12/31/2010 2:39:09 PM PST by dila813
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To: Fractal Trader

My father was a big believer in the sun spot cycle affecting weather. Things have been proving him right.


6 posted on 12/31/2010 2:41:49 PM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: steelyourfaith

Long time gassing ping.


7 posted on 12/31/2010 2:43:13 PM PST by decimon
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To: dila813

You are exactly right,, God has a wonderful sense of irony.


8 posted on 12/31/2010 2:50:51 PM PST by gcraig (Freedom isn't free)
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To: pallis

nasa has to sub-contract getting their back ends cleaned.

LLS


9 posted on 12/31/2010 2:53:54 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than a dim to enter the kingdom of GOD!)
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To: Fractal Trader
The NASA guys had it in their heads that GW was very real so they felt confident that Sunspots would make it so.

Then, the new Cycle 24 DIDN'T happen on schedule ~ not even near it. I remember them checking to see if maybe they hadn't interpreted the magnetic orientation in error.

Well, end of that settled science. Sunspots are way down; England is freezing; Europe is disappearing behind a wall of endless winter, and our alternative "count" trick ~ the number of states in which it snows on any given day ~ is still high. It's more often 38 than it is 20, and it's sure not like the 5s and 10s we've had a decade ago.

Call that the MUAWIYAH COUNT ~ it's lookin' bad guys.

Oh, you can't do that for Canada. It's almost always snowing somewhere this winter, last winter, the winter before ~

10 posted on 12/31/2010 3:15:06 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: Fractal Trader

I sit here listening to the 17M band die as the sun sets. I see the sunspot count at 24 and the SFI at 81, where it has been for what seems like months and wonder if even a count of 64 at the maximum is optimistic...


11 posted on 12/31/2010 3:26:34 PM PST by Ohio Hermit (DX Is!)
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To: Fractal Trader; decimon; enough_idiocy; meyer; Normandy; Whenifhow; TenthAmendmentChampion; ...
Thanx Fractal Trader & decimon !

 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

12 posted on 12/31/2010 3:41:26 PM PST by steelyourfaith (ObamaCare Death Panels: a Final Solution to the looming Social Security crisis ?)
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To: LibLieSlayer

nasa has to sub-contract getting their back ends cleaned.


If their muslim outreach is successful that should fix the back end cleaning problem...


13 posted on 12/31/2010 4:27:47 PM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine .. now it is your turn..)
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To: Fractal Trader; NormsRevenge; steelyourfaith; Grampa Dave; SierraWasp; tubebender; Carry_Okie; ...

Added some keywords so we can find this again!!!


14 posted on 12/31/2010 4:58:52 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Fractal Trader
The NASA David Hathaway prediction has been getting adjusted downward every month or two lately:

It's currently predicting a max of around 65 in 2013 (which would be in the same range as the Dalton Minimum), but I think it's going to be adjusted downward again next week, because the last three months have been down.

15 posted on 12/31/2010 5:09:05 PM PST by PapaBear3625 ("It is only when we've lost everything, that we are free to do anything" -- Fight Club)
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To: PapaBear3625
I forgot to add, hat tip to solarcycle24.com for the trend chart.
16 posted on 12/31/2010 5:10:59 PM PST by PapaBear3625 ("It is only when we've lost everything, that we are free to do anything" -- Fight Club)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I think that the GOD of Israel is putting fear into the hearts of this Administration, the wicked, and those who don't fear him..... GOD is showing the world just WHO is in charge.....
The SUN SPOT ROLLER COASTER RIDE is just a warm up of what the GOD of Israel is about to do by SIGNS in the HEAVENS, FAR AWAY STARS, and on this Earth ( You hear that Big Sis Janet, you get a front row seat to see just how powerful the GOD of ISRAEL REALLY IS, and there is NO THING YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT, because it is HE who is in charge and not you ).....
Tornadoes in December ? ... think about it folks....
17 posted on 12/31/2010 5:12:18 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fractal Trader
Hope it is ok for me adding SunSpots to the Keyword list as well.
Taint looking good campers. Like I have to even say it.
18 posted on 12/31/2010 5:49:42 PM PST by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned....)
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To: Marine_Uncle
I don't think there is any controlling authority for what keywords are added.....

