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Poll: Trump’s entry into the race would hurt Palin the most
Hotair ^ | March 23,2011 | Allahpundit

Posted on 03/23/2011 8:01:22 PM PDT by Hojczyk

It’s weird to think of him pulling votes from anyone, but … Palin? The candidate with the single most devoted base in the entire field?

Draw me a Venn diagram of their respective constituencies, please.

Ten percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they would most likely support Trump for the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination.

That would place him fifth on the list behind former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee at 19 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 White House hopeful Mitt Romney at 18 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin at 12 percent…

“Removing Trump’s name from the list and allocating his voters to their second choice gives Huckabee 21 percent and Romney 19 percent – essentially unchanged from January. In a Trump-less field, Gingrich gets 15 percent, up from 10 percent in January, and Paul goes from 7 percent to 11 percent. Palin is the big loser, dropping from 19 percent in a no-Trump round in January to just 13 percent now,” adds Holland.

That’s the fun part of the poll. The less fun part is that Democratic enthusiasm has jumped to 56 percent, trimming a 22-point Republican advantage to … just six. I’m trying hard not to attribute that to a backlash on the left against Wisconsin, but it’s the most compelling explanation I can think of.

As for the Trump/Palin overlap, maybe there’s a portion of disengaged Republican voters who tilt towards the candidate with the highest name recognition. Normally that’s Sarah, but That Guy From “The Apprentice” out-celebrities even her. Similarly, could be that some righties are looking to liven up the debates for fear of a Romney/Pawlenty/Gingrich/Daniels soporific nightmare. Palin and Trump would both achieve that. Or maybe some of Palin’s support right now is as a protest vote by people disaffected with the establishment GOP. I’m skeptical of that, though, since protest votes don’t normally go to candidates like her who can actually win.

If the Trump vote is coming from people who are simply looking to spoil a ballot as a kiss-off to the top contenders in the field, I would think he’d be pulling more from someone like Ron Paul (who actually finished two points behind Trump) than from her.

All theories welcome. Via JWF, here he is


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: birthertrump
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To: nopardons

She did support Israel and appeared informed about that, but she just left there. It was fresh on her mind and she probably learned something while there. I’ll give you that ONE. I’d love to see her do well. I’m not sure she even plans to run. She is light in the knowledge department.


221 posted on 03/24/2011 12:16:00 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: tatown; upsdriver
Unlike YOU, I fully understood what the other poster was saying.

I would NEVER vote for Obama and I would NEVER vote for "The Donald"!

Why do you need that all spelled out for you?

222 posted on 03/24/2011 12:17:28 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: Minus_The_Bear

Give it up. You are debating with an idiot who tried to explain in an earlier post a scenario in which he/she could cast a vote for Obama.


223 posted on 03/24/2011 12:18:09 AM PDT by tatown (Obama is a turd)
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To: tsowellfan

U.S. Constitution. Article II, Section 1, Clause 5. Look it up.


224 posted on 03/24/2011 12:18:15 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: faucetman
She is light in the knowledge department.

As compared to which potential Republican candidate or candidates?

225 posted on 03/24/2011 12:18:58 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: nopardons

Because that is NOT what she said.


226 posted on 03/24/2011 12:21:23 AM PDT by tatown (Obama is a turd)
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To: tsowellfan

“The birth certificate is not a required document for the verification of age?”

Believe it or not, there is no proof required to become president of the United States. NONE. A statement by the head of the party stating that the candidate is eligible is what has been accepted. Even though the party head could lie, or have no real knowledge of the candidates eligibility. Age or otherwise. Crazy no?


227 posted on 03/24/2011 12:24:11 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: faucetman
She is NOT "light in the knowledge department".

I bet you believe that she actually said :"I CAN SEE RUSSIA FROM MY HOUSE", too.

All you do is parrot liberal talking points.

This wasn't a debate, this wasn't a two hour speech given oh policy matters, nor was it a dissertation for a Master's degree. No, this was Greta's show where Greta tries to get a whole bunch of questions asked and answered in a brief period of time. And what Palin said was spot on, she was cogent, said only one very brief "um" in 30 minutes, and answered each question without veering off into some foggy noman's land.

Name me someone who is or might be running who could have done a better job and don't bother saying Newt, because that isn't true.

228 posted on 03/24/2011 12:25:43 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: tatown

It most assuredly IS what “he” said...if only you read between the lines/with a modicum of rational thought.


229 posted on 03/24/2011 12:27:54 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: nopardons

Wrong. She said if the choice was between Obama and Trump she’d chose Obama.


230 posted on 03/24/2011 12:29:40 AM PDT by tatown (Obama is a turd)
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To: nopardons

Well, what is the ever-so-brilliant Newt’s weighty opinion on Israel or the Libya no-fly zone? I do know that he agreed with Palin, and then changed his mind regarding the no-fly zone. Israel? Has he chimed in of late?


231 posted on 03/24/2011 12:30:28 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: tatown
Which anyone with any sense would know meant that meant, since this is a conservative forum.

I doubt that anyone here would ever even contemplate voting for Obama.

Good grief.................................

232 posted on 03/24/2011 12:34:50 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: nopardons
meant #1 = what

It's late....sorry for the typos and mucked up words.

233 posted on 03/24/2011 12:36:12 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: Hojczyk

Insider fascist govt. controller “traders”, are looking for the most gullible “candidates” they can manipulate.

As in the elections after Reagan, by propaganda through the bailed out media, they plan to place/select two selected candidates forward, defining “what’s important” (for them) by controlling the debate questions.


234 posted on 03/24/2011 12:36:28 AM PDT by Varsity Flight
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To: RegulatorCountry
GOD only knows what Newtie "thinks" about anything......he's been keeping very quite about all of the happenings and when he does speak, chimes in rather belatedly.

But hey...........who knows what Mittens, the Huckster, TPaw, or any of the others "think" about Libya, Japan, oil prices, Iran, Israel, or the price of eggs in England ( which is now quite high, due to inflation) ?

235 posted on 03/24/2011 12:40:17 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: RegulatorCountry

Newt, Trump, Rudy David Petraeus, Jim DeMint, John Bolton, to name a few


236 posted on 03/24/2011 12:40:29 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: tatown; upsdriver; nopardons

“Hell, I’ll vote for Obama before I ever vote for Trump. I can’t believe people are taking his threats to run seriously. He is Perot 2012 version.”

Just in case you lost your train of thought, tatown, this is the original post.

I, personally, would vote for Obama the same amount of times I would vote for Trump.

That amount would be zero for both...just as upsdriver says.


237 posted on 03/24/2011 12:41:29 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 ("First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." - Gandhi)
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To: nopardons
You are blinded by your support for Palin. I get it. The election is a long way off and we don't even know who will run in either party. Let's agree to disagree and save it for later.
238 posted on 03/24/2011 12:44:23 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: Hojczyk

http://2012.republican-candidates.org/Trump/Issues.php


239 posted on 03/24/2011 12:45:05 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: faucetman
DeMint is running, I wonder about Trump, as I think this could just be a chest thumping, ego inflating gag, Newt and Bolton haven't a snowball's chance in hell and neither should ever be president. Is Patraeus even contemplating a run? He shouldn't! Rudy? After the debacle he made of it all the last time? NO WAY; though he's better than Trump!

Get real..........why not just throw in Dick Cheney and Rumsfeld; Reagan's corpse, for that matter?

240 posted on 03/24/2011 12:46:03 AM PDT by nopardons
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