Posted on 01/19/2011 9:08:48 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
Boeing (NYSE: BA) announced today that it expects delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner in the third quarter of this year. The new delivery date reflects the impact of an in-flight incident during testing last November and includes the time required to produce, install and test updated software and new electrical power distribution panels in the flight test and production airplanes.
"This revised timeline for first delivery accommodates the work we believe remains to be done to complete testing and certification of the 787," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "We've also restored some margin in the schedule to allow for any additional time that may be needed to complete certification activities," Fancher said.
The 787 program has been gradually returning individual airplanes to the flight test program. After receiving interim software and hardware improvements, four flight test airplanes have been subjected to extensive ground testing and a thorough review to ensure their readiness to return to flight. The remaining two airplanes will be returning to flight in the days ahead to bring the full flight test fleet back up to flight status.
The revised first delivery date is not expected to have a material impact on 2010 financial results. Financial guidance and anticipated initial 787 deliveries for 2011 will be discussed in the company's earnings call on Jan. 26.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
So just like they "rolled out" the first aircraft on 7/8/2007, then basically took two more years to actually build one that could fly, they'll deliver the first aircraft to ANA in third quarter, but deliveries of aircraft after that are still going to be delayed and the delivery rate very slow.
This program is in trouble, and even with it's record-breaking backlog may not break even.
Royal Jordanian, China,and Japan agreed to purchase planes. Korean Air has entered into talks with Boeing
I guess for people who don't understand the nuances of an electrical bus overload, or the beauty of smoothly functioning load management software, yammering on about “the schedule” makes them feel like they are part of the process.
Bottom line is that if this aircraft performs as promised and if it delivers the range, fuel savings, and cabin comfort it is designed for, then the long development time will be quickly forgotten. This plane is set to fundamentally change long distance air travel by directly linking city pairs across the world and I believe it will be a tremendous success.
However, if they deliver this plane and it does not perform as promised and it has electrical fires, then I'll get on board and say the program is in big trouble.
The production line continues.
It is a wonderful jet (I've been on it), absolutely the most comfortable and passenger friendly jet out there. . .even in coach-class.
Revolutionary concept, design and materials.
That is the best post on this subject. Ever.
If project planners presented realistic schedules and cost estimates at the outset, most projects would never be approved.
So, you need to inject a bit of ungrounded optimism into the process, and then feed in the bad news gradually. I know this from personal experience.
It doesn’t necessarily mean there’s fraud or mismanagement involved, or the project isn’t worth doing. It’s just a concession to the bean counters who, by their nature, have no vision or imagination.
I should add...
...and little understanding of the engineering process.
Please don't talk down. The 787's original in-service date was May of 2008. It is now at least 3 years late, in what was supposed to be a four year program.
When an iPad is late, you shrug and say "we'll just sell them later than planned." When the Dreamliner is late, Boeing has violated their delivery contract and must make penalty payments to the people who have signed those contracts.
When an iPad doesn't meet the promised performance, you shrug and say "oh well, it's still very nice." When the Dreamliner doesn't meet it's promised performance, Boeing has violated their delivery contract, and even more penalty payments are due. The first 30 or so aircraft are going to be overweight, and will not make their originally promised fuel burn rate.
When you sell an iPad, you don't offer massive discounts to those who pre-order the unit. You may start a waiting list and set a target retail price, but if when the product comes out it cost you much more to develop than you originally planned, you can simply set a new price to whatever you wish, and people on the list can either pay the new price or decide not to buy.
The Dreamliner, by contrast, had not only it's retail price set before the airplane was even off the drawing boards, the Boeing sales team were offering some of the steepest discounts in the industry in order to rack up the impressive backlog of orders that they now enjoy. As a consequence, because the aircraft has cost over twice what was originally budgeted for development, those discounted prices do not cover costs, but because a signed contract is in place, Boeing cannot raise the price of those 847 aircraft already sold. You have to wait until aircraft number 848 before you can raise the price to make up your losses.
So yes, it will be a very nice aircraft, but Boeing is in the business to make money, not to make gorgeous planes at a loss.
Very well said.
Boeing has taken a hit to its reputation. Not a fatal one by any means, but a hit nonetheless. I understand that this is a revolutionary design, but it was apparently more revolutionary than the engineers believed.
Maybe we're unrealistic, but we expected better from Boeing.
They are far from finished, Hulka. They are still having their horizontal stabilizers reworked because of manufacturing errors by supplier Alenia. Some of them are also still waiting to have the wing box reinforcements added to them.
The production line has been halted four times already this year, and is just now coming off the latest 3 week halt in December.
It is a wonderful jet, but coach class comfort is entirely in the hands of the airlines and the number of seats they have installed. It is not a function of the aircraft itself.
Much better! The 787 is supposed to be able to operate with a higher humidity level than current aircraft, and that certainly will add to passenger comfort.
Didn't mean to offend, but your original post spoke only of schedule and not of these other pricing problems or performance issues. Thanks for enlightening me about these other issues about which I was not aware. Looks like you may be right that they are in trouble. It seems to me the program problem was over-promising upfront, but I am sure the blame is being placed on the development team while the MBA angelic beings are at Morton's phoning in the pressure..
My point was that schedule is often highly over emphasised, not just on this program, but in general. Now we know it takes 7-8 years to develop and test a next generation airliner, not 4.
bump
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