I wish that everyone that posts articles would have some idea what a decent keyword is for those of us who follow articles by keywords...rather than just watching the active list....or whatever scheme works for people.

I have been thinking that we need a thread just to get a discussion going as to the power that keywords use to organize and REALLY stay current on specific topics.

The ping lists are another good way but if you are interested in a number of topics and get on a ping list for each....you see a lot of pings and it really takes a lot of time to go thru ...and it is really just current for a specific time period.

I really can chase articles down pretty efficiently using the keyword lists...

If a keyword is put on the article...but a lot of posters don't seem to see it that way.

19 posted on 12/31/2010 7:01:47 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: PIF

Hee hee!

LLS


20 posted on 12/31/2010 7:15:32 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than a dim to enter the kingdom of GOD!)
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To: muawiyah

So where are you posting the MUAWIYAH COUNT so that we can all share your knowledge?


21 posted on 12/31/2010 7:39:07 PM PST by Fractal Trader
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I appreciate all you have suggested. Perhaps the admins can be persuaded to create a good primer.
Good keylist are a blessing, when one must quickly look up something.
22 posted on 12/31/2010 7:59:21 PM PST by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned....)
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To: Fractal Trader; Ernest_at_the_Beach
Speaking of sunspots:

Heliogenic Climate Change

23 posted on 12/31/2010 8:27:49 PM PST by SouthTexas (A Merry and Blessed Christmas to All!)
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To: Fractal Trader
Solar Flux is coming in significantly lower then predicted.

Have a Great and Hopefully Warm New Year !

24 posted on 12/31/2010 8:50:35 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I have been thinking that we need a thread just to get a discussion going as to the power that keywords use to organize and REALLY stay current on specific topics.

I have never posted a thread about it but I have made a few good rants over the years. Keywords are especially useful for political research when a seemingly inconsequential but interesting story has faded from memory and a new story comes along that connects the dots.

A lot of FReepers seem to think the keyword function is there for their own therapy and fill it up with words that they think make a point. Points they don't have the guts to openly post of course.

Few seem to bother to put relevant keywords in that will help find the thread months or years down the line. The amazing power and flexibility that John Robinson put into FR software is just wasted potential as a result.

25 posted on 12/31/2010 9:05:45 PM PST by TigersEye (Who crashed the markets on 9/28/08 and why?)
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To: TigersEye
The amazing power and flexibility that John Robinson put into FR software is just wasted potential as a result.

Absolutely!!!

26 posted on 12/31/2010 9:38:14 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: BenLurkin; Ernest_at_the_Beach

Thanks for those pings, and Happy New Year!


27 posted on 12/31/2010 10:41:40 PM PST by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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To: Fractal Trader
I can post it here, but it's just as easy to go to INTELLICAST.COM and do it yourself. Remember, it's always snowing somewhere in Alaska or Hawaii (on top of the mountains).

CURRENTLY THE MUAWIYAH COUNT IS: 19

NOTE: You can count the pink spots too because there's usually a snowflake somewhere around there. But only one count per state no matter what's going on. Even Rhode Island counts.

28 posted on 01/01/2011 4:09:05 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: American Constitutionalist
I've seen tornados in December before. You live long enough you'll see all sorts of stuff.

Now, snow in Mississippi? Seen that too.

29 posted on 01/01/2011 4:12:18 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: Fractal Trader
In just an hour the Muawiyah Count has climbed to 30.

That's the number of states with snow or something like it happening to a great enough degree to show up on radar.

So, how to interpet this?

Well, cold air, some humidity, and you get snow and stuff!

30 posted on 01/01/2011 5:01:40 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: Fractal Trader
This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the ‘Little Ice Age’ when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.

