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Silver Black Swan If Rampant Speculation Is Not Reigned In
TMO ^ | 4-23-2011 | Dian L Chu

Posted on 04/23/2011 5:11:22 PM PDT by blam

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To: Yet_Again

“Unless you think that gold is too high (which given the historical ratios, is an impossible case to make if you’re also saying silver is going to go higher).”

I don’t understand this line of thinking, it doesn’t make any sense. If silver rose 20% and gold dropped 20%, the spread would be a ratio of (1:21.5, gold vs. silver), far from historical norms. Silver can go up by 30% (of its current value, to $61) and gold can drop 30% (of ITS currents value, $1050), (a ratio of about 1:17) and we still wouldn’t be at the historical ratio of gold to silver (about 1:15). While people can think gold is too high, they can also think silver will go higher, according to historical ratios, and be entirely probable and plausibile, not IMpossible. In fact according to historical ratios, either gold is far too high, or silver far too low, or it could even be argued that both values can adjust. However, according to buying power, gold seems to still be about right (A good suit), but silver is a bit low (A family meal at a restaurant) (*Note there are other rules of thumb used by people). The buying power of silver is still not caught up to what is once was, but it’s slowly moving up (at a slightly faster rate than the other commodities/general goods). Me, I think both gold and silver will rise, but silver at a much faster rate. JMHO.


41 posted on 04/23/2011 7:49:10 PM PDT by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: bluefish

“The Japanese Earthquake would be a black swan. The markets just seemed to shrug that off.”

Never underestimate the power of a Central Bank to print/lend/fabricate fiat money into an economy until the whole thing collapses.


42 posted on 04/23/2011 7:50:56 PM PDT by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: blam

The silver bulls are all over the internet and despise JP Morgan which is a notorious short on silver for years. They are gunning for JP Morgan and Blythe Masters and think they can bankrupt JP Morgan. By demanding silver for delivery at the Comex

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/


43 posted on 04/23/2011 7:54:52 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: blam
Silver Black Swan If Rampant Speculation Is Not Reigned In

It's difficult to take someone seriously who can't tell the difference between "reigned" and "reined."

44 posted on 04/23/2011 8:01:37 PM PDT by Interesting Times (WinterSoldier.com. SwiftVets.com. ToSetTheRecordStraight.com.)
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To: Palter

Do you have a better opinion of Ultra Silver? Their “silver” must be all futures and derivatives?

http://www.proshares.com/funds/agq.html


45 posted on 04/23/2011 8:04:13 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: Interesting Times

Here is the author with the incorrect usage
http://about.me/dian.l.chu

Or maybe she did a hasty spell check and it slipped past her.


46 posted on 04/23/2011 8:07:41 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: blam

Buy Silver — Crash JP Morgan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTalT9iI-k4&feature=related

more fun-—>>>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhcFI-vzNXk


47 posted on 04/23/2011 8:10:28 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: blam
A 20% drop would be a great buying opportunity and I'm not selling one dime of mine and I bet a lot of others feel the same way... check this out...

http://www.coinflation.com/silver_coin_values.html

48 posted on 04/23/2011 8:41:09 PM PDT by Sleeping Freeper
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To: JDW11235
Yep, that's pretty close. Another way to express what I'm trying to say is that, forgetting dollars for a moment and with one caveat, an ounce of silver will buy about as many Snicker's bars today as it will one year from now.

The caveat is that precious metals could experience their own bubble - but any such bubble will be temporary.

49 posted on 04/23/2011 8:44:09 PM PDT by The Duke
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To: The Duke
Let me go one step further and mention that just because the value of the stock market, expressed in dollars, goes up - don't necessarily interpret that as good times. It will probably just be the value of stocks adjusting for inflation.

If you *really* want to know what's going in with the stock market research the term "DOW in gold dollars" (aka "DIG$").

50 posted on 04/23/2011 8:46:42 PM PDT by The Duke
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To: blam

Silver is just closing in on its traditional historical price ratio of 15 to 1 with gold (15 oz silver=1oz Gold). I believe there will be hiccoughs along the way, but that it is headed somewhere near there.


51 posted on 04/23/2011 8:50:52 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Yet_Again
Also increases tax revenue.

If peoples income moves with inflation, everyone moves up in tax brackets as well.

Sudenly, everyone is "rich" and fair game for punishing taxes!

52 posted on 04/23/2011 8:52:02 PM PDT by sjmjax (Politicans are like bananas - they start out green, turn yellow, then rot.)
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To: blam

I think a 20% down move is wishful thinking on the parts of the silver bears.


53 posted on 04/23/2011 8:57:36 PM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: The Duke

“The “value” of an ounce of silver won’t change much, however the “price” will change dramatically with the fall of the dollar.”

Exactly correct...

Gold and silver ‘is not’ ‘will not’ and ‘will never be’ in a “bubble” because they are the true money of the world...


54 posted on 04/23/2011 9:13:50 PM PDT by phockthis
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To: pepperdog

The US already has said they will back a global monetary reserve currency that is NOT the US dollar.

This is also a way to destroy the middle class and much of the smaller rich and small business people. Hyperinflation will kill off a lot.


55 posted on 04/23/2011 9:46:48 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder
I bought some $35 silver the other night and thought I was in the Twilight Zone as I snapped it up.

A SPECULATOR!!! A SPECULATOR!!! BURN HIM!!!! BURN HIM!!!!

56 posted on 04/23/2011 9:46:50 PM PDT by dr_lew
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To: Secret Agent Man
Hyperinflation will kill off a lot.

It'll kill off me. I'm sitting on cash, as circumstances would have it.

I'm like that dog in the commercial, "Trouble. Trouble. Trouble." I forget what the solution was for him. Give his money to some one else, I think. But why would they want it?

57 posted on 04/23/2011 9:53:07 PM PDT by dr_lew
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To: dr_lew

Hahaha. Nice! Wait, didn’t I lower the average market price...? Or, did I create an artificial scarcity..? Me so confused!


58 posted on 04/23/2011 10:09:58 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (The New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.)
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To: Presbyterian Reporter
The ETF takes physical delivery

Yeah...but are we sure GLD and SLV really take hard metal as delivery?

59 posted on 04/24/2011 4:31:22 AM PDT by spokeshave (Obamas approval ratings are so low, Kenyans are accusing him of being born in the USA.)
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To: Yet_Again

“why fill vaults with silver instead of gold”

Will you be going to the grocery store with a Krugerrand or
Maple Leaf worth $12,000. to buy bread and ask for change each time? I doubt it. Silver is the money of the masses, and will be the medium of exchange on the street for the entire world.


60 posted on 04/24/2011 4:45:33 AM PDT by Fireone (Liberals are just overschooled, undereducated, adult children.)
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