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Iran may be two months from bomb, two new studies say
National Post, with files from Reuters ^ | 2011-06-07 | Peter Goodspeed

Posted on 06/08/2011 5:23:28 AM PDT by Clive

Iran may be two months away from being able to create a nuclear bomb and there is little the international community can do to stop it, two new studies say.

Using data released last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles and the operations of its nuclear program, U.S. weapons expert Gregory Jones calculates it could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb in just eight weeks.

“It is unclear what actions the U.S. or Israel could take (short of militarily occupying Iran) that could now prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons,” Mr. Jones wrote in a study published last week by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre.

“The reality is that both the U.S. and Israel have failed to prevent Iran from gaining the ability to produce nuclear weapons whenever Iran wishes to do so. It is time to recognize this policy failure and decide what to do next, based on a realistic assessment of Iran’s uranium enrichment efforts,” he said.

Mr. Jones’ calculations come as Yukiya Amano, the IAEA’s director, chastised Iran for not co-operating with international nuclear inspectors. He said Monday some aspects of its nuclear activities may be linked to a weapons program.

The IAEA chief has demanded Tehran open a list of sites for inspections, after the agency received information indicating a “possible military dimension” to the nuclear work.

But on Tuesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the head of the IAEA of doing the bidding of Washington and said no offer from any world power would stop it from enriching uranium.

“I have said before that Iran’s nuclear train has no brake and no reverse gear … We will continue our path,” [...]

(Excerpt) Read more at fullcomment.nationalpost.com ...


TOPICS: Canada; Foreign Affairs; Technical; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: elbaradeisbomb; elbaradeisnuke; iaeaislamicweapon

1 posted on 06/08/2011 5:23:29 AM PDT by Clive
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To: Clive
They may assemble an atomic device, but there will always be a doubt in the back of their mind “does it work?” The North Koreans have had three tests fizzle.
2 posted on 06/08/2011 5:32:55 AM PDT by 2001convSVT (Going Galt as fast as I can.)
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To: Clive

If true, it means Iran is 1 month and 3 weeks away from receiving a gift from Israel that should that should leave them smarting for a while.


3 posted on 06/08/2011 5:49:42 AM PDT by ArtDodger (Reread Animal Farm (with your kids))
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To: ArtDodger
If true, it means Iran is 1 month and 3 weeks away from receiving a gift from Israel that should that should leave them smarting for a while.

I love the sentiment and the way you expressed it, but seriously, is that the best we have to hope for in terms of foreign policy, that the tiny, socialist, bankrupt, war-weary nation of Israel will devise yet another temporary antidote to this disease called Iran?

Its like the Powers That Be created and nurtured this monster and either want it to grow up and do what it was designed to do, or at some point it went rogue to where no one can control it and its parents are denying they had anything to do with it.

4 posted on 06/08/2011 6:00:25 AM PDT by The Theophilus (Obama's Key to win 2012: Ban Haloperidol)
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To: ArtDodger

“If true, it means Iran is 1 month and 3 weeks away from receiving a gift from Israel that should that should leave them smarting for a while.”

In wondering what that “gift” might be, I was thinking it might be that their new president would be some official from their Department of agriculture because no higher ranking individual would be found after Isreal’s non-nuclear strikes.

Interesting times.


5 posted on 06/08/2011 6:10:48 AM PDT by UnChained (Obama is destroying the dollar...Why?)
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To: Clive

I thought their hacked computers destroyed their centrifuges, setting them back years...


6 posted on 06/08/2011 6:41:55 AM PDT by Blue Highway
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To: ArtDodger

Say Iran launches a nuclear weapon against Israel, Israel stops it over Jordan or Iraq, causing those areas to be radioactive, then the rest of the world, true to form will blame Israel for defending itself.

Hasn’t that been the case in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and then in Lebanon and the Gaza strip.

The hatred against Israel has only grown, as a result of the oil rich Muslim states changing public opinion from Israel being a David defending itself against Goliath (Muslim sates)to Israel being a Goliath. Funny thing only Israel has shrunk since 1967.


