Hey Ben Bernanke, are $5 Wheaties a fluke?

Christian Science Monitor ^ | 04/27/2011 | Bill Bonner

[SeekAndFind]

We’ve always wondered why there is so much debate about the rate of inflation. It seems like such a simple thing to track. You go in the store. You buy a box of Wheaties. You write down the price. Next month, you do the same thing. What’s so hard about that?

But what if the box is smaller next month? What if the Wheaties are twice as good? What if you can get the same enjoyment from a box of Wheatie-Puffs at half the price?

What’s the real rate of inflation? It depends on how you figure it. The Labor Department shows consumer price inflation at barely over 2%. John Williams’ ShadowStats puts the figure close to 8%.

We say “close to” and “about” because the numbers are never more than approximations; no point in dressing them up with decimals as though they were precise and reliable.

But comes now MIT University with a project to track prices by monitoring them on the worldwide web. Instead of creating a small sample of prices and checking them periodically, the Billion Prices Project looks at a huge number of prices from all over the web, in real time.

The resulting numbers may not be perfect, but there sure are a lot of them. Using such a huge volume of price information, the Billion Prices Project is probably the most reliable measure of consumer price inflation developed so far.

So, you’re probably wondering… Well, what’s the story? How much consumer price inflation is there?

Over the last 12 months, prices have gone up 3.2%, say professors Alberto Cavallo and Roberto Rigobon, who developed the index.

But get this, the rate of consumer price inflation is speeding up. Annualize the data from the last 3 months and you get 7.4%.

[RnMomof7]

And those Wheaties and the gas you used to get there are not counted in the cost of living ... now your new cell phone is ...

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

***The Labor Department shows consumer price inflation at barely over 2%.****

I remember whe Wheaties were 45 cents for a BIG box. But then, we still had REAL SILVER quarters and dimes.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: now your new cell phone is ...

I can’t eat my iPhone.

[Iron Munro]

Almost everyone in the country knows the problem is the devalued dollar resulting from Obama's profligate spending and Bernanke's printing of more and more dollars to keep Obama afloat.

But they pretend it is a big mystery and are trying to convince us they are looking for clues so they can identify the real culprits.

Maybe these amateur Sherlocks should get some tips from OJ who is still looking for the real killers in his own Kabuki drama.

[wbill]

I might be oversimplifying things, but all of that money that the Fed is pumping into the economy has to go somewhere.

Think back to 2008 when people were jumping out of the market. All that money needed to go into something. Oil went to the moon, and so did bonds. At least, before everything crashed and a whole lot of money got vaporized.

Right now, IMHO, The market (in general), some commodities, and Oil, are all well over-valued. I think that we're getting set up for another significant correction. I don't think that it will be a 2008-type crash, because there was a whole lot more stupidity at work (that got weeded out, and hasn't had time to regrow....) But 10-15% wouldn't surprise me in the least, and likely it will be after the Q2 earnings reports, when companies learn that people really DON'T have much money to throw around when unemployment, gas prices, and food costs are all high.

But what the hell, if you ask 3 Freepers what the market will do, you can get 5 opinions. Mine is no more valuable than anyone else's.

[JustaDumbBlonde]

My DH and I drove to a small down about 90 minutes away to try a seafood buffet that we’ve heard a lot about. Food was okay and the price was reasonable ... UNTIL we stopped and thought that we had spent $45 in fuel to go eat a $35 meal. That stung.

[bert]

Inflation compounded at 7.4% annually will halve the debt in 58 months or eliminate it in 9.8 years.

That is the only way it will be eliminated, by inflating it away.

We can only hope the looked for rate is only 7.4 % and not higher.

[ml/nj]

But what if the box is smaller next month? What if the Wheaties are twice as good? What if you can get the same enjoyment from a box of Wheatie-Puffs at half the price?

Scott never seems to monkey with the benchmark roll of toilet paper. ($1.07 when I looked a few weeks ago)

ML/NJ

[familyop]

"You buy a box of Wheaties."

No. I won't buy anything that I don't need, until we see new leadership in government, business and academia.

Oh, and a "fluke" is a fish.

[RnMomof7]

I hear that ... I am cutting down on the number of miles I drive.. and I have to admit I get my gas at a local indian reservation ..I will be darned if I will pay the fed taxes on the gas... every cent it goes up is more money for the liberals to waste

[RnMomof7]

I do not know if it is just I am OLD.. but it was not long ago it was 50 cents..

[RnMomof7]

Ohhh and one more thing...it is no longer 2 ply..so you have to use 2xs as much

[RnMomof7]

That was my thought when Clintons administration changed the items in the inflation guidelines ...but notice Bush did nothing to change it..cause they save a bunch on cost of living increases

[ml/nj]

The Benchmark roll has always been 1000 sheets, single ply.

ML/NJ