POLL: Palin, Romney Take Lead Among Iowa Conservatives As Early Race Tightens

Iowa Report ^ | June 8, 2011

[GonzoII]

POLL: Palin, Romney Take Lead Among Iowa
Conservatives As Early Race Tightens

Sarah Palin and recently announced candidate Mitt Romney vaulted to the top of the G.O.P. presidential field, according to a new poll of Iowa conservatives. The poll, conducted by the 2012 Iowa Report, finds Palin and Romney sharing the lead with 19% support, followed closely by Herman Cain (15%) and Michele Bachmann (12%).

Romney’s announcement of his campaign and high national profile seems to be resonating with Iowa conservatives, who moved him from single digits to the front of the pack in just one week. Palin, who continued to grab headlines even as Romney was announcing his candidacy, is showing staying power in the Hawkeye State even though she has not declared her candidacy.

For the first time, Herman Cain did not lead the Iowa Report poll, perhaps due to higher profile names grabbing the headlines. Still, he finished second among likely caucus goers. Other key findings:

--Likely caucus goers are very divided with no individual getting more than 16% of the vote and 30% now saying they are “not sure” who will ultimately win.
--Ron Paul finished third among likely caucus goers at 15%.
--Michele Bachmann steadied her support among Iowa conservatives, but trails Palin for the second consecutive week.

The 2012 Iowa Report Poll, a project of Grassfire Nation, is a special survey of Iowa conservatives conducted weekly to help measure where Iowa conservatives stand on the 2012 Republican presidential field.

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Complete 2012 Iowa Report Poll Results:

June 8, 2011

[Daisyjane69]

We’d lose.

Bachmann adds nothing and in fact fails Rule #1 of a VP candidate: she cannot even deliver her home state.

After the Rollins thing, I suspect it’s a moot point, anyway. Bachmann’s campaign was already in trouble when her “money bomb” failed. And that was a week or so ago. The Rollins thing was in the last 72 hours.

I doubt Bachmann will be a player much beyond Labor Day or Halloween. Her next problem is going to be to see if she can hang on to her house seat. Between redistricting and burning bridges with conservatives, she may have a problem.

[Daisyjane69]

Speaking of home states....

I’ve heard no one mention this, but it seems unlikely that the Mittster will be able to deliver many of his “home states.”

Evidently he now is based in SD, but there is no way he wins CA.

He might still have a home in MA, but he doesn’t win that either.

I’ve heard that he bought a little place in NH, and that is the only one he has a chance to win.

Wait, it get’s worse...go down the line of all the Republican candidates. Other than Gary Johnson of NM, Palin of AK, and possibly Pawlenty, it’s hard to find many Republican candidates that will be able to deliver their home state to the red side.

Unreal.

[The Theophilus]

Between redistricting and burning bridges with conservatives, she may have a problem.

To the casual observer there is no difference between Palin and Bachmann so one must go or split the difference.

You may have a point with the redistricting problem. Clearly they hate her back home and will Gerrymander that seat right out of existence, so moving to a friendly district or running for the presidency may be her only way to play politics in the future.

If they aren't hiring for drive-through cashier at the local McDonald's yet Corporate is scouting for a new CEO, I can understand trying to candidate for Top Gun as opposed to staying home and watching TV.

[wolfman23601]

I’m pretty certain Herman Cain would win Georgia pretty handily and if 0bama wins Utah (Huntsman), that pretty much means he won all 50 states.

[Daisyjane69]

I have thought from the beginning that Bachmann’s plan was to use this “presidential run” to build up her campaign finance machine, in order to oust Boehner from the speaker’s chair. Something he richly deserves, btw.

But this whole Rollins thing was jarring and I have to wonder if those who have claimed she made a deal with Romney might be right. I hate even thinking about this, as I’ve been a fan of hers and a contributor. I’ve never seen anyone make such a boneheaded move like this in the beginning of an enterprise. Yes, she has some very non-conservative things in her background (my posting history explains what they are) but I held out hope she was exactly as advertised. But she looks to me like someone has started to believe her own press clippings.

Pretty comical when you consider her record of non-accomplishment, at both the state and federal level. I hope she has enough brains to instruct Rollins to not get into a pissin’ match about their respective records. Because this won’t end well for MB.

What a wing ding. :(

[Diogenesis]

Mitt Romney is NOT a natural born American citizen.

We have now watched Obama (Romney’s plant when he
attacked Gov. Palin during the ‘eve’ of Election 2008)
who is not an NBC. Want another one?

[Daisyjane69]

I’m in Utah.

While I am Catholic and not LDS, I have to repeat what I’ve said before:

Palin could actually win in Utah because this is a divided state...Romney vs Huntsman. And these groups do not like each other much. The state is split right down the middle, Mormon vs. Mormon. I don’t get it, myself. I can imagine one side or the other going over to the Palin side just to piss off the other side.

It’s like Browns vs Steelers.

[MNnice]

I love how the chattering class still mentions Huntsman as a first tier candidate to watch whenever they discuss the campaign and Herman Cain never gets a mention.

They are so out of touch.

[RightOnline]

Color me lost. I’m no political neophyte....but explain how Bachmann’s hiring of Rollins is supposedly some “very public backstabbing of Sarah Palin”???

[sand lake bar]

Mitt Romney certainly is a natural born citizen. Your dogma belies your Freeper name. And this has nothing to do with my political opinion of Romney. I just think facts are facts and law is law.

[Sybeck1]

Rubio

[kevkrom]

explain how Bachmann’s hiring of Rollins is supposedly some “very public backstabbing of Sarah Palin”???

It's not the hiring of Rollins itself, it was that hiring followed by Rollins making some rather ungenerous comments, which has the force of coming from the Bachmann campaign (and Rollins can't feign ignorance on that, as he's been doing this job long enough).

[ansel12]

Yeah, I wasn’t totally alert that late at night, and now here I am before coffee, Romney should have done worse against conservatives.

[9YearLurker]

It was a strange poll for them to be taking, anyway.