THE BIG WINNER: ROMNEY

Dick Morris .com ^ | May 16,2011 | Dick Morris And Eileen McGann

[Hojczyk]

Now that two of the top three candidates for the Republican nomination have pulled out of the race, the big winner is the one candidate left standing: Mitt Romney.

The polling before Huckabee and Trump pulled out was — in my survey — Romney-22, Huckabee-20, Trump-15, Gingrich-11, Palin-9, Bachmann-6, Pawlenty-3, and Daniels-2.

Now, Romney will inherit a large proportion of the votes left on the table by Huckabee’s and Trump’s withdrawal. My polling suggests that, based on the expressed second choices of the Huckabee and Trump voters, Romney will get 30% of Huckabee’s voters and 40% of Trump’s. These additions should lift him over 30% of the vote and give him a 2:1 lead over the nearest contender (Gingrich).

Romney was having a terrible week. His speech on health care was terrible. With Massachusetts up in arms over Romney-care and Republicans dead set against the individual and employer mandate, his failure to repudiate his program would have cost him dearly. But now he is sitting on top of the world.

Republicans are a legitimist group. Having run before and paid his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive. He is seen as most likely to handle the economy successfully and most likely to defeat Obama. He new has the decided edge.

Gingrich, Bachmann, Daniels, and Pawlenty are the obvious other beneficiaries of the shifting cast of characters.

For Newt, the key is the debates that begin on June 7. (Tune into on to dickmorris.com for my play-by-play commentary — in writing — on the debate as it unfolds and for my video commentary on it as soon as it is over). If Newt can establish that his intellectual and rhetorical prowess can overcome his personal negatives, he could be on his way to a strong run at the nomination. But perhaps they won’t be enough. We’ll see.

For Bachmann, the key is to announce right away, first to keep Palin out of the race (Huckabee’s withdrawal will encourage her to run) and to lay claim to the evangelicals and Tea Party folks who would have backed Mike. Recent polling shows that the evangelicals and the Tea Party supporters are substantially the same people. They would be the base of a Bachmann candidacy and Michele needs to go out and claim them.

For Daniels, the withdrawal of Trump opens the way for him to become the main establishment business community rival to Romney. And Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the door for conservatives to support him as well. He needs also to announce soon to get into the fray.

For Pawlenty, the withdrawals may open the way into the race. With candidates as formidable as Trump and Huckabee sitting on their vote shares, there was little the former Minnesota Governor could do to get a word in edgewise. Now the way is open for him to get into the fray.

But the big, big winner is Romney. It is now a rebuttable presumption that Romney will likely be the nominee. And that’s huge.

[chicagolady]

Dick Morris is a HACK!

He wrote this Pro-Romney article because Karl Rove told him to!

[Opinionated Blowhard]

LOL. Morris is at it again. This will be just as accurate as his prediction of a Clinton - Giuliani 2008 contest.

[Mr. K]

Until Sarah Palin comes along ans shoo’s him out of the way

enjoy it while you can “Mitt”

I will NOT vote for you even if it means sitting home (I will not for for obambi either, duh)

[Puppage]

Republicans are a legitimist group.

A group of what?

Having run before and paid his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive.

Since when is the fact that one has run in the past a positive the 2nd time around? How does THAT make you attractive?

[alicewonders]

I’ve noticed a subtle change at FOX - Romney is their guy.

The fix is in.

[smalltownslick]

I love this image! Could someone create it?

[Biggirl]

Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORMON.

[Grunthor]

I’ll back him if he wins the nomination, but lets make sure it never comes to that, huh?

[Hojczyk]

Open primaries favor Mit...GOP will just have Rinos til they close the primaries..

[wk4bush2004]

“Until Sarah Palin comes along ans shoo’s him out of the way”

Absolutely right! Once Sarah announces, Romney’s funds will suddenly dry up and he will free-fall in the polls. Sarah has far more support than the liberals and RINOs realize.

[FrankR]

Sarah is playing rope-a-dope with them and they just don't know it.

But, the left will push Romney to be our candidate by cross voting at the polls in the primary...McCain redeux

[Dr. Sivana]

Republicans are a legitimist group.

Yeah, like Pat Robertson beating the sitting vice president in Iowa, or TV pundit and author Pat Buchanan winning New Hampshire in 1996.

These polls mean nothing at this point. The seeds that Romney and Gingrich have planted will only grow into thistles choking their campaign given time. I betcha Dick Morris figured that the Cubs would have won a few more division championships because they were ahead in the middle of May.

Huck's votes will go to a credible social conservative. They ain't going to P.P. McRomney. Palin, Bachmann, Cain, even T-Paw and Daniels have more credibility.

[A. Morgan]

Looks like Dick has been hanging around the race track too much, again! Dick, you are full of horsehocky!

[onyx]

[joe fonebone]

"Recent polling shows that the evangelicals and the Tea Party supporters are substantially the same people."
I buy into the tea party, but am not an evangelical.....am I an anomoly??

[brownsfan]

Romney is a disaster, but I’d vote for him in a heartbeat over Obama.

The big trick here is to find someone we can live with that the squishy middle will vote for.

[chainsaw]

This sounds like the democrats are trying to pick the republican candidate again, like they did for 2008, with RINO McNasty the blindsider.

They know Romney doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the WH! While Palin and Bachmann both could easily beat Zero.

Give me Palin or Bachmann or both.

[Scanian]

No bull.

You really have to wonder how that fat toad stays employed.

[American Quilter]

This will be just as accurate as his prediction of a Clinton - Giuliani 2008 contest.

Didn't he write a book based on a Hillary-Condi race? He was wrong about that, too. What REALLY ticks me off is that he said last night on "Hannity" that Newt was right to say what he did about Paul Ryan's budget.

It appears to me that both Romney and Newt are trying to prevent Obamacare from being repealed; they want to "tweak" and "improve" it. Nothing could be more disastrous for our country. Paul Ryan's budget bill MUST be passed, and a true conservative, like Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman, or (my preference) Herman Cain must be elected in 2012.