The Vulnerability of Peripheries

The American Interest ^ | March - April 2011 | A. Wess Mitchell & Jakub Grygiel

[neverdem]

Up and down the frontier of American global power, from the South China Sea to the Middle East, from the Caucasus to the north Central European plain, U.S. allies are increasingly nervous. Along the littoral rim of East Asia, South Koreans, Japanese, Taiwanese and others in the region watched anxiously throughout 2010 as China ratcheted up efforts to assert control over strategic waterways and challenge the U.S. position in Asia. In the Middle East, too, Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States ended the year less confident than ever that the United States would somehow bestir itself to contain an aspiring nuclear-armed Iran. And on Europe’s eastern fringe, despite efforts at détente with Moscow, Poland and the Baltic States entered 2011 with deep uncertainties about America’s long-term regional commitment in the face of a decrepit but atavistically revisionist Russia.

Viewed separately, these are unrelated regional silos, each with its own geopolitical rhythm, security logic and ranking in the hierarchy of American strategic and political priorities. But seen together, a different picture emerges. In all three regions, small, geopolitically exposed states with formal or informal U.S. security commitments straddle age-old strategic fault lines in close proximity to rising or resurgent power centers. In all three, assertiveness on the part of these larger powers has led American allies to reassess U.S. assurances. And in all three, American allies have been at best temporarily reassured, and at times unsettled, by Washington’s response. This has led them all, to one degree or another, to invest in new strategic options to hedge against the possibility of eventual American retrenchment.

Amid the now globally accepted thesis of American decline, America’s global rivals are doing what aspirant powers have done at moments of transition for millennia: hypothesis-testing. They are probing the top state on the outer...

[neverdem]

Peripheries are at least accessible by sea. We have to depend on the good graces of Russia and Pakistan for access to the barbarians in Afghanistan.

At least there's seaborne access for the foolery in Libya.

As far as Georgia goes, it should have been anticipated. They needed man portable antitank and antiaircraft guided missiles at least to give the Russkis a reason to think twice.

[odds]

The “peripheries” have been treated as “peripheral” for so long that what we’ve seen in the past 10 yrs can be construed a culmination of our own prior mistakes, which we still seem not to learn from, only to repeat.

A Major war, starting in the ME/N.Africa region, is in the pipeline as we speak. Hope am wrong.

[odds]

Amid the now globally accepted thesis of American decline

Really? Personally, I wish American gov'ts had more of a long term vision before acting, rather than always looking for short-term solutions. After all, US is only just over 200 yrs old; that's a drop in the ocean compared to China, Russia, Europe & most of the key players in the ME or N. Africa. Not to mention that the US didn't really become a global player until after WWII. Tho, her role as a *stabilizer for Good*, combined w/ some wisdom, should not be taken lightly; otherwise, it'd be a shame.

[Elsie]

Along the littoral rim of East Asia, South Koreans, Japanese, Taiwanese and others in the region watched anxiously throughout 2010 as China ratcheted up efforts to assert control over strategic waterways and challenge the U.S. position in Asia.

Revelation 9:13-19

Then the sixth angel sounded: And I heard a voice from the four horns of the golden altar which is before God, saying to the sixth angel who had the trumpet, “Release the four angels who are bound at the great river Euphrates.”

So the four angels, who had been prepared for the hour and day and month and year, were released to kill a third of mankind. Now the number of the army of the horsemen was two hundred million; I heard the number of them. And thus I saw the horses in the vision: those who sat on them had breastplates of fiery red, hyacinth blue, and sulfur yellow; and the heads of the horses were like the heads of lions; and out of their mouths came fire, smoke, and brimstone. By these three plagues a third of mankind was killed—by the fire and the smoke and the brimstone which came out of their mouths. For their power is in their mouth and in their tails; for their tails are like serpents, having heads; and with them they do harm.

[redgolum]

Remember, Poland and Sweden had a few years of global power.

We are probably going to be more like them than the British Empire. Just to far from the other centers of power.

[odds]

Well, US was never designed to be the British Empire. The British even now consider US a colony that didn’t behave. Keep a stiff upperlip :) - For some Britain will always be GB & the UK. Will be interesting to see how it’ll all develop after current British monarch, sooner or later, joins the dearly departed.