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The Next Financial Collapse ? [People will soon forget Japan & Libya]
Commentary ^ | March 19, 2011 | JOHN PODHORETZ

Posted on 03/19/2011 7:10:10 PM PDT by RobinMasters

In today’s Wall Street Journal, James Freeman interviews Paul Singer, who runs the hedge fund called Elliott Management and also serves on COMMENTARY’s board of directors. The interview is well worth your time, but it may disrupt your sleep, because it offers an all-too-believable scenario for the next financial disaster.

This time, according to Singer, it might happen due to legislation and regulations passed in the wake of the 2008 meltdown that will bring troubled financial institutions too close to government. In the bailout process, government agencies will have the right to choose which creditors get paid and which don’t—and the uncertainty of that will cause all of them to flee the firm once a bailout is even thinkable. This is the ultimate “unanticipated consequence.”

I can attest to Paul Singer’s prognosticative powers. I first met him in June 2007, and I asked him at the time about the subprime mortgage market, whose problems had begun to make the front page. “The worst recession of our lifetimes is now baked in the cake,” he said, 15 months before the meltdown of 2008.

So he’s worth a listen.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
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1 posted on 03/19/2011 7:10:13 PM PDT by RobinMasters
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To: RobinMasters
In the bailout process, government agencies will have the right to choose which creditors get paid and which don’t.

Ain't it great when progressives make up arbitrary rules as they go. We are doomed. The left has FUBARed this country beyond repair.

2 posted on 03/19/2011 7:14:11 PM PDT by Drill Thrawl (I don't prep for the disaster. I prepare for the rebuilding.)
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To: SouthernClaire

Bookmark.


3 posted on 03/19/2011 7:14:57 PM PDT by SouthernClaire (HE must increase)
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To: Drill Thrawl

Yes they have, and let’s remember that when it’s time to rebuild. There needs to be a serious purge of commies.


4 posted on 03/19/2011 7:15:33 PM PDT by Scutter
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To: RobinMasters

Past performance is not indicative of future results.........but it’s the best we got........


5 posted on 03/19/2011 7:16:53 PM PDT by Red Badger (How can anyone look at the situation in Libya and be for gun control is beyond stupid. It's suicide.)
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To: sneakers

bump for later.


6 posted on 03/19/2011 7:18:22 PM PDT by sneakers
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To: RobinMasters

“In the bailout process, government agencies will have the right to choose which creditors get paid and which don’t”

What’s new. The government essentially stole GM from the bondholders and gave it to the UAW.

Contract law means nothing now.


7 posted on 03/19/2011 7:19:23 PM PDT by headstamp 2 (The most dangerous place on the face of the earth is between a liberal and their money.)
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To: Scutter

Hell to the yes.....


8 posted on 03/19/2011 7:19:23 PM PDT by ExpatGator (I hate Illinois Nazis!)
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To: headstamp 2
Contract law means nothing now.

Contract law died with no-fault divorce.

9 posted on 03/19/2011 7:26:20 PM PDT by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: RobinMasters
Yeah I said it too and so did a hundred others. In fact I took grad classes in financial engineering so I'd know how to short the housing market. Please.

All hedgies are their own biggest admirers.

By all means, read the interview. But consider the source, and consider that it's really not rocket science after all.

anyway, the breakdown of the private sector means the end of economic leadership. Period.

10 posted on 03/19/2011 7:29:37 PM PDT by the invisib1e hand (You is what you am.)
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To: RobinMasters
"But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."
11 posted on 03/19/2011 7:35:21 PM PDT by DTogo (High time to bring back the Sons of Liberty !!)
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To: RobinMasters

*


12 posted on 03/19/2011 7:37:50 PM PDT by fightinJAG (I am sick of people adding comments to titles in the title box. Thank you.)
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To: RobinMasters
I can attest to Paul Singer’s prognosticative powers. I first met him in June 2007, and I asked him at the time about the subprime mortgage market, whose problems had begun to make the front page. “The worst recession of our lifetimes is now baked in the cake,” he said, 15 months before the meltdown of 2008.

Oh, please. It was widely known and consequences were anticipated from dire but workable through to financial collapse. Little old me, no hedge fund "prognosticator" I, was sitting on the beach in the southern Outer Banks when the news hit that summer, that people in California weren't even trying to keep their houses but were just turning in the keys and defaulting. I knew then, as did anyone paying attention, that we were in for one heck of a ride with derivatives and MBS, let alone residential real estate.

Excessive government "coziness" isn't a new thing, either. Is our government run by Goldman Sachs, or is Goldman Sachs run by the government? I have to say, it's hard to tell with all the incestuous back and forth.

Will this precipitate a crisis in one form or another? Well, yes. To some of us, it already is, no crystal ball "prognostication" necessary.

13 posted on 03/19/2011 7:47:49 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: the invisib1e hand

“Yeah I said it too and so did a hundred others. “

Care to make any prognostications on the coming year?


14 posted on 03/19/2011 7:48:16 PM PDT by webstersII
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To: DTogo

Yes, but is it done peacefully in rigged elections which may come too late or done forcefully upon the realization by whom and how many, esp. when Congess and Courts refuse to help?

How would you start to throw off such a government?
We are still under a national emergency with the President having all the powers granted after 9/11(and secret powers in the Annexes of 2007 which likely means he becomes a military dictator). Congress refuses to review those powers as required by law.


15 posted on 03/19/2011 7:51:22 PM PDT by charlie72
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To: RobinMasters

I’m buying extra rice and beans for my economic fallout shelter but I’m hedging my bets by putting bids on a 22 gauge Pittsburgh machine.


16 posted on 03/19/2011 7:52:12 PM PDT by Sawdring
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To: Scutter

get me some..... i will be long gone due to lack of medicine when that occurs.. but rid these pricks once and for all for my kids liberty......


17 posted on 03/19/2011 7:55:44 PM PDT by sentient
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To: RobinMasters; All
When are the republicans going to get busy and cut business taxes - DRASTICALLY - to get some jobs back here?
Makes you wonder who is getting paid off - not just the socialists?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idpTCGrWXEM

The reason people don't realize just how bad it is - that it doesn't LOOK like the Great Depression days with the long soup lines - is because of food stamps.

(waiting for the self-righteous to post about these lazy bums - don't expect an answer)

18 posted on 03/19/2011 7:56:24 PM PDT by maine-iac7 ("We stand together or we fall apart" mt)
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To: Drill Thrawl

It sure is great. Government chooses which creditors get paid. It chooses who can get a waiver from Obamacare. It can decide when to ignore the courts. Our federal government intervenes when a state like Arizona or Wisconsin tries to actually SOLVE its problems. Imperial presidency indeed. Everyone should read up on the death of the Roman republic. That really worked out well.


19 posted on 03/19/2011 7:58:47 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: RegulatorCountry
Will this precipitate a crisis in one form or another?

I think that form will eventually end up being a world war.

Maybe it won't be the next crisis, but the one after that, and yes, there will be a series of crises.

Fascism always leads to war before the final collapse.

20 posted on 03/19/2011 8:03:10 PM PDT by seowulf ("If you write a whole line of zeroes, it's still---nothing"...Kira Alexandrovna Argounova)
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