Would a “Candidate Paul Ryan” be the second-coming of Goldwater, or a “black swan” President?

Hotair ^ | 04/29/2011 | Patrick Ishmael

[SeekAndFind]

This isn’t so much an analytical post first, but an invitation to a conversation. Paul Ryan’s supporters have been making waves the last few days by raising the possibility that he might run for President. So, let’s talk about it, both here and on Twitter.

Conventional wisdom portrays entitlements as the “third rail” of American politics. Entitlement reform is a notoriously risky political minefield, and so most politicians usually don’t bother trying. Yet despite the CW, Paul Ryan has rolled out a plan to address this very issue, and one that has garnered considerable support from his partymates.

But where is he leading them, and where would he lead the party in 2012? To put the headline another way, which is the more likely scenario if Ryan ran for President, and why?

1. Ryan becomes an ideological hero-candidate doomed to a spectacular defeat in a general election; - OR -
2. a dark horse Ryan candidacy marches to victory, fundamentally changes government, and later both events are justified as obvious and expected outcomes?

For those unfamiliar with what a “black swan” is, Wikipedia has a handy three-part definition for what factors constitute such an event, so I’ll reproduce that here:

1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. The event has a major impact.
3. After its first recording, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected (e.g., the relevant data were available but not accounted for).

“Black swans” are generally more about events than people — ex. World War II, the Internet, etc. — but I think a Presidency that would make an overhaul of entitlements central to its platform would, in the narrow context of the American political landscape, be an event of magnitude great enough to be termed this way. A run of this nature would directly contradict long-standing CW. And because the effect would be so great, I can’t imagine an election where Ryan would kinda sorta lose, or kinda sorta win. Seems to me it’d either be a blow-out, our a massive sea change.

But what do you think? Would a Ryan run be an “epic win” or an electoral disaster? Or something in between? I look forward to your thoughts.

[Migraine]

I think he might be the second coming of Goldwater. Maybe slightly worse, but close. Let’s see — how many states did Goldwater lose?

[rightwingextremist1776]

Different times....different country.....

How many did RINO McCain lose again?

[dforest]

I might prefer Allen West.

[ilgipper]

how would you possibly come to that conclusion?

[FrankR]

Isn't it amazing that the mainstream media - that bastion of atheism and Christian bashing - is the first to toss around terms like the "second coming" when they need the comparison to take a dig at someone.

These clueless, mindless reporters live to hand KKK robes on anyone that doesn't support the obamareich, but this is happening in a time when the same obamareich has gone a long way in making the race card null and void.

We're willing to be tolerant, but not to have obamash*t rubbed in our faces. Neither obama, holder, or many of holder's peoples understand that fact...to their own detriment.

People with functioning brains know that there is - and will never be - a "second coming" of Goldwater, or any other figure from the past that the left needs to use for "identity matching" purposes - hell they can't even get a proper identity on their own choice for president.

Paul Ryan is no more "Goldwater" than obama is "Reagan"...it doesn't work that way and the adults in this society know that. The lefty base to which they are aiming these correlations don't have the intelligence to know WHO Goldwater was, or how to look it up.

[UncleSam]

Why not! IMHO, a clean articulate white guy with about as much street experience as a community organizer. Graduated from Miami Ohio 1995 and became a congressperson in 1999.

During the 90’s he did internships, speech writing and other support level stuff for various elected officials. He knows the ropes, the language, and has the look. Great hair!

All I’m saying is; this type of unreal existence that he lives requires that he have adult supervision at all times.

[Migraine]

I have no desire to watch mccain reruns. My comment is based solely upon the ignorance of the American electorate.

Paul Ryan is out there doing God’s work. Trouble is, the work he is doing is highly demagogue-able. Secondly, I think it’s inevitable that the ignorant would confuse him with Rand Paul and/or Ron Paul.

I have very little confidence in the masses.

Hence, my answer. No offense intended.

[Migraine]

See my response #8...

[rightwingextremist1776]

I take a more positive approch. I believe a whole lot more Americans are WIDE AWAKE now....the time for a good conservative to take the lead is at hand.....

[PGR88]

Trump, for better or worse, has shown Republicans the way.

Speak forcefully and clearly about Obama. Attack Obama and his stupid policies everywhere and at all times.

Showing fake respect for Obama out of fear of political correctness will NOT work.

[lonevoice]

bfl

[Georgia Girl 2]

“I might prefer Allen West”

Ditto

[ilgipper]

I would suggest a response similar to the one in post 10. Americans have never been more alert to the issues than they are today. In addition, Ryan has incredibly good communication skills.....and that’s the key. This is why we see a republican governor in NJ right now, who blew by the media and leftists to address. The real problems and go around the media BS.

The fact that polls this week show seniors on board with Ryan’s plan will back this up. Basically a fairly little known committee head is at least playing even with a sitting president and the media distortions. Ryan is not a right wing ideologue like Goldwater in any way. Goldwater was.solid on the issues but did not have the campaign presence to win an election. Reagan won landslides with effectively the same platform because he had the communication skills to being people to our views.

[9YearLurker]

The look? Great hair?

That widow’s peak doesn’t work at all! Eddie Munster for president.

[scrabblehack]

Wikipedia is a poor source. “Black swan” comes from one of Juvenal’s satires. It does refer to a rare event, but those other two factors are not supported by the text of the poem. So the definition you cite is just someone’s opinion.

You might say it refers to a woman so beautiful you cannot stand her.

Even recent low-budget film makers have touted their films as potential “black swans.” They often don’t pan out.

Only one sitting U.S. Representative has ever been elected President, James Garfield in 1880.

If elected, Ryan would be a rare event, yes.