Well he’s too late for wheat. I heard that the Saudi’s have bought up most of the 2012 Wheat futures. I guess old George will get everything else.
He should die soon as I think he is about 81 or 82 years old.
No tears would be shed if someone were to help speed up his meeting with his maker!!
1) OI (that's 'open interest', the number of futures contracts open at any given time) has been declining in wheat for the past 6 weeks. If the Saudis (or anyone else) bought last year, they MAY (heavy emphasis, MAY) still hold some, but the bulk of them are held on the long side by the usual suspects: users, think Pillsbury and so forth. Cargill and ADM and the other huge grains players are generally producers, and thus have little use for the long side of futures, bar the occasional attempt at manipulation.
You can view for yourself what all the traders are doing by looking at CFTC Commitment of Traders, and clicking on "Commitment of Traders" at the right side of the page. As typical, the goobermint uses numerous terms designed to obscure the information to ordinary citizens, so if you have some questions about these data, feel perfectly free to FReepmail me, and I'll be happy to translate. The figures are updated each Friday (do yourself a favour, read them on Saturday -- you know the goobermint...).
2) The spike in grain prices generally over the past couple of years is due mostly to spectacularly bad weather in major producing nations, particuarly Ukraine, Pakistan, Australia and Argentina -- the traders are essentially betting on one or more similar crop disasters this year. They're going to be disappointed: be my guest and look up the history of grain prices in 1975, after two similar crop disasters in 1972-3 and 1973-4. Feel free to use my website to do so, absolutely no charge: Time & Timing
3) The Commodity Futures Modernization (hah!) Act of 2000, duly passed by the Regress and signed by the crook in the White House, EXEMPTED investment banks from hedging and position limit rules if they were acting "on behalf of" their clients. This lunacy led shortly, by 2008, to the spike in energy prices, and was blown up as the cockroaches all scattered after the testimony, in both houses of the Regress, of hedge fund manager Michael Masters, who explained, in VERY plain language, what the cockroaches had been up to. I haven't a link for you, sorry, (I've read his testimony long since), but it is ALL OVER the Internet, and I'm certain a simple Google search will show it to you. The consequences of this idiot Act were (what else?) well more far-reaching than the clowns in the Regress had the wit to imagine. This infection started spreading to grain mkts about 4 months after the cockroaches were chased out of the energy mkts, and has persisted to date.
More details than you'd likely care to have, upon your request. However, pls do be advised that the whole of the buying is absolutely and utterly dependent upon the expectation of yet more crop disasters this year. Should this NOT occur (which, let's face it, is the usual situation in grain mkts worldwide), the long side specs are going to be destroyed.
Here's a hint: the USDA survey of "planting intentions" for wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton and so forth comes out tomorrow morning at 7:30 CST. It's a bit difficult for a layman to decipher, so -- what the hell -- call a commodities firm (I trade with PFG, call 800-935-6487 and ask specifically for Phil Flynn, a VERY knowledgeable man with decades in the business (as have I). Use my name, Stu Johnston, and he'll certainly give you his take. He'll also try to get you to open a trading account. Don't, unless you understand grain and/or futures mkts).
Full disclosure: I have exactly zero positions on in any grain market just now, and only a very small short options position on in cotton. FAR too dangerous for anyone other than a dead gambler to trade grains at this time -- they'll probably be worth a look come about August or so, once we see how this year's crops are doing.
Crop planting and crop levels aside, the true villain here is the very deliberate and willful destruction of currencies worldwide, as welfare states begin to learn the truth of the estimable Mrs. Thatcher's statement: Socialism always works until one runs out of other people's money.
There are ways to protect yourself and your loved ones from the decline of the US dollar that WILL -- make no mistake -- continue for some years, but, if you believe the Saudis are manipulating the wheat markets, you're likely not ready to hear these methods, nor believe them.
In any case, FReegards to you!
The Saudis have halted nearly all domestic wheat production. It was prohibitively expensive and demanded too much water. Second, on Soros, his two sons are just as bed as he is but don’t get the ink.
I would not want to be in this atheist’s shoes when he meets the Living God face-to-face.Which, I hope, is soon.