Low solar activity does bring a lower overall solar input (and higher brings higher), not really enough to explain the full swing of temperature. My guess is that high solar multiplies heat by calming the stratosphere, so that's we saw warming above the small amount expected from CO2 rises.

Now that amplification effect is gone so global warming as we knew and loved it, will end. It doesn't mean it will get cold, but the increased temperature variation in the stratosphere will bring more extremes. One source of that variation is galactic cosmic rays which we get more of when the sun is inactive (low solar magnetic = more GCR). GCR is an especially uneven and unpredictable phenomenon.

31 posted on 01/01/2011 5:08:17 AM PST by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: justa-hairyape

The current trend line is totally out of whack with the predicted curve. It looks like it’s going to max out at around 90 rather than 140, which is a HELL of a lot lower than the prior cycle’s max of 195.


32 posted on 01/01/2011 8:47:08 AM PST by PapaBear3625 ("It is only when we've lost everything, that we are free to do anything" -- Fight Club)
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To: American Constitutionalist
2 Peter chapter 3 verses 3-13 NIV....


3. Above all, you must understand that in the last days scoffers will come, scoffing and following their own evil desires.
4. They will say, “Where is this ‘coming’ he promised? Ever since our ancestors died, everything goes on as it has since the beginning of creation.”
5. But they deliberately forget that long ago by God’s word the heavens came into being and the earth was formed out of water and by water.
6. By these waters also the world of that time was deluged and destroyed.
7. By the same word the present heavens and earth are reserved for fire, being kept for the day of judgment and destruction of the ungodly.
8. But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With the Lord a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day.
9. The Lord is not slow in keeping his promise, as some understand slowness. Instead he is patient with you, not wanting anyone to perish, but everyone to come to repentance.
10. But the day of the Lord will come like a thief. The heavens will disappear with a roar; the elements will be destroyed by fire, and the earth and everything done in it will be laid bare.
11. Since everything will be destroyed in this way, what kind of people ought you to be? You ought to live holy and godly lives
12. as you look forward to the day of God and speed its coming. That day will bring about the destruction of the heavens by fire, and the elements will melt in the heat.
13. But in keeping with his promise we are looking forward to a new heaven and a new earth, where righteousness dwells.

Is 2 Peter chapter 3 talking about Nuclear War ? perhaps...
Or ? is 2 Peter chapter 3 talking about our own star, the sun blasting the Earth with so great of heat ? perhaps...
Or ? as the bible says, the day of the LORD will come as a thief in the night, unaware.... so NASA won't know what is about to happen.
so ? could it be some kind of far away star that NASA is not aware of ?
Could this be some foretelling of a SUPER NOVA where it's polar axis is pointing directly at Earth and will fry the Earth with it's gama rays ?

GOD will causes the angles to take God's people, his saints away and out from this Earth just before this happens.
However ? the wicked, the ungodly, those who don't believe. life will go on, it will be like in the days of Noah, scoffing in disbelief.
However ? unlike NOAH's flood, where it took Noah over 100 years to build the ARK, this will happen suddenly.

TODAY ! is the day of Salvation, SEEK the LORD while he may be found... for it is appointed unto A man, once to die, and then, after that, the judgment.
Anyone on this Earth can slip into eternity at any time and any day,, NOW, TODAY ! is the day of salvation in our LORD Jesus Christ... don't wait until it's to late...
It's GOD's will that none shall be damned and parish, GOD's LOVE sent Jesus Christ...... Jesus Christ is the ONLY WAY TO SALVATION !!
33 posted on 01/01/2011 3:47:41 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: PapaBear3625

BTTT


34 posted on 01/01/2011 3:56:05 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: Fractal Trader
Is there a graph were it shows how lost how much the liberals and the Global Warming Freaks don't know what they know or where they are going ?

The Bible tells us that, yes, Global Warming is coming, and there is nothing mankind can do about it... as a matter of fact, GOD is going to fry this Earth with so great of heat that every element is going to melt....
This present Earth is passing away...
35 posted on 01/01/2011 3:59:53 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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