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Silver Black Swan If Rampant Speculation Is Not Reigned In
TMO ^ | 4-23-2011 | Dian L Chu

Posted on 04/23/2011 5:11:22 PM PDT by blam

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To: bluefish
Very good, very good.

Thanks for posting.

Silver: Revisiting The Silver Bear Black Swans

21 posted on 04/23/2011 5:44:47 PM PDT by blam
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To: Vince Ferrer

Let us not forget that the last time we had silver prices skyrocketing a dingbat Democrat was our President.

Obama is going to make Jimmy Carter look good!!!!!


22 posted on 04/23/2011 5:46:43 PM PDT by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: blam

Blam, I’m addressing my post to you, since we’ve talked before, but this post is really to everyone. For those who say that silver is in a bubble, or that silver is “over speculated” I say baloney.

Here’s why. Today, I went shopping, and I took the time to do some pricing. I looked at the price of meat, yeast, eggs, and a few other things, that I just took note of today.

Sirloin steak, used to be 2.29 on sale here (last two years), or about $2.89 regular, and as of today, was around $7.59 or so, not on sale. Yeast used to be 2.50/lb not on sale, and is now 5.99 regular, $4.00 was the sale price. Eggs used to be about $0.79/large dozen, now about $1.89 for a dozen medium eggs, not on sale. Gasoline has also gon up by about 150% or so. Last year veggie plants at the hardware store were about $2.00-$2.49 per pack, today they were nearly $4.00. I did not price them today, but two years ago, I checked the price of socks and undergarments, Socks were about 3.49 for a dozen, now they are about $7.00 for 8-10 pair. One brand of undergarment was $8.50 for 5 pair, now are 2 parif for $7 (And previous to that, 4 years ago, were 6 pair for 7.50).

The price of silver has NOT gone up. The dollar is merely dropping like a rock. Everything relative to silver, in food, fuel, clothing, etc., etc., has gone up by double to triple in the last two years. The recent food, fuel, and commodity gains and clothing retail prices have shot up in the last 30 to 60 days also, not just silver. the thing is, that the companies that were trying to hold prices down through Christmas, didn’t slam us all at once after new years, they’ve incrementally raised prices every few weeks, to not shock us (and to thwart anger and compete for customers), but the fact of the matter is that retail prices are up, whether or not some bureaucrat says they are. I’ve done my price checking, I keep a budget and am a very regular buyer. I have no reason to believe that silver (or gold, to say, “real money”), or any other good necessary for civilized life (soap, food, fuel, clothing, NOT ipads), will go down relative to the dollar. I believe there may be a slight drop as some people sell to capitalize on another good they may need, but it will not last long. People will flee further to PM’s if there is a depression, the demand WON’T go away. It never has (though it has been of less value to some), and probably never fully will, even if you can’t eat it. The fact is, people want stability, and fiat money never will provide it.

My two cents (worth less everyday).


23 posted on 04/23/2011 5:49:40 PM PDT by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: Palter

“””Today’s problem are the speculators who ‘buy’ something, ie ETF’s, Oil, without the physical delivery.”””

The ETF takes physical delivery. Letting someone act as your agent has been part of business for centuries.


24 posted on 04/23/2011 5:49:40 PM PDT by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: The Duke

See my post at #23, I think it’s along the lines of what you were saying.


25 posted on 04/23/2011 5:52:51 PM PDT by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: blam

Raise margin requirements (again) on silver, but only on silver.
Yeah!....
Thats the ticket.
It’ll fix everything.


26 posted on 04/23/2011 5:53:04 PM PDT by nkycincinnatikid
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To: Beelzebubba

I bought some $35 silver the other night and thought I was in the Twilight Zone as I snapped it up.

I agree with you that there is likely to be a powerful silver dump at some point. From where, nobody can say.

But I also think that it is nothing to be feared because that dunp will be bought up, worldwide, like nothing we’ve ever seen (except Beanie Babies or Cabbage Patch dolls)

I sure as heck will.


27 posted on 04/23/2011 5:54:17 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (The New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.)
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To: Presbyterian Reporter
Sure, trust the banksters.
28 posted on 04/23/2011 5:55:50 PM PDT by Palter (If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it. ~ Mark Twain)
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To: Fireone

“I believe this “bubble” is just getting legs, and won’t break until $150-$200/oz. silver is upon us. A 10-20% correction will not burst the bubble.”

Bears repeating. Plus, the amount of usable silver for trade (there’s more in the ground to be mined), has been rapidly diminishing in recent years, not to mention that it’s historic ratio to gold (1:15 or so) is off by a long shot, and that the amount of silver (due to use), in relation to gold (saved), is dropping fast. China has told it’s people to buy gold for personal investments, I’m sure people take that to mean silver too. There is no more reason to believe that silver will drop than there is to believe we’re in a “recovery.” In fact the reasons why both are patently false are one in the same, ironically.