7 posted on 06/08/2011 6:47:32 AM PDT by Yulee (Village of Albion)
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To: The Theophilus

Wonderful idea, Theo, but reality is a bit different. If your boat springs a leak in the middle of the ocean, yeah, it would be nice to get her into dry dock and do the job right, but at that moment, the best thing to do might be to start bailing..Not the best fix but it might keep you alive a bit longer. The attitude of, “well, I am not going to bail because that is a temporary fix. I’ll wait until we reach shore..” is NOT the thinking of a survivor...


8 posted on 06/08/2011 6:52:30 AM PDT by ArtDodger (Reread Animal Farm (with your kids))
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To: Clive

I suspect Iranian intel is that it will take the Israelis three months to mount an attack, so they are leaking this.


9 posted on 06/08/2011 6:58:49 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Yulee
Yulee, I didn't have a nuclear option in mind, just a stop gap of some sort. I think Israel knows the seriousness of unleashing nuclear Hell as well as any country on the planet and won't do so without deep consideration.
10 posted on 06/08/2011 7:01:01 AM PDT by ArtDodger (Reread Animal Farm (with your kids))
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To: ArtDodger

Nice analogy. Not to sidetrack things but it would also apply the US energy policy and drilling for more oil.


11 posted on 06/08/2011 7:05:14 AM PDT by super7man
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To: Clive

"You're Welcome!"

12 posted on 06/08/2011 7:07:41 AM PDT by Jaxter ("Pro Aris et Focis")
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To: Jaxter

I wish History would hurry up and recognize these libs for the cankers on Democracy that they are!


13 posted on 06/08/2011 7:11:53 AM PDT by ArtDodger (Reread Animal Farm (with your kids))
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To: ArtDodger

I’m saying that Iron Dome or the larger version stops an Iranian weapon, raining down on Jordan or Iraq. Israel will still be blamed.


14 posted on 06/08/2011 7:11:55 AM PDT by Yulee (Village of Albion)
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To: Blue Highway
I thought their hacked computers destroyed their centrifuges, setting them back years...

Probably did...I expected them to have bombs several years ago.

15 posted on 06/08/2011 7:20:15 AM PDT by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
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To: Clive

I would also watch their plutonium cycle as well. The reactor got shut down after a short run due to “fuel contamination”. Plutonium production reactors (using neutron flux to convert U-238 to fissile Pu-239) tend to have short fuel run cycles.


16 posted on 06/08/2011 7:29:48 AM PDT by Fred Hayek (FUBO, the No Talent Pop Star pResident.)
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To: 6ppc

Well this article is making it sound like within a month or so Iran is going to complete a bomb and the hacked computers in Iran that destroyed their centrifuges just happened so... both cannot be true of 1) taking years for them to get back to where they were before the virus of the hacked computeres destroyed their centrifuges, or 2) they are now on a doomsday countdown with a point of no return to get completed nuked within 45 days.


17 posted on 06/08/2011 7:39:35 AM PDT by Blue Highway
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To: Clive
“I have said before that Iran’s nuclear train has no brake and no reverse gear … We will continue our path,”


18 posted on 06/08/2011 7:45:29 AM PDT by OB1kNOb (My new business is great! I make prayer rugs w/ bombs inside. Prophets are going thru the roof!)
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To: Clive

Hopefully Israel is closer on a neutron bomb. Either that or wait for the Anti-Christ to step in and sign a 7 year peace treaty with Israel that will last for 3 1/2 years.


19 posted on 06/08/2011 8:17:22 AM PDT by DonkeyBonker
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To: 2001convSVT

The North Koreans have had three tests fizzle.

DO YOU HAVE ANY INFO ON THAT? THIS IS THE FIRST I’VE HEARD THAT NONE OF THEIR TESTS WORKED PROPERLY.

TX.


20 posted on 06/08/2011 12:11:53 PM PDT by eddiespaghetti ((with the meatball eyes))
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