The fact that Jack Davis ran twice for the seat as a Democrat (in 2004 and 2006 IIRC) makes it unlikely that he’ll take as many votes away from the Republican as the Democrat. Does Corwin have the Conservative Party endorsement?
She’s got the Conservative and Independence lines.
I’m not worried about Davis, I don’t think there are enough idiots who will see “TEA” and vote for him.
This doesn’t feel at all like our 2 recent special losses in NY. Corwin appears to be a competent candidate. And the rat, a county clerk, doesn’t seem like much.