29 posted on 04/23/2011 5:57:56 PM PDT by JDW11235 (I think I got it now!)
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To: blam

Interesting. Thanks for posting.


30 posted on 04/23/2011 6:07:01 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: Beelzebubba
A good drop of 20% (to $37) is a terrific buying opportunity.

I'll be in for 1000 ounces of bullion at that price.
31 posted on 04/23/2011 6:09:04 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Time to beat the swords of government tyranny into the plowshares of freedom.)
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To: PA Engineer

I don’t have enough for 1,000 oz. but put me down for a bit more too.


32 posted on 04/23/2011 6:37:21 PM PDT by bluefish (NoBama! Because Commies Suck)
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To: Palter

Where did I say anything about the Democrat party?

I mentioned the left, who are socialists/communists and who attack the free market and capitalism whenever they can.

And I disagree with you. If you and I buy gold and silver, that is quite different from the mega-investment firms that I listed WHO USE TAXPAYER MONEY and NEWLY PRINTED FIAT MONEY to invest heavily in commodities.

What they are doing is manipulating the market, which should warrant an SEC investigation, not praise. You and I don’t have that kind of “capital” advantage. And they are at one in the same time printing new money, receiving it before the velocity of money increases, which means money is moving on the streets which is what finally results in inflation and the devalued dollar. Once again, it is the Corporate Socialists who use the newly printed money before it devalues to invest in something that will go up in value as the dollar devalues.

This is classic “central banking.” And that is why “central banking” is really “Socialist banking.”

Hell, yeah, republicans and democrats, they are irrelevant. What matters is money and gross profit PRIVATIZED while the losses are SOCIALIZED.

Huge difference between that and some schlep employee of a small firm speculating at what cotton will sell at in a year.


33 posted on 04/23/2011 6:42:36 PM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare for survival.)
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe

Yep.

The FED is a FASCIST socialist commie dream come true.

Fiat money is a ponzi scheme that is killing the middle class. Just like they WANT TO.

End the FED.

Debt slavery is not capitalism.


34 posted on 04/23/2011 6:56:44 PM PDT by TruthConquers (.Delendae sunt publicae scholae)
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To: Presbyterian Reporter
It has become obvious to me that along with, food, heirloom seeds, guns, ammo and other supplies, we will need hard currency. Throughout the centuries all nations large and small have minted silver coin for their populace. It is the shortage of precious coinage that is causing the demand for silver. Nowhere near enough new coins are being minted, but billet and rounds are being made and hoarded in mass, as are monster boxes of Canadian leafs and so on. Along with devaluation of the dollar will come a coinage crisis. In other words if the dollar fails, there will not be enough coins to go around. It is interesting that there has never been a communist or socialist state with a gold or silver standard. It is hard because of our lifelong brainwashing to see that prices are not rising, silver is still and always will be about $1 per ounce coin.
35 posted on 04/23/2011 7:10:28 PM PDT by MAGICAL CHICAGO CRIME PUPPET
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To: blam

Why would this be a black swan? A “black swan”, in Taleb’s nomenclature, is an exceedingly rare event that almost no one expects or plans for.


36 posted on 04/23/2011 7:13:27 PM PDT by oblomov
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To: Fireone

Price is always a function of supply and demand; why fill vaults with silver instead of gold? Unless you think that gold is too high (which given the historical ratios, is an impossible case to make if you’re also saying silver is going to go higher).


37 posted on 04/23/2011 7:19:49 PM PDT by Yet_Again
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To: oblomov

True, silver moves on black swan events, it isn’t a black swan in and of itself. Further, on the link I posted, most of those events are not really black swans.

The Japanese Earthquake would be a black swan. The markets just seemed to shrug that off. The endless printing is not really a black swan. Will the markets continue to shrug that off (or eat it up, as the case seems to be)?


38 posted on 04/23/2011 7:28:35 PM PDT by bluefish (NoBama! Because Commies Suck)
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To: bluefish

bttt


39 posted on 04/23/2011 7:32:06 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: bluefish
I don't think silver prices are any sort of anomaly. Coin collecting is an old way of saving. There is no loss, with silver due to deflation of the dollar, aka"inflation" as the socialists call it. Some will even argue they are two separate things. HA! For years most people had no reason to collect silver coins, in an quantity. Now, they have a reason.
40 posted on 04/23/2011 7:40:14 PM PDT by MAGICAL CHICAGO CRIME PUPPET
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